WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baldwin will win Biden is back on ballot and WI. The WOW counties that Evers won that Barnes didn't win that Biden won in 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandela Barnes should primary out Baldwin

He won't do that because Tammy Baldwin won her rave last time by 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson won because Crts gerrymandering WI, that's why Rs did better than I'm expecting in NY and Cali, independent commission v R gerrymandering in R states and Commission in Cali

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

A lot more Democratic voters can still be squeezed out of Dane County.  Plus, Dane's turnout could still be a little bit higher.

Clearly replicate the Evers not Barnes map, Barnes clearly lost some votes due to Biden not on ballot and connection to BLM and Kenosha

Same with Brown and Tester they are gonna win by less than 2018 but since Landsman is rep in CVG squeeze more votes out of Hamilton, we lost some votes in CMH and Hamilton due to DeWine that won't be there in 24


Landsman is clearly the fav to take on Vance 28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Gallagher gets in, this race is a tossup at best for Democrats. Apparently he's showing signs that he will likely run.

You're doing again Baldwin is safe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do wonder how much more can be squeezed out of Dane County. Democrats have been doing a damn good job on overall turnout and increasing the margins. Both Evers and Barnes racked up some record margins in the county, but I haven't seen any Democrat crack 80% apart from the WI Supreme Court races.

In terms of topline %, they'll have a hard time getting much higher than 80-83% just cause this is a country with fair elections.

However, Madison is the fastest growing part of WI by far, which I think is the most notable. That's moot if Ds have an aggressive collapse in the rest of the state, but if on net they hold their ground roughly even everywhere else, that's powerful.

Isn't Milwaukee losing population which cancels that out a bit?

RS think Evers didn't win 51/46 and he did

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Baldwin won by 10 in 18 and beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 undestimate her

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why users think Gallagher is gonna run Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not a normal Eday cycle the Welfare offices are still packed with application and SSA 9 percent went down but we still have inflation 7%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baldwin is favored by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not a Maga R like Hogan Sununu and Boehner and Paul Ryan all decline to run during Trump era and Johnson is gone in Prez race 28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kasich, Jeb, Walker, Boehner whom certificate of Obama, Paul Ryan and DeWine are Bush W RS Bush W was a war criminal not on MAGA but Abu Garib that's the difference the RS want Ryan because they don't have a Johnson running this time and need WI and PA for EC


Johnson is Doomed in 28 Barnes, Ryan and Bullock will run again if in 24 if D's get the Filibuster proof Trifecta


I am almost certain the only ones that won't be back are Beasley and Deming's

That's why I am rooting so hard for it and will donate to Gallego and Kunce this time in a Pandemic world you can't donate to everyone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's really strange that an openly lesbian Madison liberal is the strongest statewide office holder in probably the most politically split state in the country. I mean there's reasons why, Baldwin is a really good campaigner and she has a way of relating to people and coming across as personable that's absolutely nothing like Hillary Clinton, but still if there was someone holding a Wisconsin Senate seat that made it uncompetitive, you definitely wouldn't expect it to be her.

Baldwin/Johnson is definitely the most bizarre Senate duo in the country.

Yeah, pretty crazy to think that a state could go from re-electing a raging homophobe to re-electing an open lesbian the next cycle. Incumbency is one heck of a drug indeed.

It was a lower turnout midterm in 22 than 2018 Evers was still reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sean Duffy needs to run

LoL do you know that Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 and won her last race by 10, newsflash we won the WI Gov race by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sean Duffy needs to run

LoL do you know that Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 and won her last race by 10, newsflash we won the WI Gov race by 4

Kelly underpolled Johnson by 10 65/35 to Johnson Kelly 55/45 in the metro suburbs, Tammy Baldwin will beat Kleefish and Brown did the same thing to Renacci that Ryan couldn't do last time and Kunce can do the same thing as Valentine didn't do but McCaskill did in 2012

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, she is the Sherrod Brown of WI not to be underestimate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is the Janet Protasicwz of WI, the RS lost the state by 11 pts it won't be that way in the end but it won't be only 50 K votes it will reflect the PVI like Fetterman and Evers she will win the same vote at least 52/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

Ehh I tend to think Baldwin is overestimated on this forum, however it does Lean Dem at the moment.
The problem is that Republicans just don't have a good bench in WI at the moment and Tiffany is the best they have imo.
Gallagher is a huge warhawk neocon and I'm not sure how that would play in Wisconsin, while Tiffany even voted to take troops out of Syria. He's a populist who is pretty pro-Trump but doesn't tie himself at the hip to Trump the way 2022 candidates did.
Honestly though he'd get national Republicans to invest in the race and that alone makes him a decent candidate.

