2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Not that I recall of. Other than Dubya 2001-2003, presidents have often controlled the senate, but not the House when they had just one chamber. Kinda funny this was the case at the beginning of House of Cards. I always dismissed it as unlikely a president would have the House, but not senate.

Well then TBH next time I suggest you should try to think more carefully rather than dismissing things, the lack of foresight here is entirely yours. The good news is you can do better in the future though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Depends how the media would cover such conflicts. At the end of the day, we're going to have to focus back on COVID-19 and getting money into people's hands and getting jobs back.

What interest does Mitch McConnell have in getting money into people's hands and getting jobs back?

None.

He would rather that the economy be bad so that Biden can be blamed for it, which should then give the GOP a chance to take back the House in 2022 and then win a Trifecta in 2024.

So there is no sense in focusing on that. Focus on the actual issues, which are entirely procedural, not substantive.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

A Republican Senate may actually help Biden govern in a more moderate way and enact sane Democratic policies supported by the majority of the people.

It will help Biden to not govern at all, meaning that no problems get solved, existing problems fester and tend to get worse, Biden gets blamed for the fact that no problems get solved because low information voters always blame the President for things regardless of whether the President is actually responsible for them, and as a result Dems are more likely to lose future elections.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Because Trump is an evil POS who deserves to be thrown out of office and looked into his legal conduct?

Also, Executive Orders are still a thing. It may sound naive, but Republicans in the senate and Biden must sit together and get at least some stuff done on criminal justice, infrastructure and economic recovery. Otherwise, frustration with the system will further increase and get the next populist in office. And this time, it may be someone who is smarter than Trump.

"Executive Orders are still a thing" - Do you honestly think that rule by executive order is a good system of government? If you were sitting in Philadelphia in 1776 wearing a whig and with a quill in your hand, do you think you would be saying to yourself, "Yes, we should have rule by executive order. Yes, we should have an ceremonially elected legislature, but the ceremonial legislature should not do anything and the President should simply rule by fiat"? (I guess maybe you might since a lot of the people writing the Constitution in 1776 were somewhat sympathetic to monarchism, but I digress)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Because Trump is an evil POS who deserves to be thrown out of office and looked into his legal conduct?

Also, Executive Orders are still a thing. It may sound naive, but Republicans in the senate and Biden must sit together and get at least some stuff done on criminal justice, infrastructure and economic recovery. Otherwise, frustration with the system will further increase and get the next populist in office. And this time, it may be someone who is smarter than Trump.

"Otherwise, frustration with the system will further increase and get the next populist in office."

- Yes, that is precisely what will occur. Frustration with the system will further increase and get the next populist in office.

And thanks to the increasing reliance on executive orders, by the way, that next populist will rule in a more authoritarian and semi-dictatorial way than Trump.

As you yourself say (without realizing it), things are likely to get worse for that reason.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Look at everything Trump has done by executive order. Biden can undo it. Plus Fauci and Wray won't be fired. Plus we'll be respected in the world again. Also probably don't have to worry about a possible war with Iran.

Also if Breyer dies or needs to retire the Republicans can't fill the seat and make it 7-2.

McConnell can simply refuse to give a hearing to anyone that Biden might nominate to replace Breyer, thus making the court 6-2 in the interim. And then the seat would only be filled the next time either the Dems control both the Presidency and the Senate, or the next time the Republicans control both the Presidency and the Senate. Given the difficulty of the Dems winning the Senate (as evidenced by the results this year, at least if they turn out as expected where Dems comfortably win the most votes nationally yet again but don't win control of the Senate), it is more likely that the GOP will be the next party to control both the Senate and the Presidency. Which then makes the court 7-2 then.

So you end up with the same result.

I am not trying to say that there are not good things about Biden winning and Trump losing; clearly there are. But don't get all starry eyed and ignore the reality of who Mitch McConnell is.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

People who are are interested enough to read and post on a political message board like Atlas, where discussion is fairly often (but not always) more substantive than facebook/twitter-level ideological droning are likely to be at least college educated (or on their way towards it) and are also likely to be more intelligent and reflective than the average person. And those are some of the primary characteristics/traits of people who have been most strongly repelled by Trump, so you would definitely expect anti-Trump Republicans to be over-represented.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why do I feel Biden might come up short?.....

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/post-traumatic-stress-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20355967

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not sure I can last much longer tonight. This week has taken its toll. My body is failing me. I think I will probably be waking up to big news in AZ and GA. Hoping for the best.

