Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Deano963]

Sam did you see the new poll that came out on OH-18 yesterday? I think you should at least have this race rated as a tossup, as it is hard to call a race "Leans R" when the R is down by double digits IMO. Besides that I agree with basically everything.

Tried to put in a link to the poll for you, but now I can't find it anywhere! Sorry.

[Deano963]

You're putting far, far to much importance on your opinion that he is a third-tier candidate, IMO. Even if that is true - which is very debatable - many, many third-tier candidates or worse have been swept to victory in environments like the current one in OH-18, which is an even worse environment for republicans than Ohio overall. Plus you are overestimating the strength of Padgett in that district, and underestimating how incredibly easy it will be for Space to tie her to the Bobs. He's already up with an ad doing this, and it's quite good.

[Deano963]

How is OH-18 a toss-up when the last five polls on this race have shown Space leading Padgett by a decent margin?

Oh, and I forgot - get ready to maybe move IL-11 from 'Dem list of hopes' to Likely Dem. Rumor has it another shoe is about to drop in the page scandal, and this time it is far worse.

[Deano963]

3. OH-18 is there based on polls and what I think of candidates involved.  Also, Space has pretty much no money left and is relying on the national party.  I know about the Ohio factor and it's been taken in.  In case you haven't noticed, the race has been consistently moving up the list the past few weeks.

Silly me. I guess I thought five consecutive polls (2 Dem, 2 Indie, 1 Rep) all showing the same candidate with a high single-digit or low double-digit lead warranted better than a 'Toss-up' rating. Oh, and about Space having "no money left - your facts are extremely screwy. He has $150K and Padgett has $250K (wow, big difference), and the the NRCC has spent $2.6 million for ads in the 18th District for Padgett in the last 7 weeks compared to the DCCC which has spent less than $1 million on ads for Space in the entire cycle. So your assertion that Space is depending on the national party for money is somewhat curious seeing as how Padgett has beneiftted vastly more from her national party's help than Space has. I guess some people are'nt as sharp as others.

[Deano963]

3. OH-18 is there based on polls and what I think of candidates involved.  Also, Space has pretty much no money left and is relying on the national party.  I know about the Ohio factor and it's been taken in.  In case you haven't noticed, the race has been consistently moving up the list the past few weeks.

Silly me. I guess I thought five consecutive polls (2 Dem, 2 Indie, 1 Rep) all showing the same candidate with a high single-digit or low double-digit lead warranted better than a 'Toss-up' rating. Oh, and about Space having "no money left - your facts are extremely screwy. He has $150K and Padgett has $250K (wow, big difference), and the the NRCC has spent $2.6 million for ads in the 18th District for Padgett in the last 7 weeks compared to the DCCC which has spent less than $1 million on ads for Space in the entire cycle. So your assertion that Space is depending on the national party for money is somewhat curious seeing as how Padgett has beneiftted vastly more from her national party's help than Space has. I guess some people are'nt as sharp as others.

Your logic needs work.  Just because more money is being spent on Padgett than Space does not mean that both are not depending on the national party, because both are.  Notice I never said that Padgett wasn't relying on the national party.  However, the national Republicans are simply better funded in this campaign, so Padgett will have a natural money advantage.

You've brought up the polling reasons as to why my placement of the race might be wrong (I doubt that you view my end prediction of it as wrong), and I've brought up the natural lean of the CD, my view of the candidates and a couple of other things.

I could well be wrong in my predictions, but calling me "not sharp" is not the best way to influence people.  I suggest you read Andrew Carnegie.

Your reading needs work. I didn't say that neither Space nor Padgett were relying on the national parteis, I said that both of them were. To correct your erroneous belief that Space is depending on the national party while Padgett is not, I pointed out to you that Padgett has recieved far more 9more than 3 times as much) assistance from the national party than Space has and that they both have very low COH amounts. I assumed from your statement that you did not know either of these things since you only mentioned Space, so I pointed them out to you. You shouldn't take them as an attack.

Oh, and I'm pretty sure you mean Dale Carnegie. I've read him. I'm surprised you have. Most people who have read him take constructive criticsim well.