OH: Siena Research Institute: Vance (R) tied with Ryan (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Glad to see this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan, FRANKEN, Barnes and Fetterman and McMullin are strong candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

Easier path doesn't necessarily mean the election will be closer though. I think Ryan will lose by more than Barnes and Beasley. Not a huge difference, but still by more.

Lol every poll has this race tied, do you know how much DeWine got of the blk vote in 2018 he got 6% and Cordray got 6% guess how much Renacci and Vance are getting 0.5 that's the difference in the Gov and Sen RACE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

You Rs tend to underestimate the blk vote Abbott, DeWine and DeSantis are even pegging with Ds with blk vote about 6% and Vance, Buds are getting zilch

Vance looks like Eric Trump and Don Jr is campaign with Vance not DeWine do you think that Vance is gonna get close to 6% of blk  vote with Don Jr, no

The reason why the lead is so large because females are gravitational towards DeWine and Reynolds, DeSantis too but not Vance and Budd

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

I don't think there's any question this is true.  It could also be framed as Ryan, even if he loses, is the most overperforming Senate candidate from either party this year.  It's probably some of both; Ryan is a very good candidate and Vance is a poor one.  The combination is making Ohio unexpectedly close.

How users believe Siena poll that has Abbott up by 9 but at same time Vance is tied with Ryan and they don't believe that it's contradicting to me, they think Vance is a shoe in and he's not