Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over and it has been for awhile, TX is the most pro gun state in the nation, McCaughey was right not to run in this Environment for Gov Abbott wins by 6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is still Abbott race to lose but Beto in the last poll was down by only six points and FL Crist is only down 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is losing by 6 and Crist is losing by 3 the same map as 2020 but you can compare 2022 to 2016 Hilary got 6 to 62M for Rs abd in a 303 map scenario it's 65/60M

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

You can't compare 2016 to 2022 at this point, especially given everything that has happened since then.

I agree.

2016 was a neutral/slightly R favorable year. 2022 will be a red tsunami.

Oh and the 2020 riots and rising crime rates have made the country more pro-gun compared to where it was in 2016. Reminder that such vile events also happened in 2016 (Pulse) which were due to the actions of a bunch of mentally ill lunatics.

I put the polls in the threads
Kemp and Schmidt may win but Lake in AZ is down 50/45 in Hobbs internal

CCM, Sisolak, Golden, Warnock, Hobbs, and Kelly are leading 50/45 it's a 303 map  at least in S we may lose the H due to TX/FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good after Beto beats Abbott whom he is six pts back she can run against Cruz in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's said they are forgoing TX and FL instead on AZ, and Ga as wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Ryan, Beasley, Crist, Demings and Beto to pull off the upsets but they can win with R state legislatures as a check

I call it now it's only 5 pts that within MOE 5/6 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley only leads 49/44 and Abbott leads only 45/40, this is a trend in the D's direction

Upsets  and Ryan leafs plus 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is extremely close like FL, NC 5 pts and Rs I'm this Environment are supposed to be 10 pts ahead, that tells you about the R party no he won't win by 10 can Biden lost TX by 6, I hope Beto wins

As users already knows I put wave Insurance on my map because we are gonna be scoreboard watching and you can't update your prediction on EDay and our donation and vote verifies the accuracy of our vote not a mock prediction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Will Abbott win by more than 2018?

That’s what I’m watching for. He’s def not replicating some of his margins in many TX suburbs and he’s likely to outperform himself in at least many parts of the RGV. How it all adds up is harder to say though.

There can be upsets everything isn't based on models didn't your models say D's were gonna net gain ME and NC and models said D's were gonna net gain H seats they were wrong, very wrong it's based on results not poll

Abbott is only up 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not out of the ordinary for D Govs to be elected with R state legislature, look at KY Andy Beshear was elected with 2/3rds R state legislature and we have Evers, Whitmer and Wolf with majority R state legislature, McMasters is clearly fav but we haven't even seen a SC Gov poll and Cunningham is fantastic, so it won't be that bad if Crist, Fried, or Beto are elected Gov and have R state legislature

Beto has been behind only 45/40 most polls MOE is 5 pts and Crist is tied with DeSantis a GOP state legislature serves as a check

It's a 303 blue wall map but every election is not the same

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is only up 45/40 Trump only won the state 52/46, if Abbott wins it will be by the same margin Trump wins 52/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3566598-soros-donates-1-million-to-orourkes-campaign-for-texas-governor/


It's not over Soros donates 1M to Beto lol it's not gonna be 13 Trump only beat Biden 52/46 and Beto is down 45/40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

He's not gonna do any better than Biden, Biden lost the state 52/46 and he is losing 45/40

It's the same 303 map as in 2018 we are competetive in FL, KS and we won AZ, OH, NV Sen

Beto lost to Cruz by 2 that yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Year Beto is gonna lose 52/46 just like Biden lost the state, I am crossing my fingers on FL, Trump llwon FL bye 3 but D's are gonna do way better than Biden especially CRIST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance it's a 45/40 lead for Abbott and Biden lost the state  52/46 it only flips if D's win the H but voters in MI, PA, WI, KY and KS have sent D Govs to the state capitol with R state legislature that's why Ryan is winning because of checks and balance and Fetterman and Barnes and Beasley Ds are checked by R state legislature

The maps are blank on EDay with no ratings and they said D's were gonna net gain seats in 2020 they were wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NYT: After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html?

