Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[DownWithTheLeft]

It is going to in the House, but in the senate I don't know.

Again, just trying to steer away from the fact Bob Menendez is collapsing as I correctly predicted he would.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The races remain close when Governors appoint senators. The independents usually wait until to last minute to decide if an appointee is fit to be fully elected. Remember, Knowles was leading Murkowski and then the independents broke late and broke for Murkowski. The same thing happened in 2002 with jean Carnahan. The independents wait until the last minute when deciding on an appointee.

Apprently the Indys must have broke away from Jean Carnahan, considering she lost.  That is an awful analogy.  Plus, Alaska is much more Republican than NJ is Democrat.  And Lisa Murkowski was part of a political machine, the state had numerous corrupt officials since the last statewide election, and she had nothing that awful against her.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am talking about MO senate race in 2002 against John Ashcroft not 2004. As far as AK Knowles had the lead all the way through, independents wait untill the end to decide. I didn't say decide on the incumbant. I just said decide.

That might be the most idiotic thing I ever heard simply because it could not be true by an stretch of the imagination.  Jean Carnahan ran in one election and that was in 2002, and lost, she never won.  The 2004 MO senate race involved Kit Bond.  MEL Carnahan ran against John Ashcroft in [2000] w/the governor promising to appoint Jean to take the seat.  So what you say is untrue factually.

[DownWithTheLeft]

But she was going to be the appointee. But in Ak the independents broke late for Murkowski and she was the appointee, I expect the independents to break for Menendez. And Fairleigh Dickinson had NJ a close race all along in 2004 and it wasn't even close. And Quinnipiac had the race essentially tied in 2004. So, if you are relying on those two polls it is risky business. I meant 2000, maybe MO is a bad example but the 2004 AK senate race is a good example. Look, Dems outnumber republicans in the state, I expect the Dems to pull it out. Just like you said Republicans outnumber Dems in AK, I expect Menendez to pull it out due to the same thing. 

I'm not a blind partisan who relies solely on polls that help me, but you have your blinders on to all the problems plauging Menendez, but you seem to think Abramoff will hurt Kean.  That is lunacy at its best.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am saying that it will play a roll. I am saying the registration in Dems will help out Menendez. Also, he has more money than Kean as well. When the ads start flowing Menendez can come. I am saying that eventhough Kean is ahead right now, Menendez can come back. He isn't down yet.

The scandals are just beginning to unfold.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean is ahead right now.

Finally, you have admitted it

[DownWithTheLeft]

This race is a tossup and it can go either way.

Its not a tossup until we see at least two more polls confirm this result....and lets everyone remember that Menendez isn't an incumbant in the true sense. No one has ever voted for him for senator before. He is still new to most voters.

This race isn't a tossup?  The only way it isn't a tossup is if you have Kean w/the advantage.  Menendez is engulfed w/scandal and Corzine's buddy....and all the other aforementioned things I talked about.  Kean has a slight adv at this point, and that can't be denied after the Rasmussen showing up 5 is released (an 11 point swing).  To say it is not a tossup it is still leaning Menendez shows maybe you aren't following this race too closely.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean is ahead right now and will go on to victory

That is what you meant to say based on the rest of that statement, but then you changed.  When the entire state of NJ becomes Hudson County, let me know.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am saying as long as it is withn the margin of error and I will not count Menendez out.  This race will pend on the debates, the three debates that are coming up.

And Bob Menendez is a smooth talker, but Kean has more substance to what he has to say, all he has to do is keep saying "Corzine" and the debate is his.  Menendez is "done" so to say, but Kean is certainly showing he will win this race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

But Menendez has more money and can run more ads and we will see if the more money Menendez has will help when the ads start rolling.

And Kean's father hitting the trail will certainly neutralize that.  Menendez doesn't have anyone to boost his campaign, having Jon Corzine tag along doesn't exactly help.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Clinton and Hillary may not help when campaigning but they are money bags and Clinton and Hillary's fundraising machine and NY being so close to NJ can certainly help Menendez.

Are you just coming up w/stupid things that may or may not help Menendez?  Why don't you just acknowledge he is in deep s*it.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yes, Kean is ahead and will win this race

That is more like it, Kean will play the corruption issue so well as he already has demonstarted, and his father will neutralize any Menendez ad campaigning.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am saying that President Clinton lost 12 seats in the 1992 and the monica lewinsky scandle was used in the 2004 election. If the republicans didn't care about it why did they use it in all their ads. The Dems were suppose to take control of the House, eventhough they gain seats. The people punished the republicans because they wanted censure. The GOP used Monica just like the Dems used Watergate, we have a difference of opinion about that. Bush wouldn't have used Monica in his ads. And he kept saying over and over again Clinton broke the oath of office.

 stupid.

