Trash this in the bin. No way is Trump at 55 % Nationally, ZERO chance.
I think you're overestimating the calibre of your party's voters.Technically, 2016 is not "overestimating" anything. The concept of "estimation" implies that someone is weighing the evidence, thinking, and forming a reasoned guess or approximation based on some form of data.
But 2016 is not doing anything of the sort. 2016 always says the same thing, regardless of circumstances, facts, or evidence, like a mindless automaton.
In 2016's world, it is always 2016. In 2016's world, the Republicans (or in this case the Republican candidate that 2016 supports in a primary) are always going to do better than expected in every election, and polls as well as any other information that indicates otherwise are dismissed without any more reason than "that makes me feel bad, I don't like it."