Who is going to win?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point I would give Trump around 60-40 odds of winning it. I always had this election close though, even before I flipped it to Trump.

Lol you guys can't compete with us in Early voting in MI, PA and WI forget the state by state polls Biden is doing well in Natl polls Trump isn't up 8 in MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Instead he sat on his ass, and let Trump recover for over a year. Then again, after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

The polls look like 22 and guess what they were wrong too in 22 Pred a Red wave lol we aren't losing WI, PA and MI with the Natl not State by state polls showing a tight race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this already Activate Trump +6 wrong, Rassy Trump 48/41 wrong.

The polls are just recycling the same polls state by state garbage as last time in 22 NV Laxalt +5 was wrong and they still Emerson has NV R 5

Battleground states aren't OH, TX or FL it's AZ, NV, GA and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump and its not going to be close

Still going by polls not votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol us Loosing PA, WI and MI and Trump leads are within MOE are laughable.

We don't vote for 7 months but we are in position with Early voting to overcome all those small Trump leads

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, why would Biden lose MI,PA and WI, he's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These GA and MA Avatars except Georgia Moderate are like Doomers why would you invoke Trump name as the winner until we vote and Ds have won all the time

Why do you think OSR or MT Treasure or 2016 aren't on here support Trump because he's an insurrection. They are wrong on supporting Tax cuts but they don't like Trump still

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Okay doomer.

He's turned into another one GA avatars except for GA Moderate the 3 MA Avatars and then KY, book it they are all Doomers