Who would win a war between China and the United States over Taiwan?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Did the UK attempt a Falkland Islands campaign to save Hong Kong -- which was an overseas British province -- from Chinese expansion? And did the fact that it did not and could not banish the UK from its permanent seat at the UN security council?

The contention that, by the stage of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, a 30 trillion dollar economy becoming diminished is silly.

The US will not destroy itself trying to save an island province of China from China (as we didn't destroy ourselves saving a mostly-Russian province of Ukraine from Russia). In that sense, China will indeed win their war against the US over Taiwan -- that is, as long as the Chinese leadership isn't stupid and overtly militaristic about it.

Crimea and Taiwan are completely different. There is NO comparison at all.

Taiwan has been a self-governed country since 1949. Taiwan is NOT "an island province of China". The only reason why Taiwan doesn't have more international recognition is due to China's economic influence.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The official US position on Taiwan is "the Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China." What kind of "part" is left undefined, but the US is not sticking its head in that matter.

The basis for US-Taiwan relations is NOT the Three Communiqués but the Taiwan Relations Act & Six Assurances.


Taiwan Relations Act (excerpt):

It is the policy of the United States–

3. to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;

4. to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;

5. to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and

6. to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.


Application of Laws; International Agreements

1. Whenever the laws of the United States refer or relate to foreign countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities, such terms shall include and such laws shall apply with such respect to Taiwan.

SOURCE: https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/




Six Assurances:

1. Has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan

2. Has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan

3. Will not play a mediation role between Taipei and Beijing

4. Has not agreed to revise the Taiwan Relations Act

5. Has not altered its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan.

6. Will not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC.

SOURCE: https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/six-assurances-1982/

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

That does not in any way contradict what I posted, nor what every reputable commentary has said on the subject:

To this day, the U.S. “one China” position stands: the United States recognizes the PRC as the sole legal government of China but only acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. Thus, the United States maintains formal relations with the PRC and has unofficial relations with Taiwan. The “one China” policy has subsequently been reaffirmed by every new incoming U.S. administration. The existence of this understanding has enabled the preservation of stability in the Taiwan Strait, allowing both Taiwan and mainland China to pursue their extraordinary political and socioeconomic transitions in relative peace.

That's the last word about the status US maintains with Mainland China wrt Taiwan.

What is debatable is the extent that PRC will go to exert pressure on Taiwan to submit. The US has enough bilateral defense treaties with Taiwan to make an overt attack unfeasible, but since when have overt military action taken place since the First Gulf War?

Totally irrelevant. The "One China" policy is mute because Taiwan is NOT apart of China and most Taiwanese people want to be officially recognized as "Taiwan" not China.

However, economic and military threats from China has stopped most countries from formally recognizing Taiwan as a separate country.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

*snip*

This Congressional Research Service report from 2007:

1. The United States did not explicitly state the sovereign status of Taiwan in the three US-PRC Joint Communiques of 1972, 1979, and 1982.

2. The United States "acknowledged" the "One China" position of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

3. U.S. policy has not recognized the PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan;

4. U.S. policy has not recognized Taiwan as a sovereign country; and

5. U.S. policy has considered Taiwan's status as unsettled.

SOURCE: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=477412