California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Barb Lee and I am sure this time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wanted Markel but Lee will do and if she does or resigned she has two sons, Meeks did the same thing in FLORIDA , it's obvious it was gonna be Lee Lee is from 12 th District of CA where Newsom is from SF

It's expensive to live there, usually most blks bunk up there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

no one is entitled to a seat. Again, this whole thing would push me to Porter. I won't be disappointed if Lee ends up winning a full term, but this whole episode puts a bad taste in my mouth.

No one is but Rochester, Alsobrooks, and Harris as well as blks delegates  in Congress are running for offices in blk and Brown states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 24, Rs cannot compete with Ds with blk vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs campaign on the Southern Strategy anyways and Trump made this the center piece of the Obama Birther movement along with Palin and Rev Wright in 2008, the D party is the blk and Brown party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How anybody thought Barbara Lee ever had a viable path to the Senate is something that ought be studied by scientists. Her biggest issues since February are low name recognition compared to the normie dem darlings that are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, her being out-funded compared to Porter and Schiff ($1,000,000 BL, $10,000,000 KP, $29,000,000 AS), and of course her ripe young of 77 (soon to be 78 in 2024, and would be 84 in 2030), she would’ve beaten out Peter Welch as the oldest freshman in the history of the Senate, which after Feinstein’s death isn’t a title anyone should want

Yup. I'm not even convinced she would have won with Newsom making the appointment.

This appointment isn't about race, it's about age, it takes away the argument that Rs have about Biden being too old, and Trump is 77 just like Lee, Newsom was very aware of the R complaining about Biden ages

It will be gradually show up in the polls positive for Biden

They did the Rs the samething with LBJ and he was too old but he had Heart problems and smoked like my Grandma did and Died and the Rs nominated Ronald Reagan

Any D would win it's a runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Might be jumping the gun a bit but I'll say now that the race is probably over. Butler has had several high profile roles, is fairly young but not too young, and has no reason not to run for re-election.

And the campaigns of Schiff, Porter, and Lee are designed as campaigns for an empty senate seat. They're not remotely designed as campaigns for challenging an incumbent senator who's a well-qualified mainstream Democrat with plenty of experience in Californian politics and a lesbian black woman.

They'd all probably be best off dropping out and running for re-election to their House seats– maintaining Senate campaigns just wouldn't look good in the new circumstances

Schiff has £32 million in the bank and very high ID- why drop out when he’s virtually nailed into getting in the final two?

He won't win, Caruso had that type of money and lost Feinstein Death is a game changer because he was getting sympathy from McCarthy censured, but. now it's sympathy from Feinstein female death

It's a runoff anyways , he may make the runoff like Caruso but fail in GE because minorities and women, Latina women swing towards Bass over Caruso and will do so again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Caruso raised a lot too, and he lost we will have to wait till the primary it's a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If there was any chance of Lee winning the primary, it's over now. Pro Palestinian dems are going to get annihilated in primaries

That's why we have ALLRED, Alsobrooks and Blunt Rochester, Porter is gonna win anyways.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

Is there literally any time in history that an incumbent senator has polled at 3% in the primary? I don't think so and I'm not sure what makes you think Butler is such a uniquely bad senator that it will happen now.

The Palestinians uprising will hurt Lee and Butler and help Porter but there are 3 women running and Porter is the younger version of Feinstein

White, Latina women that was gonna vote for Schiff are now gonna vote for Porter

Powell can win too she looks like Deegan and PORTER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

Minorities are gonna back Porter, away from Lee or Butler it's still a runoff and it's a Porter v Schiff primary. No GOP opponent in GE Porter wins easily

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

In theory, this checks out.

In practice,  he right now is just another GOP name next to other GOP names.  The absurdly hypothetical McCarthy run wouldn't have this issue cause people in an electorate of millions already know him. People barely remember Garvey at best. Any Republican needs money or exposure to actually unite the GOP base. The former is probably not going to come in the numbers necessary,  given the present Democratic warchests, ad reservations, and how much campaign time remains. But the later could, especially via FOX, talk radio, and the far-right echo chamber.  That's how Larry Elder kept his lead though he had national backing.

You really think the sympathy vote isn't gonna sway minorities against Schiff to Porter she is now tied 19 with Schiff, Butler didn't bother to attend the forum she missed an opportunity and her support is going to PORTER

Garvey doesn't do anything for Schiff except pushed shift to a runoff with Porter I posted the poll for a reason it had Porter gaining not Schiff, stop believing what other users say

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff isn't leading the last poll had him tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

Or laying the groundwork for Governor? She has a much better chance in 2026 after a good tenure as caretaker where she boosts her name ID. The Gov field for 2026 is pretty wide open right now with no obvious frontrunner.

Lol the last poll had her tied and it's a Runoffs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Katie Porter I already took You Gov Surveys is gonna be next Senator, they aren't even putting Schiff on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I made my list of candidates whom is gonna win and as I said once Feinstein died advantage Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blks and Latina women are moving from Lee to Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sen elect Porter, why would she run and Lee is losing the best bet is Alsobrooks, Blunt Rochester and ALLRED

I feel good about TX and FL they have on Facebook Cruz and Scott losing by 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was kind of hoping she would run for re-election and easily win just so we wouldn't have this annoying thread about a Safe D state race keep popping off.

The Hebrew thing in Israel hurt Lee chances she knew that and declined

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning CA noways, Garvey just took the Lee vote for 3rd

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter Katie Porter and Schiff are going to a runoff I am Def voting for PORTER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't underestimate Porter she is the dog like the Chiefs but can comeback and win v Niners. I hope she wins she is gorgeous and I will be happy to vote for her in primary and GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter how much Schiff has Porter is gonna win SF area while Schiff wins down state CA, it's going to a runoff and I am surely going to vote for Porter she is on Facebook asking for Donations

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As soon as Lee loses and id Porter makes the runoff the blk voters like myself are going to Porter not Schiff that's why Porter has a chance in the GE if she beats Garvey for 2nd

If Garvey makes the runoff it's a fine deal Schiff is the next Senator