Tightening doesn’t necessarily mean O’Rourke is in a winnable range yet. Abbott + 12 -> Abbott + 8 or so is notable but that’s still a large gap to close. This race is def closer than it was a few months ago though.

Lol, we Ds are optimistic the maps are blank on EDay Biden only lost by 6 in TX

Did you know Bevin was favored in 2019 and Beshear won in KY in an R plus 20 state so Beto can win in TX, look at the compiled map the user prediction had Bevin winning just like now R nut maps wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen anymore FL or TX polls and the primary is next mnth

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

Rs have donated TX since Bush W , with Rick Perry and Gregg Abbott and since Kennedy ASSASSINATION in Dallas they can't control mass shootings, we haven't had an Election yet, there can be upsets that's why Tim Ryan is winning, D's were supposed to gain seats last time we lost seats we won KY an R plus 20 state and TX is way less than KY Crist or Beto if we win the H can win, voters like in the states of KY and KS send D's to Gov and have R state legislature, don't be shocked if Beto or Crist or Ryan win and D's win the H

Abbott is polling the same as Bevin 45/40 in the polls and Bevin lost and users predicting Bevin to win on the compiled map and they were wrong then they are wrong now on an R nut map

Just because users predict an R nut map can be wrong just like they were when they predicted Bevin to win, I don't make R nut maps because what happens when your fav candidate wins and you predicted it going R wait till we have results before you DOOM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

Democracy Corp have D's far outpacing Biden 39 Percent Approvals do t be surprised if there are upsets as I told you guys before if polls were the end all be all we would not have to vote, having said that this only flips if D's win the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before there will be upsets on EDay the maps are blank, this only flips if D's win the H, that's why it's called wave insurance the 303 map solidifies the Senate and wave insurance solidifies the DH, but every election isn't the same we won KY Gov and R plus 20 state when Bevin was polling like Abbott 45/40 it's a longshot, we will win FL first

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also I want to give the Beto campaign some respect. Even though at the end of the day Abbott is prolly winning, he's campaigned seriously and actually gone to quite a few communities that generally are extremely lopsided towards Rs.

Yup, though he's not seen as strong as 2018 after his embarrassing WH bid in 2019/20. Maybe he should have run for senate in 2020 and then either win an upset or just quit running for office in the immediate future.

Lol there is Blk and Brown and Female vote did you know Beshear wasn't the fav in 2019 Bevin was polling like DeSANTIS and Abbott 45/40 and Beshear was losing like Evers was until provision ballots were added into the raw vote and military ballots aren't automatically R because there are 45 percent of females they still go R but not 90/10 65/35 R and Provisions ballot are 300K, 200K get counted and it goes 65/35 D just wait for EDay we have 90 days and don't keep saying 2020 was a friendly yr we won only 65/60M votes in 2012/2018 and won OH, MT and WVA Sen every EDay is different, we didn't win 80M especially in 2018 we can win red states, Rs don't own Red states but blue states are safe than ees because insurrection TRUMP

Beto and Crist have a better chance than DeJear and Nah Whaley because they Reynolds and DeWine are pragmatism, Abbott and DeSantis are Trump supporters

It's called wave insurance not automatic like 303 but not safe either

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are people concerned about this race if D's upset and win the H we will win Red states Bevin was polling 44/40 when he lost to Beshear

You never know what will happen now Stitt is vulnerable he is polling 42/34 it's a competitive race now plus 8, in 2018 we didn't win all these raves all at once Stitt was vulnerable too and it came All together at the end

Its called wave insurance but you never know what happens 9n EDay

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race along with OH or FL will only flip if D's win the H because Vance is doing so poorly even without an OH Gov poll Nan W is getting enthusiastic about winning an upset she says when I am Gov, OH Gov will flip surely before TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They already said on MTP that the HS Diploma rural vote is declining while College Grads urban vote are increasing so the mantra that we can't win red states because we won 80 M votes is false that's why GA Gov is a Tossup 47/47, because GA was a red state turned blue and so was AZ and KS and KY