If Simmons couldn't survive a primary against a joke like McMahon, then I can't see how an even more moderate/liberal Republican can do it.
Money.
Shays district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and he's got a lot of very strong corporate contacts from his time as a congressman. Not saying he'd win a primary, but he's a much stronger candidate than Simmons on most every level—especially seniority and ability to fundraise.
As a former "employee" of Shays, let me tell you this much. He can get a lot of money, very, very fast here. He'll outraise Murphy in a heartbeat.
