What would Beto’s primary path be?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Basically he wins Iowa, and then everyone just melts away before him amidst all the hype and momentum.

It will be a lot like invading Russia. Basically Beto just has to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure of all the other campaigns will come crashing down before him. That is pretty much how it worked for John Kerry in 2004.

In seriousness, after winning in IA he should have a decent showing in NH, but he doesn't really have to win it assuming either Warren or Bernie is in and is winning it. Then do decently in NV, but he doesn't really have to win that if Harris is winning it, because it is practically her turf right next to CA.

Whoever wins SC (if it is not Beto), is the person with the best chance to stop Beto. That could happen if someone can consolidate African American support - most likely Harris or Booker, but possibly also Biden if he runs. Probably the person with the most obvious path to make it a 2 candidate race is Harris, by winning NV due to it being next to California and then SC.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Everyones path in 2020 is incredibly Iowa-centric. With NH and SC as automatic losses to Bernie/Warren and a AA candidate like Booker/Harris/Oprah/?, Iowa is key to early momentum. This probably benefits Youth focused candidates like Beto, but also Klobuchar and other popular Midwesterners.

Agree.

Beto must win IA and NV, before doing well on Super Tuesday with a huge win in TX and a decent showing CA.

I don't see any reason why Beto should have to actually win NV in order to win the Dem primary.

Sure, he shouldn't get blown out in NV, and should get a decent share of the few delegates. But why does he actually have to win it?

NV is right next to CA, and is demographically similar to CA.

The idea that he would need to win NV to beat Harris is about as absurd as the idea that Harris would need to win NM (right next door to TX and next door to El Paso) to beat Beto.

And it is as absurd as saying that in order to beat Bernie or Warren, you have to win New Hampshire - you can beat them by beating them in other states, not in the states right next door to them.

Sure, if Beto did win NV (following IA) then he would for sure be strongly on course for a win in the overall Dem Primary. But I don't see any particular reason why he needs that.