VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Youngkin isn't running against Trump or DeSantis , if Trump is indicted Pence said he will run or Ted Cruz and Crenshaw will run for S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Debbie STABENOW is 77 and she is running and Warner isn't retiring if McConnell is 80

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Mark Warner is 67 and will be 71 in 2026, we had a 49 yr old in Tim Ryan and voters rejected him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Depends on the situation of 2024. If DeSantis comfortably leads Trump in most polls, and there are no sign that Trump will do something extremely stupid like run a third party, it is very likely that DeSantis wins the nomination, and likely presidency. In that case, there is no point for Youngkin to run, and in 2026, it would be hard for him to win the senate race in a DeSantis midterm. Then his best bet is to run for senate in 2024. If he wins, Sears could serve for one year as governor and have some incumbency advantage. If he lose, he can either continue to serve, or arrange a prominent cabinet position.

Rs have zero chance on Prez 24 or 28 Biden in 24 and Wes Moore in 28 we have 290 EC votes including AZ Govs and WI, MI and PA netted Ds in the state legislature Rs have to win blue states not just OH, FL and TX as my signature states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these races are Safe D especially with Trump, because Trump has similar Approvals as Biden or lower 46 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When is the last time a <70 year old Senator has made ructions about "being unsure of running again", then actually retiring?

Kaine is just preparing to go on his begging/fundraising round, which is hard for him as a bland unmemorable politico.

Some people like Rob Portman, Stabenow are unsatisfied with the state of a divided Congress in a Post Pandemic world and the challenges we gave itsca totally different world than a Pre Pandemic one now this wasn't a normal recession it was a Pandemic

They asked Portman to run for reelection he said he wants to get back home in this Pandemic world

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He wasn't going anywhere

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

VA is not the type of the state where a progressive-wing Democrat would be able to forge a path to victory in a primary except in truly extraordinary circumstances where the D field is split and the state/national party doesn’t unite behind a challenger; it’s (still) the type of state where an establishment-backed candidate would absolutely dominate a primary contest.

As far as the GE is concerned, even a victorious Republican presidential candidate will probably lose VA by 6-8 points — not sure where the votes are for any Republican to overcome that margin? What type of Biden/Dem-2022 voter is going to be convinced to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader? The entire race would be about as competitive (and just as overhyped) as IA-SEN 2020.

People are reading way too much into Youngkin's rather underwhelming (given the overall circumstances and environment he was running in) win. It was not a harbinger of some overall shift of the state becoming more competitive at the federal level. It’s still a D-trending state — not/no longer as rapidly as GA, but there are no encouraging signs whatsoever in any of NoVA/Richmond metro/Hampton Roads for the GOP.

This entire "Republicans swept all VA row offices in 2021" hype is basically this cycle's equivalent of "Democrats swept three out of four districts in Iowa in 2018, and yet you’re acting like it’s a red state!"

The RS need AZ, OH, WV, and MT and either PA, WI or VA to crack the Blue wall the RS couldn't defeat one D incumbent in 22 in the S the RS I don't care how red the States are aren't winning 3/5 Senate seats with 3.5 percent unemployment when Trump is losing by 9 pts to Biden LoL

Oh Brown Tester and Manchin are in red states they are gonna lose when has the RS won the PVI not just the H but the natl PVI 2014 when all the states except CO were Red in the S but OH, MT, WV Brown, Tester have survived since 2006 and Manchin is holding Byrd seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

They think since Youngkin won VA is a red state and thought Kaine was gonna retire and they think Warner is gonna retire or l ose in 26 and Manchin, Carper and Brown are 70 and Warmer, Kaine, Klobuchar and Baldwin and Rosen are 60 they're not losing RS aren't gonna win OH, MT, WV, AZ and VA or WI they couldn't defeat 1 D incumbency in 22 it's 3.5 unemployment

RS are gonna have trouble in MS, KY and LA Southern Gov races Reeves is only up 2, he should be up 10 MS isn't Safe R Reeves only won by 5 in 2019 if they are having problems in MS Gov how are the RS gonna beat Brown and he has survive since 2006 and Cook rates OH Lean D

If anyone loses on 26 it's Collins she won by 8 in 20 because she voted for stimulus check, she Filibustered Voting Rights after Biden got into office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

They think since Youngkin won VA is a red state and thought Kaine was gonna retire and they think Warner is gonna retire or l ose in 26 and Manchin, Carper and Brown are 70 and Warmer, Kaine, Klobuchar and Baldwin and Rosen are 60 they're not losing RS aren't gonna win OH, MT, WV, AZ and VA or WI they couldn't defeat 1 D incumbency in 22 it's 3.5 unemployment

RS are gonna have trouble in MS, KY and LA Southern Gov races Reeves is only up 2, he should be up 10 MS isn't Safe R Reeves only won by 5 in 2019 if they are having problems in MS Gov how are the RS gonna beat Brown and he has survive since 2006 and Cook rates OH Lean D

If anyone loses on 26 it's Collins she won by 8 in 20 because she voted for stimulus check, she Filibustered Voting Rights after Biden got into office

If there's one thing I find both admirable and stupid about Republicans its that they feel that they can win races in states where in reality they can't.

They would won but they Filibuster Voting Rights and the minimum wage has been 7.50 not 13 an hr sjnce 2006 that Bush W raised  from 5.15 and Rs have held the H for 16/20 yrs and Boehner refused to do it 2011/2015

Collins won in 20 due to voting for Stimulus checks once Biden got into office she Filibuster Voting Rights and Jared Golden whom is definitely running against her will use it against her or whomever runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kaine and Warner and Brown are only 70 yrs young they can serve as long as they want all the RS all elderly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA isn't gonna move right in a Prez yr