OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is winning so it's likely that Brown gets reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador is a Doomer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1592318675167895552?t=A3OpkBnxcQPfFolKAg...

Let the GOP nominate this gentleman as soon as possible, because I really want to see Senator Brown win by a landslide of 15 percent

He's not winning by a landslide if he wins it's gonna be by Johnson numbers not more than that because Trump and DeSantis are gonna win OH, lol do you recall Ryan and Nan W Lost, but Brown like Johnson are best off due to Incumbents

Casey v McCormick isn't gonna be a Landslide either it's gonna be like Fetterman 51/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With a 51/49 D S we can afford to lose one and FL, if DEMINGS, Graham run and OH, MT and WVA are vulnerable any combo of those can put us in a 51(50 tie TX is not competitive Cruz is Safe Colin Aldred isn't running

I can see Brown, Tester or Manchin losing and if we win FL that will offset any losses it depends on this WVA pipeline it will help Manchin reelection prospects greatly we should of passed Keystone Landrieu would of won and I am not pro fossil fuels

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R....Brown will lose reelection

No, OH, WVA or MT can split it's votes for Prez and Sen DeSantis or Trump can win all three and combo of Brown, Tester or Manchin can win just like Kemp/Warnock, Lombardo/CCM and Evers/Johnson voters DeWine won by 20 pts that's why Ryan lost DeSantis or Trump are gonna win OH by 3 which can allow Brown to win narrowly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Majewski is probably the only Republican who can blow this race.

(Can't wait to see this statement age like fine wine)

Are you aware of split voting, Brown can win when if DeSantis or Trump won this state why because they won't win by 20 like DeWine did, they will win OJ by 3 Brown won in 2018 when SeWine won by 3 not 8

I hear so many different perspectives on this race between Safe R to Ds winning this race by a landslide obviously, it's gonna be close and so is Casey v McCormick gonna be close we all thought Barnes was gonna auto flip WI and he LOST

Obviously, inflation isn't gonna be 7% by 24 it's gonna be lower

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown reiterated his intent to run today:

https://twitter.com/reshadhudson/status/1592588672230391809

I love Sherrod and I'm glad he's running, hes gonna be in for a tough fight though winning on the same ballot as whoever the D's put up for president won't be easy especially if Republicans nominate someone semi-Sane. He and Tester are definitely the most vulnerable D incumbents for 24.

He's not that Vulnerable because DeWine isn't on the ballot and Trump and DeSantis aren't winning OH by 20 pts more like 3 and they won't even match 2016/20 it's gonna be within 3/5 pts in 24

If Brown manages to win all the users are gonna say Ryan was lame but DeWine won by oy 3 in 2018 when Brown won by 6  and likewise Trump or DeSantis are likely to win by 3 in 24 they are still favored but not by 9 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is a good man, but he will probably lose Ohio and be the last Democrat to represent Ohio statewide for a while.

Ed Schultz must be rolling in his grave.

If Tim Ryan couldn't do it, Brown will run out of luck in 2024.

Sad.

2024 will very likely be a better year for Dems than 2022.

OH if Brown, Tester or Manchin win will split it's votes and DeWine whom won 60/4o won't be on the ballot, Rs will win it by 3 OH in a Prez yr, just like DeWine won by 3 and Brown won in 2018, but Brown and Ryan were friends and would have had offices and desk next to each other in the SEN

Don't underestimate Don Jr he campaign non stop for Vance Ryan didn't have a surrogacy, Rs are gonna campaign against Brown in 24 but Brown is Incumbents

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Brown to win statewide. I'd rate this as Lean D. He ran 7 points ahead of Cordray in 2018 and 8 points ahead of Biden in 2020. He'll have a closer election but I expect republicans will loose, even if they nominate a competent candidate.

Brown (and this entire class of Democratic Senators) have been EXTREMELY lucky with how the national environment benefited them: 2006, 2012, and 2018 were all Democratic-favorable years.

It's probably second only to Democratic Senators who were up in 1958 (largest gain ever), 1964 (LBJ landslide) and 1970 (Nixon midterm).

Btw that class probably had the best luck ever cause the next election after that was the Carter election then was Reagan’s first midterm .

So really the first non democratic environment they faced was 1988 and even then 1988 was basically the definition of a status quo election so it wasn’t really unfavorable either. So btw 1994 was really the first unfavorable environment that class would have faced an in fact since 1958 , it may be the only election unfavorable for that class since 2006,12,18 were from that same exact class.

