2008 Senate Races - Bad Map for Republicans

[DownWithTheLeft]

Don't forget Oklahoma.  Sen. Jim Inhofe is highly unpopular back at home.  Its likely, that a good Democrat could knock Inhofe off and reclaim an Oklahoma seat for the Democrats for the first time since 1994 when then Sen. David Boren retired to assume the presidency of the University of Oklahoma and Sen. Jim Inhofe was elected.

Oklahoma is trending Democratic, as well.  We just re-elected a Democratic Governor by an overwhelming margin in 2006 against a highly respected Oklahoma Republican Former Congressman Ernest Istook of CD-5.

Oklahoma will still probably go Republican in 2008 for the Presidency, but it won't be by as large of a margin as 2004.  The GOP candidate will struggle to reach 55%, with most likely around 53 or 54%.

I would put Oklahoma Senate from the safe Republican to barely lean Republican, possibly Republican-leaning toss-up.

It pays to dream....

Sounds a lot like my hopes in NJ

[DownWithTheLeft]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

[DownWithTheLeft]

New Jersey - Strong Dem.  You can't rule out the GOP 100% here, considering that Frank Lautenberg's numbers aren't exactly stellar, the fact that he's never been a good campaigner (and is definitely getting worse with age), and the fact that he's never actually won an election by a double digit margin.  And while the NJ GOP never wins these races, they've been at least competitive in every Senate race here since 1984.  Still, the best the GOP has to offer in the state are likely to pass, leaving the nomination to a Kean family loyalist like businesswoman Anne Estabrook (who?) or a conservative activist who won't stand a snowball's chance in hell.

While I don't think we will win this race now that Christie is not running (look for him to take Menendez's open seat when he goes to prison), we have at least two good candidates in Assemblyman Bill Baroni and Morris County Freeholder John Murphy who had a strong showing in the 2005 govenor primary.  Except Lautenberg to win by a little less than Menendez since he will have a tougher opponent most likely and less friendly waters.  With a generic presidential candidate except a 51-47 Lautenberg win, with Guilliani on top, it's 50-50 anyone's race

[DownWithTheLeft]

I agree with Harry that if Cochran does not retire, Mississippi is safe GOP, if Cochran does retire, Mississippi could go Democrat, especially with the Democrats hatred of Trent Lott, the Junior Mississippi Senator.

I would also add, again, that Oklahoma is definitely not safe GOP.  It is lean GOP, possibly an unsung swing state in the Senate race.  Jim Inhofe is not very popular in Oklahoma right now, and the Oklahoma Democratic Party, a VERY strong party, will mount every effort possible to unseat Inhofe.

Wow, you me and Harry should get together someone and dream about what could be in our states