MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 2 yrs from now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

According to an Article published by "The Hill" Tester hasn't even decided whether to seek Re-Election in 2024. He will decide over the Holidays.

He has retired yet don't be so confident

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What might be critical for Tester is whether there's a libertarian candidate on the ballot and how strong that one is. Libertarians usually take more votes from the GOP, and having such pulling a few points away them would help Tester. Perhaps he can squeak by with another 48-47%.

If I were a MT GOPer, I'd try to use their trifecta in the state to make it hard for any 3rd party candidate to gain ballot access.

Tester has a 48/39 favs he isn't losing


https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the “Tester is the D Collins” takes are a bit overrated, even if he obviously won’t lose by 20. He still does need probably 50,000-60,000 Trump voters to vote for him which doesn’t seem like an easy task also unlike Collins his previous elections were all close, but I do think Democrats are likelier to hold on here than in Ohio.

You mean Trump 2020 voters right? Because he’s not guaranteed to be the 2024 nominee and even a 2024 Trump run could be a disaster who could keep the state close enough on the presidential level to make Tester’s path easier.

Brown has a 46)30 Approvals and Tester has a 48/39 Approval  and Sinema has a 45)41 Approvals the only one DOA is Manchin Justice has a Cooper Approvals 48/39, Johnson won with a 37)41 Approvals

Vance had a 37/41 Approval rating ,Ryan had 46)4o but DeWine won by 20 not 5, Vance was pulled over strictly by DeWine

Trump or DeSantis aren't winning OH by 20, more like 3  but Tester is favored because the only two Rs winning statewide in Gov or Senate in 20 yrs were Racicot, Daines and Gianforte, Tester beat Rehnberg and Rosendale already

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D so the Senate is safe I'd we are winning MT

All this talk about another red wave isn't true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early polling means nothing, especially since the primary has yet to occur and there are so many undecideds. Tester is going to run well ahead of Biden, but it almost certainly won't be enough.

LoL have you seen MS and KY Gov POLL Beshear is 9 pts ahead and we won KS Gov in 22 incumbent matters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R - betting he's gonna lose by 5-7 points

You know Tester already beaten Rosendale in 2018 by 50/46 Daines beat Bullock is not Rosendale and Gianforte is not running for more like Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R - betting he's gonna lose by 5-7 points

You know Tester already beaten Rosendale in 2018 by 50/46 Daines beat Bullock is not Rosendale and Gianforte is not running for more like Gov

2018 was a blue ripple in a midterm of an unpopular R president. 2024 is likely to benefit Rs in Montana downballot as MT will vote 20 points or so R. If Rs run someone who's not Rosendale ( a Trumper) the seat will be likely R.

Yeah it was such a blue ripple we lost MO, IN, FL and ND S lol Tester is a WC D like Beshear is and Beshear is leading by 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never underestimate WC D's Beasley and Deming's lost in red states and Ryan was a WC D but he ran in a Midterm if he ran in a Prez Environment like Brown is he would be fav that's why Beshear and Presley can win and Kunce they are WC Ds

I won't be surprised if KUNCE is plus 4 against Hawley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conventional wisdom is over even Kunce can win Presley is plus 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R - betting he's gonna lose by 5-7 points

You know Tester already beaten Rosendale in 2018 by 50/46 Daines beat Bullock is not Rosendale and Gianforte is not running for more like Gov

2018 was a blue ripple in a midterm of an unpopular R president. 2024 is likely to benefit Rs in Montana downballot as MT will vote 20 points or so R. If Rs run someone who's not Rosendale ( a Trumper) the seat will be likely R.

Yeah it was such a blue ripple we lost MO, IN, FL and ND S lol Tester is a WC D like Beshear is and Beshear is leading by 9

Tester is just another Defund the Police liberal. Last year, he voted to advance the nomination of Sohn at FCC even though Sohn served on the board of a group that vehemently opposed bipartisan bills to protect victims of sex trafficking.

https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2022/3/executive-session-and-hearing

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-fcc-nominee-sits-board-group-opposes-anti-sex-trafficking-efforts

In addition Sohn is sharing anti-law enforcement views as she retweeted or liked anti-police tweets like the one from Jim Gaffigan declaring “Expecting Equal Justice and Being Against Police Brutality is NOT “Being Political”.  It’s Called Basic Empathy.”, another from Evan Greer calling to defund police surveillance, another from Alexandria Occasio-Cortez on June 2020 calling to Defund the Police, another calling to forbid police and law enforcement agents from using military equipment.

https://fop.net/2022/03/gigi-sohn-fop-research-analysis/

Every Democrat backing Sohn's nomination is siding against the police and supports anti-law enforcement radicals whose views do not reflect Montana

LoL RS want to sunset SSA after 5 yrs they said they were gonna attack inflation after they won the H and Trump is about to get indicted in GA insurrection you always talk about D's but you never talk about RS, plus Tester already beat Rosendale 50)46 in 2018 he is a retread like Laxalt that LOST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

George Floyd is over RS cannot run on Defend police anymore BLM is about Gun Control that RS constantly block because of Ron DeSantis his stardom is gonna be over once he loses to Biden and he is down by 4 that's a wave insurance map not a 270 map and he is TL out in 26, we only need WI, MI and PA that have passed laws to ban Assault weapons not TX and FL Tester and Brown have won since 2006

