Predictions as of June 2021

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and NH goes D 52/48 Senate while GA goes to a runoff, Johnson is DONE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: R+20 (233R-202D)
Senate: R+3 (AZ, NV, NH flip; Warnock is saved by the runoff)

Senate races within 5%: AZ, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC, GA (so the six closest states in US-PRES 2020 + NH)

I will add that this is on the R-friendly end of my range of plausible outcomes for 2022, and as you can see, several of these races are close enough that they could go D in a D overperformance nationally or a slightly D-leaning as opposed to just a slightly R-leaning environment. I am not expecting a 2010-type blowout at this point (there likely will be a bigger R wave if the D caucus really decides to ram through the vast majority of agenda items on the progressive 'wishlist', i.e., S 1, nuking the filibuster, implementing court-packing schemes, adding D.C., etc., but at this point it does not look like that will happen).

One thing that would surprise me is if Democrats managed to do well in the Senate races (or held the Senate, for that matter) while losing their House majority by a margin that cannot be described as razor-thin.

How do you account for this last poll had Kelly up by 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish we would see polls from IA, OH, NC, we know Grayson internal poll has Rubio up 5, the D's won't show internal polls of any of these races because the D's are probably losing by 5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are 500 not 180 days out from an Election a blue wave can develop not this yr but next yr, we didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we won them on ADS in 2018

Blue dogs, Ryan, Jackson, Crist helps Deming's, Kelly and Fetterman can all win next yr


The only reason why Blue Dog Bullock lost was due to Gianforte not Daines, the only one that can beat Tester, and he is Gov

There are House effects or Bradley effects to these polls take them with a grain of salt

But, the idea of D's losing WI, and Tammy Baldwin won by lopsided margins is silly, that WI is OH and IA,  but we can certainly win OH with blue dog Ryan, that's why I donated the him and Whaley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win in 2022 wait and see

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those are your Prediction, everyone will predict their own when the maps come out, it certainly won't be yours and we all gonna vote, polls are useless when Election day arrived that's why polls were off

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans gain New Hampshire, Democrats gain Pennsylvania. No net change, still 50-50 in the Senate until 2024 (when the GOP will almost certainly gain the Senate)

Sure

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jim Jordan already says he is staying in the H he isn't running for Sen or Gov they asked him to run already

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

52/48 So much for Chris Sununu, Biden is plus 8 over Trump in NH, Hassan will win, Users need to stop acting like WI is OH, it's not Baldwin won by 10pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A wave can develop next yr we shouldn't be closed minded and Kunce and Ras Smith can in Fact win, same with Gross in AK, he isn't running against Sullivan, he is running against Murkowski and Kelky whom are far weaker than Sullivan, the ads are out raising Rs on Act blue

I endorsed Kunce and Ras Smith and plan to donate to Ras Smith, I already donated to other candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Flips: WI, PA (D+2)
Tossups: NC (Lean R), GA (Lean D), NH (Lean D), AZ (Tilt D)

I was just saying if you believe in your candidate Kunce you should put his as a win, the election is 500 days

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was just saying if you believe in your candidate Kunce you should put his as a win, the election is 500 days

Sorry MR. KANYE WEST, I just don't believe Kunce has a real chance of winning

Waves don't happen a yr before the Election, we will be out of Covid, next yr, you don't have to believe me, just donate on Act blue 25.00, which I am doing now until Election day, a mnth to any candidate you chose along with tips will help wave insurance seats out

I donate blue dogs Ryan, Jackson, Kennedy, Bullock , Crist and yes even KUNCE

And donate to Nan and Smith, I will donate my tips to the other candidates

Act blue is a machine and has raised more money than R operation

All the pollsters saying Johnson is gonna win are wrong, Baldwin won by a landslide in 2018, WI is an D even state, IA and OH are R plus 4 states, WI isn't that far off the NPVI

This is a blog, and up until Election day anyone can predict anything



Here is my Prediction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forgot to add AK

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

In your World, no, in my world yes it's a blog, I can predict anything, if the Rs can predict AZ, NV and WI going R, I can predict a Filibuster Proof majority

Not one poll show NV going R  and NV has a female state legislature like MA and NH does that's why CCM and Rosen will win

NV, WI, NH and NH doesn't even have voter Suppression

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The bottom line evidently the polling industry has laid off it's workers, something is wrong we aren't getting polls in IA, OH, NC and all we got was a Chamber of Commerce poll in FL.

