Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[We Live in Black and White]

Second round Port Charlotte results:

56 Klobuchar
43 Buttigieg
33 Biden

Biden picked up zero votes

Jesus. I know it's a bad idea to put stock in satellite caucuses, but if Biden can't even win moderate voters of his own generation in Florida, that's disgraceful.

[We Live in Black and White]

While satellite caucuses are overall unimportant I think Klobuchar's performance so far certainly bodes well for her in the actual caucuses.

I hesitate to confidently extrapolate this from the results so far, but it seems like Klobuchar is directly eating up enormous swathes of Biden voters.

[We Live in Black and White]

Alright, I don't necessarily have confidence in this, but after correctly predicting Drew McIntyre's entire performance at Royal Rumble 2020, I'm ready to hedge my bets a bit and adjust my prediction: Bernie wins, Amy comes in second, Biden comes in a pathetic third or fourth.

Everybody please feel free to hold me to this bold prediction I've made purely on a burst of confidence stemming from my recent good luck at sports predictions.

[We Live in Black and White]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1224453693136756736

Similar to the Florida snowbirds, the Arizona ones seem to be preferring Amy to a greater degree than expected.

If this is at all a reflection of old people in Iowa, Biden is absolutely hosed.

[We Live in Black and White]

I don’t understand why biden campaign is so confident that nh and Iowa results won’t affect his South Carolina performance

Seriously. With Steyer and Klobuchar apparently building a legitimate base in the South out of Biden's own voters, he absolutely cannot afford to be so suicidally cocky.

[We Live in Black and White]

It may be telling that Sanders' best performances in the satellite caucuses are actually in Iowa so far. The demographics of those that caucused in Ottumwa, Keokuk, Fort Madison, and Cedar Rapids (much more young, working-class, and diverse) are far more indicative of who will turn out tonight in the regular caucus.

CNN showing the Des Moines satellite caucus and it looks like Bernie is winning it. The reporter said there was a large group for Bernie, and smaller ones for Buttigieg and Warren. No mention of Biden.

Jesus.

[We Live in Black and White]

I would have so much fun if Biden ended up 5th. He'll probably do well in rural low educated areas, esp. near the Missouri border.

If the results right now are any indication at all, that very well might end up being the case. I would be s**tting a hole through the crust of the Earth if I were the Biden campaign right now.

[We Live in Black and White]

https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/1224463536044281858

Looks like a Sanders landslide in Des Moines.

Mother of God. If this is reflective, tonight might be the making of a frontrunner.

[We Live in Black and White]

One vote for Biden.

One. F**king. Vote.

[We Live in Black and White]

the fact that a lot of urban areas are out (just in terms of precincts, not even talking about population) gives me hope that Bernie can pull this one out, although it'd be close either way

This is pretty much going to be a tie in the end, and I feel like the major takeaway is going to be that Joe Biden got smoked like a deli turkey.

[We Live in Black and White]

HAHAHAHA the Bros are gonna lose their minds.

Why, exactly? Bernie is still going to swamp everyone in New Hampshire and Pete is going to go absolutely nowhere in the larger primary cycle.

[We Live in Black and White]

And this is why we're never winning back Iowa.

[We Live in Black and White]

Holy s**t, the madman might do it!

[We Live in Black and White]

MacArthur derangement syndrome strikes again.  Y'all just post lies about me being some lunatic and expect everyone to believe it.  Go ahead and post my most "deranged" take from the last ten pages of the Sanders thread.

I highly advise against making that challenge.

[We Live in Black and White]

Oh my sweet holy mother of god.

[We Live in Black and White]

So with the Perez tweet, it looks like we really won't get the Iowa results until after NH!

Which benefits Pete's handlers, exactly what they want is further "PETE WON!!" narrative. Like jesus just release everything and recount later. If buttigieg won after 100% reporting then it would had vindicated him. Instead they pull this sh**t.

What's ridiculous is that it won't do them any good. Buttigieg is only going to be able to control this narrative until Monday, when the best he'll be able to say is that he MASSIVELY SUCCEEDED in coming in a distant second to Bernie in New Hampshire.

The fact that Perez is trying to protect him just demonstrates how worthless he is as a DNC chair. Buttigieg has no primary or national viability as a candidate.

[We Live in Black and White]

It's for the best.  This is just ludicrous and slapdash.  At least with a recanvass we can have a modicum of faith in the final count.  Any impact that Iowa was going to have on New Hampshire has already been blown.

