2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RH majority is Gone that's why McCarthy reacted the way he did and Scalise because they have such a fragile majority in the 303 stated Kean, Fitzpatrick, Garcia, Green, Boebert, Lawler and Santos 22o 7 are gone no matter what happens and then there is the 230 wave insurance, like AZ 1, VA 2 and John James

S we are likely to keep AZ, OH and MT and MO, FL, TX and WV are wave insurance 230 H and 53 S like we were supposed to get in 22 with Barnes and Ryan

Hawley is such a flip flopper he supports tax cuts for the rich and then wants to ban Tix Tok but we know he is for the rich he acquitted Trump both times, he was with the J6 insurrection that's why he held up his fist and acquitted Trump Kunce will make that clear in a GE, Kunce is not gonna get blown out by 20 like Trudy Valentine it's gonna be more like Kander Blunt race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

52/48 S MO/FL or MO/WV and 230 D H we win 17/33 that's why McCarthy was so outraged by Indictments they are gonna lose in 24, what we should of had after 22 52/48 and 222/213 DH

With a 52/46 PVI it can beore but this is the median

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be so easy now to get Congress and security of Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Netting a S Seat and 230DH is not that hard

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's can net a seat or two in the S and 5/17 seats and win by 80/75 M voted and win by a 380 map because we won 303 we lost seats in the H in 20 we are expecting to gain seats 5/17 can be different maps

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D with Sherrod Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for RS the difference between 20 and 24 is that they're destined to lose seats in the H not gain seats in the H like they did in 20 pre J6 and 22 they Gaines 5 seats in the H due to Midterm, that's why they are gonna lose by bigger margins in the Rust belt and perhaps wave insurance states

They also gained seats in the H in 20 because Trump gave us Stimulus checks they are now against Entitlements again

Trump said before Eday 20 give one more check where are RS now cut the Debt on back of poor they got rid of food stamps stimulus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is tracking 50 in Rassy and we won WI by 11 5 percent of the blk vote as we learn in 22 already is understated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls show today Biden lost his 5/10 pt edge as we move closer to Default, but Trump plus 7 is silly gas prices aren't 7.00 , but it's closer to 5

Polls go from one extreme to another

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a landslide folk's just like Bernie said it would be 1976 map FL, VA, MO, SC, GA S and NC, MS, LA and KY G

We will find out tonight with Deegan and if she wins Scott is gonna, Ds lost in FL not because Ds voted R it's that Ds didn't show up so FL isn't Safe R, it's a swing state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

FL should be Safe R, OH should be tossup, TX should be Lean R, MI and PA should be Safe D, and NV should tentatively be Likely D (obviously subject to change if Republicans unexpectedly manage to find something better than the C-listers they currently seem to be stuck with).

Biden is up 6 pts that's a blue wave and Ds in FL, TX and MO can win in a 10 pt leads they said McCormick now can win IN it's not a 303 map only it's wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings are meaningless as I tell you Steve Konraki said this whom would of thought Rs were gomna out poll Ds in NY and Ds lose the H on NY that's a Midterm not Prez and we only won PVI by 1 we win wave insurance if we win the PVI by 5

That's why I have us winning KY, MS G and netting MO and TX S, Provisions ballots benefits Ds

Kunce was on MSNBC today and said in a Prez Yr he will win and ALLRED is married to a Caucasian women and Obama, Harris and Harold Ford Jr are mixed

Users keep comparing Brown to Ryan yeah Ryam lost by 5 and we only won the PVI by 1 if we win the PVI by more than 1 Ryan and Barnes win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Plse note if we get an 80/70 M vote turnout that we almost gotten in 20 81/73 not a low turnout Midterms in 22 I did the calculations, it won't be a 303 map it will be a 413 map look how close ALLRED is to Cruz he isn't down by 7 he is down by 7 Harold Ford was down 11 late to Corker that's why Corker won by 1 Ford if he was down by 5 18 MNTHS before Eday he would have won

That's why we vote not go by polls if we only go by polls Laxalt, Masters, Oz, Walker, Bevin and Blake Master would have been elected, that's what I say stop taking all polls as end all be all even Emerson had Laxalt winning and it was wrong and Johnson not winning by 1 but 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs needs to forget Biden losing and us not taking the H and keeping the S it's 4 unemployment no inc Prez loses with that unemployment

Split ticket has Ds fav in the H but has 51, R S what poll has BBriwn behind and Tester is fav , Tester already beat Rosedale he is a very weak candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are the silly polls that had Trump ahead of Biden and morning Consult and Change had Biden +5 gonna say when Tues when there is no DEFAULT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1664740132413489153

Fun fact: this guy was reelected to the state Senate in 2022 by 10 votes.

The dam is already starting to break Rs are down 16 pts in VA and this isn't George Floyd mirage in 20 where Biden was up 14 in WI

That's why I made a nut map J6 is gonna break the R Party , it's not about if Biden wins its about how much he wins bye and it's not just a 303 map there are blks in red states too you know

We are gonna find out in Nov 23 with these S G Rs were supposed to sweep they might get swept LA is going to a Runoff  that's why you don't hear from MT Treasure or 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

Lol do you know how much Biden is gonna win NJ by 15 pts 55/41 and Kean Jr isn't winning reelection he is one of the most vulnerable 5 Lawler, Santos, Brobert, Garcia and Kean Jr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The blue wall is GONE ALREADY FOR BOTH TRUMP ABD DeSantis if they are down 16 in VA and 9 pts in PA

Rs are endangered in red states because Wesley Bell, ALLRED, Stein and Brown are gonna overperformrned a Generic D on that state

Filibuster scorecard

Lean D AZ, MT, OH
Tossup MO, TX
Wish list FL, WV

It's a reason why they haven't polled OH S Rs aren't substantial ahead in OH because DeWine isn't on the ballot Brown is kneck and kneck with Dolan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 3o3 map but with Trump indictnebt and Biden up 16 in VA not 5 a tsunami can develop

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't look at ratings until Oct 24, maps are blank on Eday Coons said it's gonna be a blue wave not just a 304 map with Trump indictment on Docugate, the ratings were grossly wrong last time in PRED Ds lose 20 H seats and Rs win 53 S Seats and lose KS Gov

That's why so many users PRED wrong on Fetterman they actually thought Fetterman was gonna lose with Shapiro

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol its a 1 yr before Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know that's what Rs are afraid of, ended the Filibuster as I said in anotherthread but Nixon and Reagan got 50 percentage pts of Latinos and Bush W they coopted the D agent immigration reform reparations for Native American and Japanese and Native American are Arabs like Negros and Blks and Asians everyone are Arabs except Caucasian

Reagan didn't just pass tax cuts for the rich

We need immigration reform because we have to count all migrants not just Latinos

COVID didn't just spread from Latinos it came from China too

That's why the Filibuster needs to ends both sides especially Rs relied on it too much that's why Reid got rid of the Judicial Filibuster , that's why Sinema is gonna lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The H is gone for Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The surprise is gonna be FL whomever emerges can beat Scott he isn't Rubio and Primary is very late in Sept 24

FL, TX and MO will vote together in a blue waves

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters are mad about inflation but it's a 303 map with wave insurance I take these surveys I just took a Harris X Biden is gonna get reelection with a Filibuster proof Trifecta, Trump won't get back in as always it's VBM and Provisions ballots go D not R

I say it's gonna be a 232DH and 53/47 yes MO, FL and TX are gonna fall but Justice will be in S

I Brown is leading in OH it's over Trump cannot win without OH we were so close in 20/22, Vance won solely on DeWine DeWine won by 25 and Vance won by 5 some users act like Vance win by 25 no he didn't