Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls (user search)

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

So election results don't count because of "low turnout", but polls are infallible?

Nearly every pro-Trump argument I see falls apart after just the slightest bit of critical thinking. People keep hand-waving actual election results like they don't mean anything when they are telling us EVERYTHING.

Apparently, the economy and the border has been so terrible under Biden that voters will crawl over broken glass to vote fking Donald Trump back into office. There's just one problem I have with this argument. Joe Biden is a DEMOCRAT.

Voters don't know a lot. But they DO know that Biden is a Democrat and Trump is a Republican. If inflation and "open borders" were of such high concern to voters that it would turn them ultra-MAGA, they certainly would not vote for MORE DEMOCRATS to continue carrying out Joe Biden's policies... and yet that's exactly what's been happening since 2022. You can do whatever mental gymnastics you want, but that is reality and fact.

Like it's insane to see people saying Arizona is going to vote for Trump when this traditionally GOP state voted for Katie Hobbs! when inflation was at like 7%, gas prices were at record-highs and migrants were "invading" the state.

And you want me to believe Trump has some magical powers that will guide him to a win in this state that he LOST in the last election, while he's scraping for cash and undergoing criminal trials in several jurisdictions. Give me a break Squinting

I've already said that Biden is favored, I'm just throwing your same absurd argument back at you (use data but not that data). When have special election results been predictive? Especially without Trump on the ballot who has fanatics who will vote for him and only him. I certainly haven't found any candidate who inspires me to go to the polls in recent years.

The respected (non-junk) polling industry has been incredible accurate and I have very few reasons to think anything has changed from 2018-2022 polling. Those arguments are less convincing. I think Biden is favored because polling will change, not because it is wrong.

But it's almost a coin flip. Many Americans only think about politics when a presidential election is on the ballot. They will go to the polls every 4 years and do their civic duty and not remember a thing about midterm Senate races. No Trump devotee or copycat has come close to copying his appeal, so it's no surprise some people feel no need to vote between two nobodies - like I didn't in Pennsylvania 2022.

Biden is not favored. Neither fundamentals nor polls point to this.

Lol we have been winning the blue wall except Hillary lost Biden and Obama won it in 2008/12 you act like blue states are AL, what have I have been telling Redban he is a hack on polls that we still have to vote

Conserv act like the polls are end all be all, even if Trump gets elected there is gonna be dissatisfied voters because he fav the rich with his silly tax cuts

We just won the blue wall in 22 and no your map won't win with MN and NH and WI and MI and PA and NV going R

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