For once, I agree with you, though I maintain that a recanvass at this juncture is a great big stupid waste of time. The people who were going to benefit from Iowa have already benefited from Iowa and it's done nothing to change how New Hampshire will fall.

[We Live in Black and White]

You people with your conspiracy theories.  My god.  I don't see any Buttigieg supporters saying the recanvass was done to stop Buttigieg from retaking the lead.

You should try reading Twitter for other reasons than to make strawman attacks against Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

If only the DNC was as competent as you think.  Somehow they're able to run this massive master manipulation scheme to keep Bernie Sanders from winning Iowa and rig the entire election against him, while also not being able to run a caucus in a single small state.

Their incompetence doesn't mean they can't try and inconvenience the guy they don't want at every possible turn.

[We Live in Black and White]

I'm not saying that this whole thing is rigged, but if it was this is exactly how you would rig it.

And somehow it's still not working. That's the stupid part of all of this: in spite of all of their incompetence, in spite of every roadblock they tried to put up, Buttigieg is still at the bottom of the barrel nationally and Bernie has taken the lead.

Which is another reason why I hesitate to fully believe that this was deliberate. Why allow Trump supporters to clog the results? Why throw in with Pete Buttigieg, the single worst candidate for the DNC's Black base? Why do it this way?

[We Live in Black and White]

This is embarrassing, Perez needs to resign ASAP.

Tom Perez has zero power or authority over a local party.

True, but he has also proven to be a categorically worthless party leader in almost every regard.

[We Live in Black and White]

I'm not saying that this whole thing is rigged, but if it was this is exactly how you would rig it.

And somehow it's still not working. That's the stupid part of all of this: in spite of all of their incompetence, in spite of every roadblock they tried to put up, Buttigieg is still at the bottom of the barrel nationally and Bernie has taken the lead.

Which is another reason why I hesitate to fully believe that this was deliberate. Why allow Trump supporters to clog the results? Why throw in with Pete Buttigieg, the single worst candidate for the DNC's Black base? Why do it this way?

They aren't doing it because Buttigieg is a strong establishment candidate. They're doing it because he's not. Their guy, Biden, needs everyone to not notice what a horrible candidate he is until he gets to the South where he will supposedly look less horrible. Boosting Buttigieg just buys them enough time to resuscitate Biden's campaign and blunt Bernie's momentum. At the very least it makes a contested convention more likely.

And yet it's still not working. Just look at polling in New Hampshire and at the national level. If this is their plan, it's a really, really bad one.

[We Live in Black and White]

Bernie Slanders and his supporters are at it again, trying to rig the results!!!!!!

Oh, get f**king lost. What they're trying is transparent at this point and you know it.

[We Live in Black and White]

All right, here's what the final batch looked like.

Final vote:
Bernie 28.0%
Pete 25.0%
Klob 17.1%
Biden 16.7%
Warren 12.0%

SDE:
Bernie 28.6%
Pete 25.1%
Biden 18.0%
Klob 16.5%
Warren 10.7%

What?  So Pete's not even head by .10% in SDEs now?

AP couldn't even make a projection and I think that's fair.  All caucuses need to go and Bernie's people were wrong to ask for keeping them around.

On this, I agree. Caucuses are an antique clusterf**k.

[We Live in Black and White]

If the recanvassing actually addresses the many, many inconsistencies that have been reported, and doesn't try to retroactively change the delegate allocation rules for the satellite caucuses, then I have no complaint. There's a good chance Bernie winds up winning SDEs too if that's the case, but if he doesn't I don't mind. All I want is a fair and accurate count, and at this point it's more for the historical record than for any consequence it might have on the primaries.

This is also a correct take. A fair recanvass is very much an ethically just decision, my enormous distrust of Perez aside.

[We Live in Black and White]

Wow! Reuters actually decided to call the race.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1225609106767187969?s=20

Not good!

I remember when Florida got called for both Gore and Bush on election night 2000. The media doesn't determine who won.

In a sequential, momentum based race? It absolutely does. This thread hasn't gone on for 150 pages because of a delegate here or there at the eventual Democratic convention. It's irresponsible for Reuters to do this, and would be even if news and momentum didn't play so heavily in this race.

I still maintain that this is a hysterically stupid play by the DNC, if that's what they're actually doing. Buttigieg is in no way going to be able to secure the nomination, and Biden isn't coming back from Iowa. Meanwhile, Sanders is almost a lock for New Hampshire and has raced to a lead in national polling.

This is stupid all around.