TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said blue waves don't happen 16 MNTHS and a blue wave is 52/46 mot 60/40 that's what Obama gotten in 2008/12 and Biden win 50/45 in 20 but Rs overpolled in 20 Trump ran up the deficit with stimulus checks 1.8 T and didn't raise taxes on the rich

No Rs are gutting ever entitlement and we haven't fully recovered from Great Pandemic Great Recession

Of course I can make a 303 map but many users were wrong last time when they Predicted Oz to win I don't copy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance but the reason why Beto lost in 2018/22 he stutters and it showed in 20 Prez debates and Buttigieg took his thunder ALLRED is a great debaters like Obama was so I wouldn't assume it's Safe R wave insurance means more than 303 ALLRED is running against Cruz not Abbott

Users think ALLRED is running against Abbott he's not he's running against Cruz that won by 2 points, just like Scott isn't Rubio he won by 1.5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know its Lean R and as I have said we are running against Cruz not Abbott whom will never be defeated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know Cruz is doomed the question has always been with split voting it's a 303 map but can wave insurance candidates win if Biden doesn't carry the state and Brown is already doing it because LaRose is so unpopular

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz and Scott are only up by 5 and last time Abbott, DeSantis and Rubio were up by Double digits that seems winnable to me

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chiefs are the Favs to win the Superbowl but we don't know how long their slump they had a similar slump in 21 and they recovered but if COWBOYS do win the Superbowl obviously it favors ALLRED, they have to beat the Eagles not just the Giants and then the Chiefs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance and as I said many times don't underestimate Ds in OH, NC, TX and FL there are blk and Brown voting in red and blue STATES

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are all R favored but ALLRED can have a upset, of Valarie McCrary is only 9 down

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance but the closer we get til Eday Trump polls are gonna deteriorating, they are now only R polls have always given Trump the lead and in 22 they labeled highly partisan polls

TX, FL, OH , NC, AK and KS are swing states and MI, PA and WI are blue States

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ALLRED is a Football star that doesn't have the baggage of Walker and if I was Gianforte I would be nervous about Busse, these should be slam dunks just like OH, but even OH isn't safe with Brown, Change has Brown down only 2 and Change has Biden within 5

Nate Silver Pred a 51/49 S AZ, OH, MT and TX, the punditry is gonna have to move it out of Safe R to Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On Facebook Powell is up by 1 and Rodriguez is up by 1 , that's why I changed my map to include FL and TX these aren't TX and FL, OH, NC of 2004 it's 2024

I made FL 90 percentage pts but will change it to 50 percentage pts once the score and Eday arrives

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't poll TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

ITX is pro Guns that's  why it's pro Cruz and  ALLRED is liberal in Guns that's why ALLRED may lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every swing state voted to left of FLORIDA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are 4 seats now in play as upsets potential FL, TX, NEB and MO, the user Pred has OH and MT going R, they aren't WVA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

The thing with polls like this, is people claim to support it but when push come to shove they just don't trust Democrats with the issue. Beto's campaign was DOA after his AR-15 comments, and even Uvalde swung R in 2022. It's not even like Dems need to constantly focus on being pro-gun, but at this point its apparent that TX Dems focus on gun control even more than the national party which is possibly the reason they are struggling so badly. It doesn't cost them anything to shut up about it, but instead you see people like Roland Gutierrez make it the signature issue of their campaign.

Everytime a school shooting happens, Dems only focus on gun control. There is no bipartisan effort to tackle mental health or improve school security (ie more officers, bullet proof doors), and just scream "its the guns" until they go blue in the face and nothing happens until the next cycle.

2022 exit polls

Who do you trust more to handle gun policy?
Abbott 53-44

Are Beto’s views too extreme?
Yes 52-45

Are Abbott’s views too extreme?
No 53-44

Beto isn't an NFL linebacker and OH, FL, NC and TX are upset potentially but is immigration reform an issue in TX and FL too it cuts both ways Rs are against immigration reform but supports Natl security

We don't know what's gonna happen when we vote maps are blank but Biden is at 45 not 60 or 39 meaning it's a 303 map with wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will burst out laugh when Scott and Cruz lose because Rs thought it was over when Cruz was up 16 no it wasn't over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race was the TN 2006 race but ALLRED may actually win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hawley and Cruz are the most endangered Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue Rs are having is that they're not running against Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NEB 51ST SEAT, TX 52 ND AND MO IS 53RD ITS PURE WAVE INSURANCE BUT NOW ITS WINNABLE WITH ALLRED DOWN ONLY 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/george-soros-pours-millions-texas-090059290.html

Trump is up 8/10 pts TX but not Cruz he is leading by 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance just like MO and don't compare 2018 to 24 Abbott has a lot to do with Cruz beating Beto in 18 and 22
That's why Allred is gonna win and Gutierrez is gonna beat Cornyn in 26

I can very well see Trump winning TX and OH and MO by 5 and FL by 10 and Brown, Kunce and ALLRED win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state by state polls are best for Biden it's not a PVI Eday that's why you can have this split voting in the H there always been Ds running up the score in red states but not so much in the S but Ds have a better chance in TX, MO, OH than MT, WV, we must be prepared to lose Tester if Sheely wins the nomination

Fischer is gone and Cruz is gone we don't know if it's Scott or Hawley as the 3 rd most vulnerable R Senator

Lean D NEB, OH, AZ
Tossup TX,MT, MO
Lean R FL

I can see Trump winning MO, OH, TX by 5 and Kunce, Brown and ALLRED winning and Tester and WV going going R, and FL going 10 pts R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ALLRED is down by 2 but an underperforming in OH, MT, MO and TX by Trump would trigger Tester,, Brown and Kunce and ALLRED to win. We already know Scott is gonna win by 10, FL is an R state but not the others Trump may win by 5/6 pts and DeWine had to win by 20 in order for Vance to win by 5

As I said Lean D OH, AZ, Tossup MO, TX, NEB and MT Lean R FL and WV, I had TX Lean R but let's remember Cornyn is gonna have a tough race in 26 if ALLRED wins in 24 Guiterrez is definitely running in 26