New Jersey 2008

[DownWithTheLeft]

Really only if Rudy is the nominee

[DownWithTheLeft]

Gporter, you seem to know nothing.  You say b/c your history teacher told you it must be a fact?  Come on, give me a break.  Guiliani would not win NJ, stick to making an argument for New Jersey which is possible.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Let me thirdly remind you that the New Jersey NYC commuters also mostly dislike Giuliani for the commuter tax reform during his mayoralty. he stands no chance in New York, and almost certainly no chance in New Jersey. You are the one being hackish.

That may be the case up where you are but in the heavy commuter areas in Somerset/Morris counties he couldn't be more popular.

And Bush won Somerset and Morris in 2004. A lot of good it did him in winning New Jersey.

He didn't win by amazing margins, if Guiliani could pull in 70%+ of the vote in those counties he would win the state

[DownWithTheLeft]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

[DownWithTheLeft]

Also on a diffrent note which counties would a Republican Presidental canidate have to flip and how well would a Republican Presidental canidate have to do in the soildly Republican parts of the state in order to win it.

Win Bergen win the state usually (except for Franks in 2000 who also lost by 2%), so Guiliani could do that (not that hard), flip Passaic and push 40 in Hudson and Essex he would win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Let's get some things straight about New Jersey, past and present.

(1) The New Jersey Democratic Party is not weak.  The only thing that matters in New Jersey is money, and Democrats are flush with it.  And unlike their feuding days of the 1990s, Democrats are remarkably united despite there being a different political boss for North and South Jersey.

Agree to an extent, however, I think that the candidates they put out are so corrupt it might eventually catch up

(2) No New Jersey Republican is going to lose friggin' OCEAN County any time soon.  It is easily the most Republican shore county -- more so than Monmouth, Atlantic, and even Cape May.

Of course

(3) Mark Foley was a MAJOR reason why Tom Kean Jr. lost -- even Wally Edge of PoliticsNJ backs me up on this point.  Dispute it if you will, but Kean's lead instantly evaporated the moment the Foley scandal broke.  He very well may have lost anyway, but Foley was KEY in Kean's numbers ending as badly as Forrester's.

Kean had all the momentum and would have won by at least 3 points had the Foley scandal not hit.

(4) Giuliani wouldn't get 40 in Hudson and certainly not in Newark-dominated Essex.  But I'd expect him to easily carry Bergen and to strongly compete in Middlesex, Passaic, and Mercer, which is why he'd carry the state.  He'd probably run strong enough to carry Burlington, too -- it's really not that Democratic a county.

Why would he be so strong in Bergen consider the recent trending to the contrary?

(5) It is absolutely mindblowing that someone could think that Bush would be a stronger candidate than Giuliani in New Jersey.  My f-ing God, do you not understand the concept of the favorite son?  Commuters love the guy -- and why shouldn't they?

Giuliani wins NJ easily

[DownWithTheLeft]

We are only 7 years removed from Franks ALMOST beating Corzine