2020 New York Redistricting

[Florida Man for Crime]

[snip tweet]

what the actual fyck is that second Republican district. We've had hundreds of drafts posted by people in this thread that give Dems one more seat than this and are cleaner!

Precisely.

There are definitely too many Republican seats in this map. We have seen Democratic gerrymanders in this thread, and this is nothing like those, which implies that this map is in effect a Republican gerrymander. Remember, Democrats have won 100% of the statewide elections in the past x years in New York, and consequently are entitled to 100% of the seats in a fair map. So hopefully the NY Supreme Court throws this Republican gerrymander out which unduly favors the GOP and replaces it with a proper map with fewer Republican seats and which gives the Democrats their rightful due.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Oh, NY-11 has park slope census tracks.

Good.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

The depends entirely on if you are talking just about 2022 or about the rest of the decade. As long as it is a Biden seat, she will lose probably in 2024, but if it is a weak-kneed one she can probably win in 2022. There is really no reason it should be less than 60% Dem/Biden or so.

[Florida Man for Crime]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Yep, there is a clear community of interest of ferry riders. Many thousands of Bronz's NYPD officers ride the ferry in from Staten Island to Manhattan every day, where they police Times Square and make sure no terrorist attacks occur. So if you disrespect that community of interest, then you are disrespecting the police and helping the terrorists win.

I know you meant to say 'Bronx', but this was too funny to pass up.... 

No, I did mean Bronz

[Florida Man for Crime]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Democrats in the NY State Legislature should vote down this Republican gerrymander and pass an amended map that does a better job of representing appropriate communities of interest and which just so happens by sheer coincidence to favor Democrats more, in particular in NY-11.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yeah if Rs win this district, it'll have to be because of terrible turnout up in Park Slope

Park slope will be fine. The concerns are non-white turnout (and possibly support) in Staten Island and the southern more working class parts of Brooklyn which are still in this district, and support from working class white voters in the same areas. Other than Park Slope itself, the rest of the district is mostly working class. Although the Hispanic/Asian areas that are included in sunset park are quite strongly Dem, they are also relatively low turnout. If there were less of those areas and more higher turnout white liberal areas, then the district could be totally safe Dem, rather than potentially competitive (particularly in a year like 2022 will likely be).

[Florida Man for Crime]

I hope we do see Goldman want to drop the Progressive neighborhoods like one expects, cause then there might be an attempt to put forward a draft testing the waters for the Chinese access NY-11. The discourse around an effort like below will be interesting to watch, especially given how much attention has been directed to Brooklyn's Chinese in recent years.

This would be a very sensible way to do it.

One thing that you might think would be a problem with this design (from Goldman's perspective, anyway), would be that more of the population is in the Staten Island part than the Manhattan part, so theoretically you might think Goldman could be vulnerable to a geographically-based "anti-Manhattan" primary challenge.

However, that is not really the case with that configuration. Depending on exactly how you drew it, there would be about 108k Biden votes in the Manhattan part of the district, but there are only 91k Biden votes in Staten Island.

That means that in a geographically-based Democratic primary, a Manhattan candidate would be favored over a Staten Island one even if turnout were strictly proportional to Biden votes. However, a primary would obviously be lower turnout than a Presidential election, and would surely be even more lopsided in favor of Manhattan because a greater proportion of the Biden voters in Manhattan would be high propensity likely voters, whereas a larger share of the Biden voters in Staten Island would be lower propensity unlikely voters who are not going to vote in a primary.

So insofar as the greatest hypothetical electoral danger to Goldman is probably a primary challenge, this would likely make him safer rather than make him less safe. So it is something he would have every reason to get behind or at least to be OK with.

Plus, I would bet the Chinese/Asian access seat could be configured in such a way as to take some of the progressive white areas from the Brooklyn African American seats, so the Democratic incumbents in those seats would have reason to be happy with this as well.

So Dems should really do this or something very similar to it in the remap.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Any map that has anything less than a completely safe Dem seat combining Staten Island and the white liberal areas of lower Manhattan should be summarily rejected for that reason alone. At least in other parts of the state like upstate and Long Island there are generally some sorts of tradeoffs (e.g. making 1 seat more Dem puts another seat out of reach whereas it might otherwise be competitive in a good year). But in NYC, there is no tradeoff whatsoever with making sure that the Staten Island district ends up safely Democratic.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Not to mention giving Staten Island to Dan Goldman allows for an Asian plurality Brooklyn district.

Yep, it is the only way to draw a big beautiful fair map that is reflective of the diversity of the people of New York. Anything less is a disgraceful violation of the the rights of the growing Asian-American minority community.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The 2% rule is the biggest hurdle for Dems here.

What is this 2% rule? Whatever it is, if it is a problem, then I would think the supermajority legislature should simply change it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&s=19
Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

He may be slime, but he's our slime.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The map has been released!




(just kidding, I wish this were the map )

Map details

[Florida Man for Crime]

There is absolutely no way they could, should, or would pass a map like Wasserman suggests. It is practically a Republican gerrymander designed to try to defeat various Democrats such as Pat Ryan for example.

The legislature should pass a proper beautiful fair map which duly respects the great state of New York's communities of interest such as the south-Brooklyn Asian-American community, and doesn't take partisanship into account in order to go out of its way to give Republican incumbents a chance at re-election just because they are Republican. Why would you draw a map to deliberately re-elect some Republican incumbents when the voters of New York have just made clear in the NY-03 special election that they don't want Republicans? That would be anti-democratic. Clearly you would only do that if you were improperly taking partisanship into account, and the legislature would never do that.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This map would kill the Dems if they went the squad/anti-Israel future route. Would lose 1,2,3,4,11 in this scenario.

Yep, it is an anti-Dem and in particular anti-progressive gerrymander. If it were passed it would have to be struck down for that reason and replaced with a proper big beautiful fair map.