If you're a Republican, what's the hope at this point to still have a big night?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Two things already said:

1. A polling error, at least election results compared to today.

2. It's still 2 months out and things can shift. It's not a huge shift that's needed and the GOP even now is still favored to take the House.

Lol do you know when VBM urban vote take place Oct 1/31st not Nov EDay the rural vote votes last in Nov Niden Approvals are the Highest since Sept 11th 2021 when Gov Newsom won the recall the best for Ds not Rs are yet to come that's why Crist is only behind 51/46 and he will pick Gwen Graham as his running mate that's why Crist is begging girl Biden endorsement abd that Vance 50/45 lead is the same as DeSantis 51/46 lead 5 pts MOE it's not 20 pts


Gillum was up 52/46 a month before EDay DeSantis won by .18not 20 pts

You say the same thing oh the Rs get all the undecided votes how did Mary Peltola and  Pat Ryan win we over perform in VBM early votes


I don't expect Old School to get it he still believes that R wave that won't happen , lol Kelly is up 10 pts  if it was an R wave Masters would of been in front by now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hope that polls are way off again (not an unreasonable expectation) and that special election results will be unrepresentative because turnout differentials favor highly motivated members of the Democratic base, while a higher turnout election in November could potentially bring out more GOP voters. That second point would still be problematic for them, as it would probably limit their possibility for significant gains and they would probably get less crossover appeal from soft Dem leaners than they would have if the election took place a year ago.

I seriously doubt that the early vote which I said in my previously statement from Oct 1/31 will be heavy GOP favored the urban vote like we saw in NY 19 is heavily D and the rural vote will bee R they won't be tabulated until November EDay

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not feeling much hope at the moment. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong since about May. Republicans basically need inflation to pick back up and some major/external event to occur which pushes the conversation back toward issues they're stronger on or which make the Dems look weak/bad or for the left to completely overplay their hand on some major issue. No idea what that would be.

The Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 and they needed help with Trump with Jill Stein and Gary Johnson with Hillary had we ran Bernie or Martin OMalley Trump would have LOST in 2016 inflation, Masters haven't lead in a single poll pre Dobbs 40/39 Kelly post Dobbs 50/43

It's the same blue wall map that we left off at after 2020

The Rs lost 3* to Biden 2* as Veep and one time as Prez and will again in 24