Rasmussen: Cantwell(D) above 50% against McGavick(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-07

Summary: D: 52%, R: 35%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the last poll he took had Cantwell ahead by 11 pts, it was SV that had it unusally close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was looking at the last Ramussen poll in July. But the last Survey USA poll had it a big lead. I think Cantwell survives, but barely. The republicans thought in 2000, she would lose and she held on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Rasmussen is correct, it is a 5-6 pt race, just like in TN, Ford is more like 5-6 pts behind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you take the average of Cantwell's polls and Corker's polls it equals 5-6 pts recently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SV 5 pts, Rasmussen 6 points, and SV 4 points. If you take all the polls except the last two, which can be thrown out due to the recent revelation of the story today it is 5-6 pts. It is true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was saying that Cantwell got a bounce from the dui revelation of the McGavick camp and with this revelation today it might stabalize that bounce that she got. That dui revelation was part of the reason why her poll numbers rising. Again, I didn't say it will derail her campaign, I said it may neutralize the dui charge of McGavick that she got her bounce from and the race might return back to a close race. And SV will come out with a poll at the end of this month, I think it will remain a close race. I think it will remain a close race which most of the pundits predict all the way through.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well so far SV have had it a 5-6 pt race, it will come out with a new poll at the end of this month and we will see what it comes out to. SV was close in the governors race, so I might lean more to the SV side of the equation.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby agrees that it is more like a 6 or 7 pt race and he did well in predicting Patty Murray's and John Kerry's victory there. Eventhough he didn't do well in the Governor's race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Zogby polls were conducted on Aug 28. And it had Cantwell up by 7 or 8 pts. No, this isn't a Zogby poll but I put stock in the Zogby polls better than Rasmussen who has been all over the map all year long with its irregular polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sorry meant Patty Murray.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You keep saying that and he blew the 2000 election. He nailed the Patty Murray race if I recall and he predicted the Kerry victory in 2004, so I believe his poll on Washington. Also Eraserhead this poll was taken before the news story broke before yesterday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the Patty Murray was called by Zogby as well.  I think that Cantwell is up between 6-9 pts. This race is going to go down to the wire.  And the DUI charge and the scandle by Cantwell might cancel each other out and we will have a very close race at the end worth watching.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not uneducated I just said that this race will come down to the wire all scandles aside. Scandles don't have much impact unless it is a big scandles both were minor and it will be a close race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because she is very pro-war and WA the war isn't that popular. In WA Bush approvals are negative. That's why I think it will be very close at the end. Also, there are independents on the ticket, and just like Ralph Nader syphened votes away from Kerry and Gore, they are going to take away some support from her, and it will end up being a close race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is about 15% undecided and eventhough they know Cantwell's position on the war they have yet to decide if she is fit for office. Those undecides will decide the outcome of the race one way or the other. So, far they haven't broke for either camp. They know who positions, but they haven't made up their minds yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the undecides will decide the outcome of the election and might give McGavick a chance who has a great story though, that's why it will get close at the end and race will be undecided until the ads and debates. No, the independents are not very liberal, but they might want someone who is a true independent like McGavick and not someone who votes along party lines, Democratic.  I am not saying that McGavick will win this but he  can make it dangerously close just like Webb is doing in VA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying that they may want people who moves Bush bills forward in the senate not stalling them. I am not saying that he will win, but he got a great life story and he can will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why did the country vote for Bush in 2004 and he was unpopular as well? I agree with you that Washington isn't like the rest of the south but having an incumbant in the WH does give advantages to the party that is challenging the outparty. I was refering to the spending bills on defense spending not social spending bills like tax cuts. The country wants continued support of defense build up and Cantwell might not fit that bill. She hasn't vote  for all of Bush defense authorization bills.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was talking about the defense bills that Cantwell cut. She didn't vote for all of them and the people want the defense bills passed all of them and McGavick will vote for them. As for Bush approvals, he was at 40% all summer long he was only at 50% only on election day. Again, I didn't say that Cantwell won't win, it will be close. And I do know what I am talking about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, Cantwell didn't vote for all the spending bills over the long hall and people want someone who funds the war on terror. And the approval ratings was at 40% until election day. If Kerry had so low approvals why did he win close to winning the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems who were obstructing defense authorization bills lost two elections based on the war on terror that is my evidence. It might be to some but not to everyone.  Kerry got defeated because Bush ran the ad over and over again, that he didn't fund the troops in Iraq, that's my proof.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well if you disagree with me on that there Dick Cheney came on MTP this morning and said that the biggest asset the Republicans have is that the republicans have kept people safe and they have won every election since 911. I think that may help out Republicans in close races. And you were not too long ago was argueiing with me that McGavick had a chance, why did you change.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You call me a moran or an idiot. I didn't say that Cantwell was going to lose, you misread my comments. I said that the war on terror may help some GOP senators in some of the close races. It may be this one it may be in NJ. But you shouldn't resort to name calling when you disagree with someone. Take a look at my map, do I have Cantwell losing no I don't. I said that there are enough undecides in this race to make it close at the end. Plse read my comments thouroughly before you respond.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To you it don't make since. I said that this is going to be a very close race with the undecides and that is what I was trying to say maybe I got some facts wrong but all the polls show that except the last two which was conducted before the revelation was revealed.