NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Florida Man for Crime]

If Bernie wins California, who finishes second?

Whoever comes in 2nd in California will be the true winner, because the only thing better than coming in 1st is coming in 2nd - probably that is Bloomberg.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Looks like all that remains for Bernie at this point is to slay the Beast of Bloomberg.

That was already accomplished (with due credit to Warren).

[Florida Man for Crime]

Excellent end to Sanders' speech in San Antonio. This is what makes him a particularly good candidate. He has a simple, clear, powerful, and consistent message.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Seems Bernie is having a night of legitimately unbiased good press.

Might be seeing the beginning of the party lining up behind him.

Yep, the party is starting to unite behind the nominee. The tone of the coverage on MSNBC is even starting to shift a bit now towards GE mode.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Bernie is just as much a narcissistic cult leader as Trump is and he's going to win the nomination the sane way Trump did: a militant base and a fractured field of opponents.

Bernie won moderates & conservatives... And 1 vs 1 against any of the other candidates, he wins in recent polls - especially against candidates like Bloomberg & Buttigieg who he beats head to head by 20+ points.

The only people in the Democratic party who are "fractured" are party elites, not so much the actual voters.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Has Warren spoken yet?

She has event in Seattle.

She is an hour late with no explanation for the delay.

[Florida Man for Crime]

484 precincts:

   Round 1   
Sanders   9709   33.2%
Biden   5695   19.5%
Buttigieg   4573   15.6%
Warren   3534   12.1%
Steyer   2643   9.0%
Klobuchar   2627   9.0%
Bennet   37   0.1%
Uncom   125   0.4%
Gabbard   100   0.3%
Yang   184   0.6%
Patrick   3   0.0%
Delaney   1   0.0%

   Round 2   
Sanders   11267   39.3%
Biden   6404   22.3%
Buttigieg   5058   17.6%
Warren   2992   10.4%
Steyer   1020   3.6%
Klobuchar   1798   6.3%
Bennet   6   0.0%
Uncom   99   0.3%
Gabbard   0   0.0%
Yang   15   0.1%
Patrick   17   0.1%
Delaney   7   0.0%

   Delegates   
Sanders   1933   46.2%
Biden   986   23.6%
Buttigieg   581   13.9%
Warren   371   8.9%
Steyer   156   3.7%
Klobuchar   141   3.4%
Bennet   4   0.1%
Uncom   4   0.1%
Gabbard   3   0.1%
Yang   0   0.0%
Patrick   1   0.0%
Delaney   0   0.0%

If those #s hold up, the delegates would be:

Sanders: 24
Biden: 11
Buttigieg: 1

congressional district breakdown of delegates here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

[Florida Man for Crime]

So what can disrupt the 4 paths? If Biden loses or has a weak win in SC, AA voters will abandon the wounded campaign for Bloomberg. Remember, all of the restorationists have horrible AA affinity (so they have no media expectations in SC) and Bernie only gets AA voters when they align with his youth campaign. So Bloomberg is somehow the least worst option, according to polls. If the restorationists don't consolidate after their home states on Tuesday, or buttigieg drops as well on Super Tuesday, then their voters will move to those that can like Biden or Bloomberg. Or they will give up the ghost and fall behind Bernie.

Polls have had Bernie Sanders getting quite a bit of Biden supporters as 2nd choice, including African American Biden supporters. This is a major part of why polls show Bernie beating Bloomberg by 20 points 1 vs 1.

[Florida Man for Crime]

To put this in perspective, here is NYT's map. most of Clark's Minority communities are to the right of the diagonal line or just over it in the center of Las Vegas. It's generally Hispanics, but nearly all of Nevada's AAs are in North Las Vegas. The the south and west of the line are the whiter parts - some GOP, some Democratic, some swingy. At least to me, it appears that there is more empty space to the South and west than to the North and East. So Pete's Clark share will likely rise, and Biden's will fall.

It does look like that if you are just looking at geographic area, but... not sure that holds up if you take into account population density and in particular the more precise areas where AA voters are concentrated most heavily.

1) It looks to me like many/most of the core AA precincts in North Las Vegas are still out. Much of what is reported in that area are either the less heavily AA precincts further to the west and geographically large (but more sparsely populated, I think?) precincts in the north).

2) It looks like most of the heavily white parts of Henderson and a lot around Summerlin has reported - that area should be good for Pete and Klobuchar. You can even see a few Klobuchar precincts in both of those 2 areas.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The only thing giving me pause about being ok with Bernie as the probable nominee is that Olawakandi now supports him, evidently.

Just wait 5 minutes and Olawakandi will support someone else.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So... Are we getting any more votes tonight?

More just came in, up to 41% reported

[Florida Man for Crime]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

Hopefully you are right. I endorse this math.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The ideal scenario would be both Biden and Pete unviable, but alas, that seems to be too much to hope for.

[Florida Man for Crime]

My quick analysis of NV:

1st:

Bernie has won a resounding victory there and we must congratulate him on his huge win.

Why was that ?

You mean it wasn't because of Blaxicans?

[Florida Man for Crime]

At this point - and more so with each passing day - it becomes clearer and clearer that MacArthur is doing exactly the same thing that he and his ilk accused Sanders supporters of doing in 2016 - of not rallying behind the nominee with sufficient rapidity, alacrity, and enthusiasm, as it becomes increasingly clear that the nominee is the nominee.

So by MacArthur's own standards, if Bernie goes on to lose now, MacArthur and his ilk should and will and shall be to blame for the loss. MacArthur is undermining - and if he continues on in this decrepit state, will continue to undermine - the nominee's chances of beating Trump in November. And other stragglers and remnants of a bygone era like James Carville and Chris Matthews are aiding and abetting in this enterprise, sabotaging party unity, and doing their damndest to secure a GOP victory in 2020.