@unclesam:
How do you explain the results of the high-turnout AZ-8 special where Republicans had a +22% advantage in the electorate?
That special election is by far the best reason to think that Sinema is favored. Debbie Lesko, basically a normal generic R, did even worse than Joe Arpaio.
Granted, McSally is a better candidate than Lesko was, but AZ as a whole is much less Republican than AZ-08 and Sinema is also a pretty strong candidate (though her apparent desire to run a Feingold-like "positive campaign" and failure to respond to attacks gives one pause). Also, all politics is national and candidate quality matters much less than it did a few decades ago.
Again based on AZ-08, I am pretty doubtful that Sinema will have a real problem with base turnout. In 2018, simply having a D next to your name is enough to get good base turnout. Democratic voters are for the most part motivated to vote in order to vote against Trump, not to vote for the Democratic candidates.
