Marquette - WI Gov - Evers +2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dodged Kleefisch that's the important thing what would polls be like if she won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

Biden Inflation Reduction Act is supported by 53:percent and Kleefisch is not on the ballot D's celebrated that Kleefisch, Schultz and Sullivan weren't on the Ballot the Rs voted against Inflation Reduction Act

It's a 303 FREIWAL MAP LIKE YOU ALWAYS SAY 272 FREIWAL YOU COIN THE PHASE NOT OTHER USERS IT WAS ADOPT ON ATLAS, D's are legislating too they're not just passing zilch

MT TREASURE COINED THE PHASE 272 FREIWAL AND WI IS PART OF 272  OR  303 FREIWAL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very weird that Evers is underperforming Barnes, and I doubt that ends up being the case (or if it does, it’ll be by a much smaller margin), though one explanation could be that voters aren’t as opinionated about Michels as they are about Johnson. Not ready to buy these races going Democratic yet, but if Johnson can’t increase his favorability rating like he did in 2016 (which later polls did pick up and it was a huge factor in his late surge), Republicans should not be overconfident here. I’d still call the Senate race Lean R (though if the environment really has improved for Democrats, closer to Tilt than Likely) while the gubernatorial race is Tilt R, but Republicans should learn from the Democratic overconfidence here from 2016 and not make the same mistake. The trendline between this poll and later ones will also be something to watch.

Maybe due to fact Barnes is youthful and Evers abd Ron Johnson are losing because they are both elderly, if you are gonna convince MT Treasure or 2016:that Ron Johnson is not gonna win it's not gonna happen the Rs are convinced that Johnson is untouchable just like they think Vance is untouchable and he is losing

Barnes is just as Liberal on social issues as R Warnock

These same Rs said that Warnock before GA is was Likely R before we the Runoff because they wanted an R Senate not D SENATE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

I don't disagree with you that this poll is flawed, but technically more people in this sample say they are voting for Johnson (44%) than Michels (43%) so not sure this reasoning holds up.

MT Treasure said Perdue was gonna beat Warnock too last yr and now he says Barnes is gonna lose to Johnson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kleefisch isn't on the ballot and if Barnes wins so will Evers we solidify the 303 blue wall anyways and the rest is wave insurance we are leading in CO, AZ, NV, MI, PA and WI and that soldified the 270 blue wall