I am planning to immediately begin a 1 month period of hibernation starting immediately upon Biden's inauguration.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Agreed. The pandemic only intensified partisan polarization and deepened the loyalty of Trump's base to him, while increasing the determination of the Democratic base to get him out. It's clear from these election results that this country is split virtually 50/50 between those who despise Trump and those who support him.

If by "50-50" you mean something like ~53ish-47ish, give or take, then you would be correct. In other words, one side of this polarized split is measurably bigger than the other.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yaaaa they should be required to release vote totals on election night everywhere then, if they allow late-arriving mail ballots, release how many came in to each precinct on each day. It’s crazy that this isn’t standardized.

This sort of dysfunction is the "federalism" that so many Republicans love so much. Yes, we should have clear, consistent, transparent, and fair national elections administration standards, with clear and consistent reporting that would allow everyone to have complete confidence that all elections are always properly administered. But what are the chances that Mitch McConnell would have any interest in any such thing? Zero.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does anyone remember the 2000 election?

I was too young to really care at the time.  I know there are stark and obvious differences between then and now, but was the anxiety about the same or more intense?

I barely remember it. I think there was more anxiety about how close the race was/how it would turn out because it was closer and more legitimately up in the air (it seems pretty clear Biden is going to end up winning now without too much difficulty), but on the other hand there was more faith back then that the system would fairly resolve it (until the Supreme Court decided to put its finger on the scale). Our institutions and general public confidence in them have degraded since then, unfortunately.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling to be fortunate enough to be running in Colorado.

FTFY

lol @ "candidate quality" takes. Never change, Atlas. Never change.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-concedes-election-republicans-will-never-elect-another?__twitter_impression=true

Change the election system to what Lindsey? Popular vote because both ways you've lost? Dictatorship, so much so for the Constitution?

Change the election system to state legislatures, with maps drawn such that Republicans can’t lose control, pick Presidents. Bonus points when Roberts decides Reynolds v Sims was wrongly decided (or does one of those special ‘uphold the decision and also completely nullify it’ gambits he really likes) and both state leg members and congressmen represent districts determined by land area instead of population.

It is really frightening to see someone like Lindsey Graham saying these sorts of things. More and more I am worried that we heading towards a second civil war (not in the immediate future, but not necessarily that far off either).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TBF, he didn’t say that, he just said ‘change the system’ to what is left unsaid. But this is the proposal that’s been floating around wingnut circles for a long time.

Yeah, the thing is, like randomusername said, he can't mean to change the system to a national popular vote, because the GOP lost that 7 of the last 8 times. It sure sounds from that like Graham doesn't want to live in a country with a democratically elected government.

The especially bad part about that is:

1) Graham was literally just re-elected a few days ago. There is no real argument that he has to say this in order to win his Republican primary or something like that which might serve as an excuses (not that it would really be an excuse, but at least it could be a rationalization).
2) As far as the GOP has any "elder statesman" type figures left - someone who has been around for a while and who should be committed to upholding American institutions - Graham would (or should) probably be one of them.

If people like him are not going to help steer the GOP back towards basic American democratic values, and indeed are going to actively push it in the other direction, then God help us all. Despite Trump being defeated, there is grave danger that things are going to get worse before they get better.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah, this is basically a beer hall putsch. In other words, it is an incompetent coup, but an attempted coup nonetheless, which makes it very serious. I think we should get through this one (though any doubt at all about that is too much doubt), but the problem is that this continues to degrade democratic norms, and the next time around things may go differently.

Also note that in response to the beer hall putsch, Hitler was tried for treason, but was only imprisoned for a short amount of time (and released early), whereas the maximum penalty for treason in Weimar Germany at the time was death. Perhaps if the maximum penalty been applied, things might have turned out differently.

Over the medium-long term, supporters of democracy need to get organized and prepared, because it appears more and more that the Trumpist version of the GOP really does want civil war, and if things fall apart over the next 10-20-30 years, we could easily get there.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NYC results -

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/election_results/2020/20201103General%20Election/00000100000Citywide%20President%20Vice%20President%20Citywide%20Recap.pdf

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Its seems the NYC dump has pushed Trump very slightly under 47%, according to the APs numbers. He’s at 46.969%

Damn, even Mitt Romney got more than 47%. It has got to hurt Trumpty's ego not only losing, but being even MORE of a LOSER than Mitt Romney.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Are we going to get to 800 pages?

Probably not, but prove me wrong.