Deano963
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,866
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« on: October 19, 2006, 12:51:45 AM » |
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A superior GOTV effort cannot overcome an 11-point deficit (the average lead of Brown over Dewine in the last five polls), or even an 8-point deficit (Tester over Burns).
Strategists from both parties do concede the Repubs have a better GOTV program, but say that it can make up 3 points in the polls at most on Election Day. That might pull the republican accross the line in TN and MO and VA, but not in OH, RI, MT, and PA. I see no reason to panick b/c of Repub GOTV efforts. Besides, the differences between 2006 and 2004 are huge. Dems will pick up at least 4 Senate seats and at least 20 House seats - of that I am sure. Personally I think they will pick up even more House seats and probably 1 more Senate seat at least, but I'm being very conservative in my official estimates just to be safe.
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