Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[DownWithTheLeft]

How I feel it will look going into Election Day (not necessarily today, I'm using state trends, corruption issues, and a little bit of poll swings)

Strong Rep:
AZ
IN
ME
MS
NV
TX
UT
WY

Likely Rep:
VA
TN
MO

Tossup Lean GOP:
PA
NJ (D)
MD (D if Mfume wins primary)
MT (causes Tester is an awful campaigner)

Tossup Lean Dem:
RI (Chafee)
OH (R)
MD (Cardin)

Likely Dem:
RI (Laffey)
WA
MI
MN
VT

Solid Dem:
CA
DE
FL
HI
MA
NE
NM
NY
ND
WV
WI

So, if the GOP wins all tossups that I predict, they gain +2, Dems +4.  Given my ratings I think it will either by split or +1 Dems.  This ridiculous gains aren't going to happen, especially if gas continues to falls.

I went through individual races once applying the same standards and got about +5 or 6 for Dems, not enough to take it back.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why are listing NJ as Leans GOP but not a gain?  Was that a typo?