Conservative are confused here do you know whom is gonna pay their students loans back when they get reinstated due to Crts blocking Biden Student Loan Forgiveness, Rich people poor people aren't gonna pay one nickel of it it back , we are in IDR which means if you are low income you don't have to pay but 0/5% back, I haven't paid one nickel of it back since I have been out of school but rich people must pay they aren't los income, it doesn't matter about 20K forgotten to me, but if you make 80K you are likely to have a mountain of debt because you probably took out 200K student loans

The Rs are gonna put the Border wall back that Obama and Biden built 128 miles and Trump finished 400 miles and the WVA pipeline but making tax cuts permanent I'd not gonna hold because SSA is going insolvent I'd we don't raise taxes it's gonna go bankrupt in 2035, on 221 RH they don't have the votes to impeach based on Kean Jr and Fitzpatrick votes, so even if the investigate Hunter it won't end impeachment there has been no smoking gun uncovered

Brown is gonna win in 24, Ryan lost because DeWine won by 60/40 Ryan lost by Bullock margins and Rs if they win OH is gonna win by 3/5 not 60/40

But this idea that Andy Verejaou says Brown is some immortal over Ryan isn't correct PA is gonna be very tight 51/46, if Brown, Tester or Manchin win they are gonna win by Johnson margins since they are Incumbents not challengers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is favored not because he is some immortal over Ryan, Brown is more on the news than Ryan is because he has been out of the H since 2006 and not only that DeWine isn't on the ballot he won Hamilton county and Brown and Biden are gonna win Hamilton




We discussed this Poli Sci 200 Reps unless they are in leadership roles aren't recognized as much as Senators but I can see him along with Manchin and Tester winning by Johnson numbers

Ryan I was disappointed that in prep for this Senate run he should of spearheaded a DCCC for 2 yrs some type of leadership role like Brown, Casey is gonna win by Fetterman numbers if he runs against McCormick

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown announced he is running so that Ryan doesn't run for this seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Did users just see what happened none Incumbents lost reelection in the Senate and 1 Incumbent Gov lost reelection Brown isn't losing unless it's a red wave but we have MT, WVA and FL vulnerable

It's like Walker just won which he didn't a users keep talking red wave it's no red wave

Just like Rs keep saying DeSantis Biden hasn't run a single ad against him he was losing in a Listener poll before Hurricane he has done zilch h for poor people except Disasters, and he is against Student Loan Discharge after he is an Ivy League schools

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Matt Dolan is very likely in -

Matt Dolan, the Senate candidate who was the biggest surprise as he surged during the closing weeks of Ohio’s crowded and combustible Republican nomination race earlier this year, is taking concrete steps that could set him up for a second straight run for the Senate when Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s up for reelection in 2024.

Dolan, a state senator from the Cleveland area, was showered with support earlier this week during an event in Columbus where he was inducted into the Association of Ohio Commodores, an organization that assists the state in its advancement of economic growth and prosperity. The event attracts political leaders and activists from across Ohio. According to one attendee in the room, Dolan received sustained applause and was approached by numerous people pledging their support should he launch a 2024 Senate campaign.

Sources close to Dolan tell Fox News that while he’s not made a final decision on a bid, he’s taken steps in recent weeks to expand his pool of potential donor support and secure senior leadership for his campaign and leadership PAC, should he press ahead with a candidacy in the new year.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-republican-takes-steps-launch-senate-challenge-vulnerable-democrat-sherrod-brown-2024

So, Brown has a 46/30 Approvals and Biden is leading DeSantis 8 Brown has survived since 2006 we expect to lose MANCHIN to Justice and Sinema to primary Gallego but not Brown and Tester and Scott whom only won by 1 is vulnerable if Stephanie Murphy runs, that's 51/49 S and 218 in H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown and Tester are gonna survive if DeSantis is down by 8 we don't need Manchin or Sinema loses to Gallego but the way Gallego was talking he believes in the Ds are gonna net the H and he can run for the S to fix the Filibuster reform

There is a process called Filibuster reform it doesn't automatically mean that we go to 51 seats it's called a talking Filibuster if the minority doesn't have the votes it goes to 51

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Safe R until we get POLLS, S019 predicted Laura Kelly to lose an R22 state and she won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown shouldn't be that difficult to dislodge, I maintain that the trickiest seat for the GOP is defeating Tester.

