So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.
Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:
White: R 60/40
Black: D 55/45
Here's a link to a pdf of the crosstabs:
https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/gonzales-maryland-poll-august-2018-1534219336.pdfI did some back of the envelope extrapolating from the crosstabs just for fun because let's be honest - Ben Jealous is going to do better than just 53% among blacks and 55% among Democrats.
So let's say Jealous gets 90% of the African American vote and limits Hogan to just 5% (unlikely given Hogan's popularity but something other Democrats accomplish regularly). The race would then be tied 46-46%, all other aspects of the poll remaining the same.
Also suppose Jealous earns the same percentage of Democrats as Hogan does among Republicans (92.4%), all other aspects of the poll remaining the same... Jealous runs away with it, 57-38%. Why? Because self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in this poll.
In fact, Jealous would only need 75% of the Democratic vote, and would need to limit Hogan to 21% of Democrats, to break even with Hogan overall at 47-47%.
I personally think this race is likely Republican. But you can see how Jealous has room to grow.
