UT-Tyler poll McCounghey leads Abbott by 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCounghey 44%
Abbott 35%
Undecided 21%
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/09/19/abbotts-right-turn-deflates-gop-rivals-but-opens-door-for-orourke-mcconaughey-newsut-tyler-poll/

[Person Man]

He probably loses if people are talking about abortion next year instead of Afghanistan, inflation, or COVID.

[SnowLabrador]

He probably loses if people are talking about abortion next year instead of Afghanistan, inflation, or COVID.

There's not a chance in hell Abbott loses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is only up 5 against Beto, he is vulnerable, but Biden needs a bill out of Congress that shows progress, he needs more than extend Unemployment, he needs a 2.9TSpending, and Congress have a 60 vote requirement to lift Debt Ceiling

Sinema and Manchin strikes again and won't get rid of Fillibuster

But, DeSantis is only up 3 on Crist

[Skill and Chance]

He probably loses if people are talking about abortion next year instead of Afghanistan, inflation, or COVID.

There's not a chance in hell Abbott loses.

If it's a one-on-one race with a Dem, I agree.  If it's McConaughey as an independent with a no-name Dem and McConaughey has enough money to self-fund, he could plausibly get the upset with a plurality.

[Gass3268]

How easy is it for an Independent to get on the ballot in Texas? They should do the Alaska strategy with McCounghey here.

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican

[Skill and Chance]

How easy is it for an Independent to get on the ballot in Texas? They should do the Alaska strategy with McCounghey here.

Hard (early deadlines), but not impossible.  Look at the crazy governor's race in 2006!

[Pollster]

The far more important topline result here is that Beto O’Rourke has gained serious ground on Abbott from their last poll and now only trails by five.

[wbrocks67]

The far more important topline result here is that Beto O’Rourke has gained serious ground on Abbott from their last poll and now only trails by five.

I really think people overthink his Dem primary campaign. It was literally ages ago and pretty irrelevant at this point. He's kind of rebooted himself since then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish...

The far more important topline result here is that Beto O’Rourke has gained serious ground on Abbott from their last poll and now only trails by five.

I really think people overthink his Dem primary campaign. It was literally ages ago and pretty irrelevant at this point. He's kind of rebooted himself since then.

As true as that may be, as long as "damn right we're coming for your AR-15's" exists as a soundbite, he has no chance of ever replicating how he did in 2018.

[Suburbia]

Likely/Safe Republican

Beto's gun stance will damage him in Texas

[DrScholl]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Matthew McConaughey is a moderate hero, he is probably going to run as a independent.

[Cyrusman]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UWS says Beto has zero chance abd says that Demings is too liberal and Crist won't win

[SteveRogers]

How easy is it for an Independent to get on the ballot in Texas? They should do the Alaska strategy with McCounghey here.

Very difficult. You need a boatload of petition signatures, you have a narrow window to get them between the primary and the deadline, and only people who didn’t vote in either partisan primary can sign the petition. It’d be doable but expensive.

[DrScholl]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Biden didn't enforce the Walk in anticipation passing immigration reform that Trump told Hillary she won't get


The immigration reform and VR has no effect on our blue wall states  of NM, AZ, NV and CO

Which are different type of Latinos than TX and FL

[DrScholl]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Why are you replying to me with your incoherent nonsense?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Why are you replying to me with your incoherent nonsense?

It's the TRUTH DEAL WITH IT

[DrScholl]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

The Border crisis is out of control and Biden let illegals come in not enforcing the wall, so it's not a one issue campaign that's why DeSantis is leading too

Immigration reform isn't gonna get passed and we don't know about VR and without those two issues, the R gerrymandering is gonna be tough to crack in TX and FL.
We don't need TX and FL to win the Prez and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside

We are gonna keep our H seats but the two new districts are Safe R

Why are you replying to me with your incoherent nonsense?

It's the TRUTH DEAL WITH IT

Wow, all caps. Someone is angry.

[Cyrusman]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

Sure and that will be nearly 2 years old by November 2022. It will have just as much effect as the California power outages in the summer of 2020 did for Newsom
And your clearly  showing bias if you don’t think for a minute Beto’s comments won’t hurt him.

[DrScholl]

At this point whatever O'Rourke said about guns is irrelevant since the votes he needs aren't AR-15 fanatics and gun control will not be on the front burner. What will matter next year is Abbott's response to COVID, the abortion bill and the power grid failure. You also have to factor in that Abbott is seeking a third full term and that can be a hard sell with declining approvals.

You can’t say that Beto’s comments are irrelevant then bring out the power grid situation. That will be long history by November 2022 as well. That will not be an issue by then and long forgotten about. Last year there were awful consistent power outages in California during the summer with some areas not having power for 1-2 days and that was competent irrelevant in the California election.

Um, the power grid situation was a real issue for millions of people and there still haven't been any real steps to correct the problem. But whatever you want to believe, I have no desire to argue with folks like you.

Sure and that will be nearly 2 years old by November 2022. It will have just as much effect as the California power outages in the summer of 2020 did for Newsom
And your clearly  showing bias if you don’t think for a minute Beto’s comments won’t hurt him.

Comments and actual events are two different things. Next year is very unlikely to be about gun control and any Democrat running statewide in Texas is going to run on an easy issue like the power grid. It's something that you can remind voters of that will actually stick.

California's power outages were blamed on the power companies by most people. Texas' massive power failure was the result of deregulation.

But God Bless You.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna win TX in a Neutral Environment they need a 5 or better Environment, too bad Covid didn't go away otherwise we could of been in a D Environment