Pick a poll... any poll...

[angus]

I'd suggest to Carl Rove to pick the CNN poll and preach it as gospel.  Put some fear into the fat rich bastards, so they'll hand over some of that money.

[angus]

I love that Ayn Rand stamp, by the way.  I'll have to go to the USPO at lunch and get a big wad of them.  To bad it's not 37c.

For the heart,

As you may (or may not) remember from your "Introduction to Statistics" class, the formula for calculating the margin of error for 95% confidence level is:

MOE = sqrt((p)(1-p)/n)*2s,
where n=number of respondents
           p=number who answered a given question
           s=two standard deviations from the mean

[angus]

Bush is going after Nov 2nd if doest Win Florida & Ohio

I think he needs to win both.

[angus]

such as?

[angus]

Bush wins Florida.  Not sure about NH, WV and OH.

I do like that signature.  Makes it hard to concentrate on your posts, though.  By the way, you know she isn't a Democrat, right?

[angus]

Nobody ever talks about SD but I have thought about that too.  Daschle (if I'm not mistaken) is up for reelection and Kerry coattails could be good for him there.  On the other hand, SD hasn't given its votes to the Democrats since the 1964 so it may be considered safe.  On the balance, I'd not want to waste too much GOP money there, unless the Democrats start an active campaign and force the Republicans to.  I've never been there and can't comment on your question.

[angus]

I wouldn't put it past the Democrats to do that sort of thing.  

[angus]

If I were the Bush campaign I would try a registration effort in Delaware. The state was only won by 40,000 votes and if you can increase turnout in the South and make campaign pitches there, you may be able to see a high turnout for Bush. Delaware would practically negate the loss of NH.

Delaware is the 'hood boss.  I don't think anyone whose last name is Bush is going to find friendliness there.

[angus]

The incumbent only has to tie, whereas the challenger has to win.  This condition owes itself to the fact that more delegations in the House are R than D.  Bush advantage.  Big states, with the exception of the 2nd and 4th most populous states, are likely to vote for Kerry.  Kerry advantage.  Are we to presume that your tacit assumption is that Kerry will take big states such as ohio and florida?  Or that he'll win enough medium states such as arizona or tennessee or louisiana?  Or in a bunch of small ones?  or in some combination thereof?  

Or are you saying that people all over the USA are thoroughly convinced that W is so confused or malevolent that they'll vote for Kerry in droves everywhere?


NEWS UPDATE:  PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT IN SOUTH KOREA.