Do you know why Ds win it's because RS refuses to raise the Fed minimum wage to 13 an HR it's been stuck at 7.50 and Ryan lost because only due to DeWine pulling Vance over not the other way around DeWine won by 25 and he isn't on the ballot in 24, but tte Documents story is gonna factor in Biden commit a Misdemeanor not a felony due to negligence not intentional

Some users think Ds are gonna lose just because they are socialst yes because 50 M are in Poverty it's not a laughing matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Imagine unironically believing that Republicans need Mike DeWine to beat Sherrod Brown or that Sherrod Brown will overperform by as much as Nancy Kaptur (when he’s never done that in the past and there are absolutely no indications the OH GOP is going to nominate someone like Majewski).

This isn’t any better than a Lean R race for Democrats.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout).

Cenk Uygur, is that you?

He did beat Mike DeWine in 2006 and no it's not Lean R until we see a poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 2 yrs to Eday folk's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as this document story continues to unfold most red states are gonna Lean R anyways, Biden was seen as some Working class D he isn't one now because he is seen as corrupted just like Bill Clinton was a Working class D and won the S well when Lewinsky scandal happened he lost the S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) actively considering a run for Senate:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3884124-ohio-secretary-of-state-actively-considering-senate-run-in-2024/

Not unsurprising, but continues the pattern of OH-SEN 2024 being the one major Senate race (in addition to WV-SEN, assuming Justice goes for it) where Republicans seem to be getting a lot of good news on the recruitment side even at this early stage.

Depends who else runs.  A weak candidate like Davidson, Yost, or Johnson could easily end up whooping his a** in the primary, especially with Dolan also running and potentially being a spoiler.

Republicans don't need a very strong candidate to win this race. Hell, the only person who would probably blow it is Majewski, but he doesn't seem interested. A shame.

LoL do you see the polls in MT, KY and MS we are winning red states Trump is about to get indicted this is gonna hurt the R party, you are still rooting for RS like S019 that's too bad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) actively considering a run for Senate:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3884124-ohio-secretary-of-state-actively-considering-senate-run-in-2024/

Not unsurprising, but continues the pattern of OH-SEN 2024 being the one major Senate race (in addition to WV-SEN, assuming Justice goes for it) where Republicans seem to be getting a lot of good news on the recruitment side even at this early stage.

Depends who else runs.  A weak candidate like Davidson, Yost, or Johnson could easily end up whooping his a** in the primary, especially with Dolan also running and potentially being a spoiler.

Republicans don't need a very strong candidate to win this race. Hell, the only person who would probably blow it is Majewski, but he doesn't seem interested. A shame.

Just a note MT Treasure predicted Oz winning and he LOST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance anyways but Biden is at 50/49 Biden as the inc can have Coattails that unlike in a Midterm D's are best off, DeWine isn't in the ballot this time winning by 25, just think of it as wave insurance, Kunce can win an upset too Abortion is on the ballot MO, unlike MT and WV, whereas FL, AZ and MO, TX, NC are blk and brown population

Beshear and Presley are winning in Red states and Wilson doesn't have to win outright and make the runoff, Laura Kelly won in 22 just remember that as 303 map isn't inevitable, wave insurance

MO, AZ with Gallego, OH and MT are out ticket to a Filibuster proof Trifecta then it's FL, TX and WV in that order

As I keep saying there are VBM its not same day voting we have to wait til all the VBM ballots are just like we will have to in 23 before we call an Eday but users think it's gonna be a quick R win like they always do

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown has a better shot than Ryan does by the very nature DeWine whom won by 25 isn't directly on the ballot RS are naturally advantaged as it appears in FL and TX because the blk candidate running arent Barnes, Warnock, Beasley and Demings quality, we have a better shot in MO, because of KS, OH and MT with a probable retirement of course from Manchin to keep 51 votes we will see how KY and MS and NC G goes Presley is down by 7 but VBM have been good to us outside of FL and TX Beshear was behind last time and came back on VBM so can Presley, and it's slow not quick, users forget Beshear was like Presley was now he came back on strength of blk vote he was behind late he didn't automation win


It's also a Prez Eday not Midterm where Biden doesn't have to go everywhere his name is  back on ballot he doesn't have to visit OH he isn't all that popular Brown would he best to campaign himself there with Biden name RS forget unlike in 22 Biden name is back on the ballot

This is why Brown and Tester ajd Kunce are confident outside of FL, TX and WV we have AZ, OH, MT and MO which will get us 51 and we woj KS 22 it's an upset MO but Abortion rights is on the ballot like in KS 22 in 24 but Jay Ashcroft like Gianforte and Capito will have some coattails hut not like DeWine, Abbott and DeSantis because this is a Prez Eday not Midterm

MO and KS were close in 2006/2008/12/16/20/22 and Sharice David's is planning on run for Gov MO and KS have replaced IA as a swing state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is favorite