UT-Tyler poll McCounghey leads Abbott by 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCounghey 44%
Abbott 35%
Undecided 21%
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/09/19/abbotts-right-turn-deflates-gop-rivals-but-opens-door-for-orourke-mcconaughey-newsut-tyler-poll/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is only up 5 against Beto, he is vulnerable, but Biden needs a bill out of Congress that shows progress, he needs more than extend Unemployment, he needs a 2.9TSpending, and Congress have a 60 vote requirement to lift Debt Ceiling

Sinema and Manchin strikes again and won't get rid of Fillibuster

But, DeSantis is only up 3 on Crist

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UWS says Beto has zero chance abd says that Demings is too liberal and Crist won't win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Biden didn't enforce the Walk in anticipation passing immigration reform that Trump told Hillary she won't get


The immigration reform and VR has no effect on our blue wall states  of NM, AZ, NV and CO

Which are different type of Latinos than TX and FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Why are you replying to me with your incoherent nonsense?

It's the TRUTH DEAL WITH IT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna win TX in a Neutral Environment they need a 5 or better Environment, too bad Covid didn't go away otherwise we could of been in a D Environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think Abbott is in this much danger of losing in 2022 (any McCounghey vs. Abott [R] race would be framed as a D vs. R contest), but it’s true that people have been exaggerating his and DeSantis's crossover appeal. I don’t think either Republican will perform much better than generic R or win over a large percentage of Biden voters.

Abbott winning by a Trump 2020 margin is more likely than a double-digit win, especially with the D base this engaged and no signs of serious pro-GOP reversion of the D-trending metros. I absolutely don’t see him winning by more than Reynolds, for instance.

Blue waves happen in the same yr of ELECTION not in the yr before, we have 14 mnths and I wouldn't underestimste Crist or Beto, with 40% Latinos in the state just like you Rs lost AZ which is 40% since McCain died
 
WE WERE ONLY EXPECTED TO GAIN 10 SEATS IN H in 2017

Beto and Crist and Demings are underdogs but remember we didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we won them in Aug/Sept Oct 2o18