Baldwin is safe she beat Tommy Thompson in 2912 already, she's not LOSING

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we won WI by 11 in the judge race and Casey is up 12 we aren't losing Baldwin, Slotkin and Casey are safe but it's gonna be closer to Fetterman margins 51/47

There are 80/75 M More Ds than Rs that's  the 20 PVI 52/47 but we can get a Landslide not a 303 map a 380 Map isn't that far off from 303

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very fascinating how this race and Michigan's are completely failing to attract any top Republican talent.

Which will also be interesting for 2024, if neither has a strong GOP recruit at the top of the ticket (double whammy if Trump is also at the top of the ticket)

The Rs won based on Johnson and he won by 1 pt probably only because of IAN the Rs always underpoll when John'son isn't on the ballot that's why

With Gallagher out it's Safe D anyways he probably will run in 28 but Sara Rodriguez is looking to run for S in 28

That's why you don't hear a peep out of 2016 or MT Treasure they need WI to win Eday and AZ and Rs are likely to lose both

The Rs are down 9 in PA, 16 VA, Down in both WI and AZ that's 270

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm glad Gallagher isn't running, if he was the nominee I would support Baldwin.

Idk why people think an anti-Trump neocon Reaganite would be a good fit for Wisconsin lmao. How would he get the rurals or Driftless?

It's a blessing that Gallagher isn't running it's Lean D now with Clarke and due to Trump indictments 303 wall is safe now anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm glad Gallagher isn't running, if he was the nominee I would support Baldwin.

Idk why people think an anti-Trump neocon Reaganite would be a good fit for Wisconsin lmao. How would he get the rurals or Driftless?

2/3 of these apply to RoJo.

You know Rs got a bounce from DeSantis IAN because Janet Protasisaweicwz won by 11 and we won FL and OA 42)48 DeSantis bounce was no different than Obama bounce with Sandy, that's why DeSantis is losing now it's no bounce

I. Addition to that Baldwin in 2012 beat Tommy Thompson she is the Sherrod Brown of OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weird; Tiffany had actually cleared the field and gotten endorsements behind the scenes and so forth. One of the weirder "actually, I'm not running" moments this side of Josh Mandel and Kate Marshall not running for OH-Sen and NV-Sen in 2018.

This is definitely a moment for anyone remotely interested in running to reconsider, though I haven't seen much evidence of this from Clarke (...and, as others have pointed out, in the past he has always run for office as a Democrat, so even if he runs it may well be against Baldwin in a primary. Inasmuch as there's a bubble of interest going on around RFK, we should start seeing people running for lower offices as "RFK Democrats"). If Clarke is interested in running, we'll know soon enough. There's a rich guy named Scott Mayer who I know has had contacts with Daines. The WIGOP wants Eric Hovde, who lost the 2012 Senate primary and can self-fund, but Hovde has now been a tease for over a decade.

Wow, the GOP may actually be stuck with David Clarke, damn. They're having awfully big troubles in WI, MI, and PA.

They got the guy they wanted in PA and cleared the field for him! That's, like, one of Daines' biggest successes. (Daines has also said that the path through a Senate majority goes through WV/MT/OH/PA, which strikes me as oddly optimistic for PA and oddly pessimistic for AZ/NV, but it is what it is.)

Sure, they seemingly got the guy they wanted in PA, but that doesn't make him a great recruit though. The single fact that that the best PA GOP has to offer is David McCormick, who lost a primary to... Mehmet Oz, isn't really saying much imo. There's a reason why no other candidates have really emerged.

it's a 51/47 EC map Trump is leading 51/47 in OH and Biden is leading 51/47 in WI, PA and MI SLOTKIN, Baldwin, Kaine, Rosen, Gallego should win 51/47 and Casey should win 54/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good she isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs cannot win the Prez without WI so it's fake over, and Paul Ryan says if Trump is the nominee he won't actively campaign for Trump in WI so it's a done deal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cal Cunningham and Gideon lost due to Tara Reade and Biden scandal but it wasn't enough to def Biden, it was 9 percentage pts unemployment that's why we got stimulus checks, Cunningham didn't sink Biden the reverse is true because Collins surged after Tara Reade


Married white women not men are the swing group