That sums it up pretty well

[DownWithTheLeft]

I predict Menendez 53, Kean 46.

Menendez wins (unlikely):
Menendez 49 - Kean 48

Kean wins (most likely scenario):
Kean 52 - Menendez 47

[DownWithTheLeft]

No one knows if the ML affected the 2000 election cycle, but Al Gore picked Lieberman to blunt the criticism of Bush concerning ML and Gephardt and Gore blamed Clinton.  As for NJ, Kean leads among registered voters and Menendez leads among likely voters.  DeWine trailes in the latest Gallup poll among registered and likely voters.

First of all, that is crap.  If ML affected NJ, then that makes Bush's gain in 04' even more impressive.  Hey, I changed OH now change NJ like you said.  You said, "I'll change NJ when you change OH."  I changed OH, where's you r edit?

And stop quoting Gallup or Zogby!

At least Conan just says I'm desperate but doesn't say stupids reasons that probably don't even help Menendez.

[DownWithTheLeft]

CHANGE NJ, I CHANGED OH OR LOSE WHATEVER SLIVER OF RESPECT THAT WAS LEFT

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not until he is leading among likely voters.

CHANGE YOU LITTLE HYPOCRIT, YOU SAY IF I CHANGED OH YOU'D CHANGE NJ, BUT NOW BECAUSE YOU ARE THE STUPIDEST PERSON WALKING THE FACE OF THE EARTH YOU WILL NOT.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Don't you realize that Rasmussen is a libertarian and he overstates polls in MO and RI and understates it in NJ. I would caution you on his polls. He said Whitehouse was leading by six and McCaskill was ahead and they both wind up trailing.  As for monica lewinsky, it contributed to Gore pulling out in 2004 and it affected Hillary's decision not to run. It may not have a big contributing factor in the race, but by Gore and Hillary being associated with Bill it may them associates of the crime.

MAY I CAUTION YOU GALLUP AND ZOGBY F**KED UP THE 04' ELECTION AND RASMUSSEN DIDN'T?  MAY I REMIND YOU THAT THE TWO POLLS CAME OUT BOTH SHOWING BIG GAINS FOR KEAN?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Don't you realize that Rasmussen is a libertarian and he overstates polls in MO and RI and understates it in NJ. I would caution you on his polls. He said Whitehouse was leading by six and McCaskill was ahead and they both wind up trailing.  As for monica lewinsky, it contributed to Gore pulling out in 2004 and it affected Hillary's decision not to run. It may not have a big contributing factor in the race, but by Gore and Hillary being associated with Bill it may them associates of the crime.

Ok, you're officially insane. I hope you're banned because you're completely out of your mind.

Please, I'll help

[DownWithTheLeft]

Rasmussen is a libertarian and he isn't nonpartisan. As for me being insane,  Monica played a role but a small one and the Republicans used it in all of their campaign ads in 2000. I am not insane, I just happen to disagree with you.  As for Rasmussen until he proves he isn't all over the map with his polls I would consider using his polls. He is just as nonpartisan as Zogby is.  Both are very much partisans.

What are you talking about?  Rasmussen is an independent pollster, do you expect him to vote, of course he has a preference but his polls don't show it.  He correctly predicted every single state in 2004, Zogby did not come close to that.  Are you on drugs, and I some serious ones?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not insane I am not priceless. And every single historian said Monica Lewinsky helped defeat Al Gore in the presidential race. If you are arguing with me, you are arguing with historians.

As for Rasmussen he uses small samples, and his questions aren't phase the same way like the other polls.  If you phrase a question differently then you will respond differently.  Zogby uses a different set of questions and he has 900 voters, Rasmussen only uses 500 likely voters.

Ok, you tell me which one was more accurate in 2004?  BTW, the correct answer is Rasmussen

[DownWithTheLeft]

I just think that we can just disagree on this on Monica Lewinsky and NJ polls. But I will tell you that hadn't Monica Lewinsky hadn't happened or 911 hadn't happened the Dems would be controlling the House and the WH right now.

How can we disagree on polls?  There numbers, there math, there's nothing to be disagreeing on.  Polls show Kean in the lead, unless your more of an idiot than I thought you were, your method would say change now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I just think that we can just disagree on ...NJ polls.

That is exactly what you said w/Monica Lewinsky thrown in the middle, you are John Kerry flip-flopping abilites.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I just think that we can just disagree on ...NJ polls.

That is exactly what you said w/Monica Lewinsky thrown in the middle, you are John Kerry flip-flopping abilites.

Tom Kean has flipped flopped on social security and stem cells.

and immigration.

I seriously think Bob Menendez's corruption overshadows Kean changing his mind on a few issues, and he changed his opinion once, not Kerry or Olawakandi that change it w/the wind.

Come on conan, thought you were better than Olawankandi

[DownWithTheLeft]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?