California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obvious it's gonna be Porter the D's want a younger women so we can win in 24 the Filibuster proof Trifecta a D Nancy Pelosi stepped down for Jeffries makes way for Sen elect Porter obviously Warren has some influence she was Porter Law School teacher it's no time to play games OH, AZ Gallego, Brown, Kunce, Tester will give us the Secular Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She isn't gonna win which suits Porter fine she runs up the score in upstate CA while Schiff and Barbara Lee split the downstate vote in LA a Runoff between Schiff and Porter inevitable

Blks have no problem voting for Porter against Schiff in a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee isn't gonna win Porter is the next Senator

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Changedy Endorsement to Miz Barbara Lee it's a Runoff anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is targeting FL not TX I am anxious for Rod Joseph and Barbara Lee to join Booker and Warnock, it can flop in 2 yrs just be aware it's 2 yrs before Eday

Biden went to Tampa, FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am gonna send money to Barbara Lee and Kunce and Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff has the advantage now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Schiff has the advantage we need fighters on the S and I think Kunce will ultimately Defeat Hawley because we are so close to a Filibuster proof Trifecta they don't want Sinemas in the Senate we were close last time a Sinema blew, it may very well go to a Runoff anyways, but Schiff fought so hard against the insurrection on the J6 Committee

Just look what happened in 22 the RS used Kenosha WI against Barnes and smeared Beasley as soft on crime and Rs don't want gun control and no telling what Don Jr smeared Ryan but Brown should win

What did the H tell Sinema when she blocked Voting Rights to be bold and grow a backbone that's why I know it's a 303 map but I am bold in projecting a landslide we need a backbone to break the Filibuster

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Adam Schiff in the race no R has a chance and McCarthy saying Schiff should not be Senator makes no difference in CA RS are voting for Schiff over Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is gonna win anyways he wants in on Filibuster proof Trifecta in the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein isn't retiring unless she is incapacitated like Laughtenberg or McCain, Shingles is not a disabled disease

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In case DiFi resigns in the coming weeks or months: With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

I don't know, based on what Xahar and other have said this seems unlike Newsom. More likely he picks Lee with the idea of giving her the advantage in the primary so that then he'll be owed something.

Feinstein isn't retiring unless she is incapacitated, Pelosi is just as old as she is Singles is no reason to resign and Fetterman is out too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She's not resigning, I don't think she wants Lee to replace her, at any rate she told Schumer to appointment a temp replacement

It can change at anytime but this is the status now, I am all in for Schiff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feinstein says she won't step down and if D's win in 24 and win AZ, OH, MO, FL they can appoint all the pro choice judges out there

They are gonna need her on the Debt Ceiling vote but rushing back to Appoint judges and Biden is gonna beat Trump anyways isn't an option

I don't know what Feinstein wants to replace the signs of it she prefers SCHIFF to Lee

Of course Barbara Lee says this it helps her in the primary she is gonna get just 15 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is still favored that's why they got ALLRED and JAWANDO to run because they will win I know CA Porter and Lee will split the vote and Schiff wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barbara Lee is getting stronger due to fact other blks are getting into other races Will JAWANDO and Collin Allred we have blk men running in FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the general is Lee vs Schiff (as is looking likely at the moment) then the general is likely Lee.

Right now, Schiff vs Porter looks far more likely

I hope it is, I like Lee, and I think she would make a good Senator, but she is just too old to be running for a first term in the Senate, especially at a time when we clearly need younger voices in government. Her running now makes me question why she just didn't run in 2016.

Do you know how old Waters, Eleanor Holmes Norton , Durvin and Schumer are 72 to 86 yrs old

The main cause of death of Blk females is Diabetes my mom and Grandma died from those Lee isn't gonna die in office especially not the first Term we need diversity in the S, Rs demonized Beasley, Demings and Barnes now we have JAWANDO, ALLRED and Lee

Also it's very hypothetical when they Rs supported Herschel Walker sex abuser and they support Cruz over ALLRED, ALLRED, Kunce are the best recruits we have and we still don't know whom is gonna be nominated in FLORIDA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a runoff anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1661763830647758849

Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.

Orange County too?

It's a runoff it doesn't matter about polls yet until we get to 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Runoff if Barbara just like Shawn Wilson in LA and Warnock and Ossoff won the GA, Runoffs fav Ds the only Runoff Rs won was in LA in 2014 in a Midterm REPANDEMIC rePandemic when Mary Landeieu lost to Cassidy if she ran in this Midterms Environment she would have won that's the only Runoff Rs won

That's why I have Shawn Wilson and he will make the Runoff Lean D in LA and Presley and Beshesr are 3 not 10 pts down in MS and KY

It won't be an R making the runoff because the Ds are gonna put 2 Da in the Nov ballot it's a Joe Biden Prez Primary in March 24

Stop worrying about polls a yr before an Eday, just like the 24 Prez polls Users are so worried about Biden Approvals and we won the 303 map with 4% unemployment with Boden Approvals in 22 and the GCB is +5 D according to Morning Consult and Change Research not R hack polls

Alsobrooks shouldn't be underestimated either Karen Bass came back from double digits down in CA to Rick Caruso, he won the primary overwhelmingly

That's why I have FL as wave insurance Obama and Biden wasn't fav to win FL in 2008/12 when McCain and Romney won FL in the primary that's what a blue wave is

DeSantis going down too fast for FL to be Safe R anymore that's why Deegan won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee is going to the Runoff and qi. It's a Runoff with Schiff or Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Porter is the fav at the moment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Porter I can root for her but we need more blk women either one is good enough for me an R isn't making it the runoff with a Dem Prez Primary in March 24

We must remember it's VBM it's not same day as I caution users about a red wave, abstintee ballot favors Ds not Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Censure vote makes it more likely than not Schiff is the next Sen from California