OH-SEN: Who wins?

[Yoda]

Brown is running literally the perfect ads on the air here, the kind that Moreno can't replicate b/c, well, he doesn't have a long record of concrete, bipartisan accomplishments for real Ohioans with real problems that Brown has.

Brown pulls it out, but b/c of the republican lean of the state his absolute ceiling in a Presidential year will be something like 53%.

[Yoda]

The two most recent polls with Brown hitting 50% and outrunning Biden by double digits are the best polls he’s had all year. If Democrats win this one and/or Montana, even a narrow Trump win would severely limit his options. In a 50-50 Senate with a Trump VP as tie-breaker, I wouldn’t be shocked if Lisa Murkowski caucused with Dems. I really don’t get the vibe she can stomach Trump having free reign.

Can't say I know what Murkowski would do, but one thing I do know is that in the scenario described, Susan Collins would be absolutely F***ED. There's no way she survives in '26 with trump in office, let alone if she's in the position where she has to take so many tough votes constantly.