OH-9 megathread

[Yoda]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

[Yoda]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

By the time she retires, Ohio voters will have passed real gerrymandering reform through the ballot amendment process. This very likely passes this November, and if not, definitely in '26.

Without republican politicians gerrymandering the district to give it a slight republican lean, it's extremely hard to see OH-09 becoming anything other than lean dem at worst. A fairly drawn 9th district by anyone remotely serious would at it's core include Toledo and it's suburbs, Sandusky (these currently are) but add Bowling Green (and all of Wood County) while the current map intentionally cuts Wood in two and adds far-flung western counties to the district to achieve the desired partisan republican result of a lean republican district.

[Yoda]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

Also if a redistricting commission is passed she'll probably drop the western rurals in exchange for Wood County which would make her path towards re-election easier.

Ha! You beat me to it.

[Yoda]

Anyway, on to the reason I dug up this thread before I got derailed reading comments.

Kaptur's reelection was never really in doubt, considering I think she was the #2 House member in the country (only behind Peltola in Alaska I believe) as far as over performing the partisan lean of her district, but I think we can all hold a moment of silence for the death of the Majewski campaign:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ohio-jr-majewski-ableist-slur-democrats-special-olympics-2024-2

[Yoda]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Disagree. Wood is far less Republican than the rurals - in fact, such a seat would probably be narrowly D even on the presidential level. And Idt Kaptur would underperform the top of the ticket, not even against Latta.

I think some posters don't realize that the half of Wood County that it is NOT currently in the 9th is the half with Bowling Green, a large college town.