We need to see GE not primary polls in Red wall states, so far we have gotten 0 but AK

We haven't even gotten any NV polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My nutaps represents Solids but since his pal Icespear is no longer with us or uses a different user name he has gone Conservative on us and he makes R favored maps like Progressive Moderate

My map represents what 60/40 Senate is and we can get DC and PR Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forgot to add AK

lol. The Democrats aren’t winning Wisconsin, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

In your World, no, in my world yes it's a blog, I can predict anything, if the Rs can predict AZ, NV and WI going R, I can predict a Filibuster Proof majority

Not one poll show NV going R  and NV has a female state legislature like MA and NH does that's why CCM and Rosen will win

NV, WI, NH and NH doesn't even have voter Suppression

Demings doesn't win with a record like hers. In fact in 2017 when Hurricane Irma hit Florida, Demings voted against the Disaster Tax Relief and Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2017 that provided tax relief for the victims of Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Harvey. That will doom Demings' senate chances just like Ted Cruz's attack against Beto O'Rourke for his vote against that same bill partly helped Cruz win re-election.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll542.xml

https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ63/PLAW-115publ63.pdf

Also Herschel Walker about to announce a senate bid and Chris Sununu doing the same after NH's legislative session will put the Democrats on defense, which will force them to put more money on more battleground seats rather than OH, IA, FL, MO.

No the Dems will look at polling data and say that all their incumbents are safe and in their eternal electoral stupidity throw a bunch of money at FL, IA, and MO.

I agree 100%. The Democrats are going to light money on fire in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri.

Dems aren't gonna lose WI keep dreaming

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He lost the last two polls 48/44% How is is it trending R and Biden won it and Baldwin won by 10 pts the Rs lost the last two Election cycles and only won WI due to Hillary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sure

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats need to concentrate on protecting their incumbents and flipping PA. Everything more is a stretch.

What, Mandel, and Renacci lost to Brown in 2012(2018 and WI is vulnerable of course Rs want us to get the minimum seats so we can't expand our Majorities and get Statehood, you see what Sinema has done to us, it's not Manchin anymore it's Sinema

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LET ME BE CLEAR DS AND INDIES ON ACT BLUE ARE DONATING TO EVERY CANDIDATE NOT JUST INCUMBENTS AND FETTERMAN NELSON, RYAN, KUNCE, JACKSON, GROSS, BEASLEY, CUNNINGHAM, DEMINGS, GRAYSON AND NEWSOM, and House candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the Generic ballot is D plus nine and Rs aren't gonna sweep every race the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016

Sununu isnt a sure bet, the Generic ballot for NH is tied 43D/42R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats could lose as many as six Senate seats even during a Biden reelection (2020 map minus MI WI NV, ticket-splitting completely dead).

Your own logic sort of contradicts itself - how is Biden winning reelection while losing MI/WI/NV? I mean, obviously the math is possible, but feels very unlikely.

Lol the 304 EC map isn't enshired in the Constitution, We haven't had two Election map 2 cycles in a row, we can get some mixes races in midterms, 2018 Sununu, Hogan and Baker won while Sinema, Brown won, Jessica Gomez and Craig are fierce competetive in MI and OR while Mandel and Renacci already lost to Brown

Bernie Sanders said on MSNBC this morning, that he expects Demings, Gross, Beasley, Nelson and Ryan to win, Biden has a 52% approval and this is the first Midterm since 2002 that a Prez been above 50% The only question he has is Kunce and Hassan

Lol Whitmer and Hassan are down by six pts to Craig and one of the polls wasn't an internal

Also, WI Nelson iand Evers are getting extremely popular due to weed legalization

The Election isn't 180 days it's in 500 days


If the Election was Nov, 2021, yeah we would replicate the 304 map, but it's not enshrined in Constitution, but wma blue wave can develop in Nov 2022, that's why these are EARLY PREDICTIONS

Biden may very well expand the map in 2024 to NC, OH and IA