OH: Siena Research Institute: Vance (R) tied with Ryan (D)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Siena Research Institute on 2022-10-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Person Man]

He’s not dead yet. Im sure the actual numbers would make the other side scream “VOTER FRAUD!!!!1one” if it happened to them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Glad to see this

[axiomsofdominion]

Siena has been incredibly down on Dem chances this cycle. So pretty interesting to see these numbers. Wonder how you could explain a big miss here if their other polls are fine.

Personally suspect their last national poll was an outlier.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan, FRANKEN, Barnes and Fetterman and McMullin are strong candidates

[MT Treasurer]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

[Sir Mohamed]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

Easier path doesn't necessarily mean the election will be closer though. I think Ryan will lose by more than Barnes and Beasley. Not a huge difference, but still by more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

Easier path doesn't necessarily mean the election will be closer though. I think Ryan will lose by more than Barnes and Beasley. Not a huge difference, but still by more.

Lol every poll has this race tied, do you know how much DeWine got of the blk vote in 2018 he got 6% and Cordray got 6% guess how much Renacci and Vance are getting 0.5 that's the difference in the Gov and Sen RACE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

You Rs tend to underestimate the blk vote Abbott, DeWine and DeSantis are even pegging with Ds with blk vote about 6% and Vance, Buds are getting zilch

Vance looks like Eric Trump and Don Jr is campaign with Vance not DeWine do you think that Vance is gonna get close to 6% of blk  vote with Don Jr, no

The reason why the lead is so large because females are gravitational towards DeWine and Reynolds, DeSantis too but not Vance and Budd

[MT Treasurer]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

Easier path doesn't necessarily mean the election will be closer though. I think Ryan will lose by more than Barnes and Beasley. Not a huge difference, but still by more.

I think all three lose by ~5-7 points, actually.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

I don't think there's any question this is true.  It could also be framed as Ryan, even if he loses, is the most overperforming Senate candidate from either party this year.  It's probably some of both; Ryan is a very good candidate and Vance is a poor one.  The combination is making Ohio unexpectedly close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

I don't think there's any question this is true.  It could also be framed as Ryan, even if he loses, is the most overperforming Senate candidate from either party this year.  It's probably some of both; Ryan is a very good candidate and Vance is a poor one.  The combination is making Ohio unexpectedly close.

How users believe Siena poll that has Abbott up by 9 but at same time Vance is tied with Ryan and they don't believe that it's contradicting to me, they think Vance is a shoe in and he's not

[Lief 🗽]

So the generic ballot is R+6 and Ohio is tied? Okay…

[If my soul was made of stone]

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Those people must have great core strength. 

[wbrocks67]

So the generic ballot is R+6 and Ohio is tied? Okay…

And DeWine is up 24%.... so it's clearly about incumbency and candidate quality.

[Aurelius]

It sure looks like there are a lot of Trumbull County #Populists for Tim Ryan!

[Hope For A New Era]

Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).

Missourian coming in to say that I definitely feel MO-SEN 2016 vibes happening here.

[President Johnson]

Somewhat remarkable Ryan's polling numbers didn't collapse, as it has been the case with Democrats in Ohio over the summer months. I still have little faith in this state. Sticking with my prediction that Vance will end up between 51-53% and Ryan between 45-47%.

[Mr. Illini]

Ryan has run an incredible campaign. He will still lose by a few points, but he can feel good about himself for battering his cretin opponent for the last 10 months.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Sounds like a 54-46 race then. Vance wins by 8. Sounds about right.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Missourian coming in to say that I definitely feel MO-SEN 2016 vibes happening here.

Let's talk about MO-SEN 2018, shall we?

[wbrocks67]

Sounds like a 54-46 race then. Vance wins by 8. Sounds about right.

The undecideds shake out to 2%D, 2%R, and 10% Independent. Ryan winning Indies by 5 here and favorables are worse for Vance than Ryan, so I don't think this is necessarily "all undecideds go GOP" here

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Look, it's a close race! Anyone could win!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Sounds like a 54-46 race then. Vance wins by 8. Sounds about right.

The undecideds shake out to 2%D, 2%R, and 10% Independent. Ryan winning Indies by 5 here and favorables are worse for Vance than Ryan, so I don't think this is necessarily "all undecideds go GOP" here

...

Ryan winning Indies by 5 here

...

I think what you mean is Ryan is winning Indies *who are not undecided* (and actually not Indies, but in fact just Indies that were polled) by 5.

Indies who are decided are not the same thing as indies who are undecided.

In Red States, undecideds tend to break Republican. In Blue states, undecideds tend to break Democratic.

Or, in reality, a lot of 'undecideds' don't vote or simply use it as a way to avoid saying who they are going to vote for. And also a lot of people who say they 'definitely will' vote don't in fact vote, while a lot of people who say they won't vote do in fact vote.