Manchin probably loses this is Robert Byrd seat not Manchin we can afford a lose D's on Act blue are telling voters to Donate to Kunce Brown, Casey and Tester not FL and TX, Kunce is a WC D like Stein, Beshear and Presley and is a Vet or serve on Vet Committee Brown, MENENDEZ, Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No RS have come and comment on this post because Tester is winning their path is only if Brown loses and Brown has managed to win every time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with your argument is that voters are looking at the GOP as the insurrection party and Rick Scott has promised to sunset SSA and give Giant tax cuts for the rich

What does a 1.5T dollar tax cut has to do with raising the minimum wage Boehner sat on during his 6 yr tenure as Speaker it's still 7.50 and not 15.00 and the RS said as soon as they take the H they would tackle inflation it's still 7% they are only investigation of Hunter Biden no plan to tackle the Debt that's why you guys are losing in NC Gov, KY Gov and MS Gov and LA Gov is a Runoff

So it's not just about Tester it's about the R party that's why the RS failed at getting 230 seats and you still criticize D's not RS you guys were supposed to have a red wave and you guys failed in a Midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

Phew. This would have been an auto-flip without him. Truth be told, it probably will still flip, but we've at least got a chance with Tester running. If Tester had retired, there would be no chance.

Tester wouldn't have retired unless Bullock got in, that would have left D's without a candidate Bullock is still interested in 26 against Daines but he wants D's to get the Filibuster proof Trifecta before he runs lol stop underestimate Biden he has never lost a GE campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS are all the same they think polls 2 yrs before Eday are gonna stand  and Trump and insurrection indictments are pending there weren't any indictments before 22


Mt Treasure comes to every thread and has Daines brain there are more Ds than RS in this country because we win the PVI how does Daines reach out to Blks voters in OH, MO,  TX  he doesn't Vance won solely on a Bush W R DeWine, DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Aside from WV D's are fav in MT and AZ and OH and we have wave insurance seats in FL, MO and TX anyways

Rod Joseph, Gallego and Kunce and hopefully Allred will win next Nov and are decorating Vets it's a 538 not 303 and we won AK and KS 22 and winning in MS and KY Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/national-republicans-senate-candidates-rich-00088199

Nestled in the above politico article which mention GOP recruitment of Scheechy is a quote that makes it seem like Zinc won't run.

"But it seems increasingly likely that another contender for Senate in Montana, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who served as Donald Trump’s secretary of the Interior, won’t enter the race. In an interview this month, he said he had not made a decision but that his current focus was on his work on the Appropriations Committee, which he described as a “full-time job.” “I can’t run the Senate campaign and be in Appropriations,” he said."

It seems that the MT GOP won't be so much divided through a wide open primary race, increasing our chances to win the race. A bit like when Rick Scott was the uncontested frontrunner for the Republican senate nomination in 2018, it gave him enough time to raise funds and appeal among general election voters, which likely played a role in his razor thin margin

Eday is 20 mnths away and Biden leads RS in all Prez matchup he is being dogged by Docugate that's bringing down his Approvals but raising taxes would only be raised on people making over 100K a yr and Rs are blocking Student Loan forgiveness which cost 300B the same as we are funding the war in Ukraine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

I said « in presidential elections » and Tester wasn’t running for President in 2012

Obama was Prez we didn't win MT but Tester beat Rehnberg in 2012 I was making the clarification

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the kind of ruthlessness that has long been missing from the MT GOP's way of operating, with election results reflecting that for an equally long time. I support this, but I wouldn’t count on it passing.

More worrying for Democrats than this bill (which might be struck down by the Court if it passed in the state legislature) are the Census numbers:

https://twitter.com/jeremycarl4/status/1641565670507945985

The theory that 2020 was mostly a one-off because of "pandemic refugees" or "Trump-only voters" was already disproven badly in 2022, when virtually every state legislative race mirrored the 2020 results. The state is more polarized internally than at any point in time I can remember.

LoL if we lose the S it will be 48 and Tillis and Collins would be vulnerable in 26 to Jeff Jackson and Golden and 28Johnson is vulnerable again he won't overpolls in a Prez Eday and neither will Vance to Landsman or a Ryan comeback and Rs have only 222 and instead corrupted Biden with Hunter in 28 we will have a brand new Prez race Harris, Newsom and RFK Jr with no Hunter Biden and there is still the Filibuster in the S until Voting Rights is passed and Sinema would be gone Gallego is winning

Filibuster proof Trifecta doesn't stop in 24 it applies thru 28

We had 47 in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note we are targeting TX, FL and MO so just because RS win MT and WV does not automatic give them the S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to win MT and WV we have MO, FL and TX as wave insurance

Josh Hawley only won by 51/45 the same as Vance it's called wave insurance, MOE is 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it
We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it
We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

That's false, I never said that we were guaranteed to win WI, I said that nothing guaranteed that your party wins this Supreme Court race

You want to lecture me about being wrong? You have always said that Terry McCauliffe was going to win in VA, you've been wrong. You've always said that Tim Ryan was going to win in Ohio, you've been wrong. You've always said that Charlie Crist was going to win in FL, you've been wrong

I always had Brown winning and oh DeSantis received the same bump that Obama dis on Sandy why is he losing to Biden now by 7 pts a 7 pt victory give us OH, TX and NC 380 EC votes