KY - Cygnal: Tie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.

Not necessarily.  It could be close, and if LA/MS are blowouts, even more proof that Beshear couldn't win.

And Cameron doesn't seem that awful.

Yup. The race will be within 5 pts. no matter what, so it could go either way. Even Beshear loses, he will do A LOT better than "generic D" or any D-candidate at the prez or senate level.

Beshear won't lose he won last time on Provisions ballots and it's VBM that's why Presley can win VBM and LA G is gonna go to runoff Landry is at 34 not 60 to avoid a Dec Runoff

Have faith in VBM that's why we won WI, PA and FL VBM not sane day

That's why OH is D lean with Brown VBM Rs haven't figured out a way to defeat Brown or tester yet

Eday is still 5 MNTHS off and 24 is 18 MNTHS off

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.

On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.

Pick your narrative.

Do you how much Beshear won by last time 39 K votes it will be close again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 5 MNTHS til Edays for Presley, Beshear and Wilson Beshesr won by 39K votes last time just be patient and wait for Eday these are R 22 states the Rs should be wiping the floor with Ds like WV and they arent