Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't beating anyone unless Biden gets to 50 percent but we have 336 but FL is more likely to flip than TX and DeSANTIS is only up six


Fried is down by nine pts and Crist is down six Crist is more likely to beat DESANTIS than Fried

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried would be better than Crist. She could beat DeSantis, Crist can't.

Crist should go back to Congress.

He's not going to win.

Neither of them can beat DeSantis.

We still have 336 days til the Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won the state by 300K votes and TX by 600K votes that's probably where the race will end up plus R 3 for FL and plus R six for TX, it's a 3o4 map because IPSOS HAS BIDEN AT 48/48 AND BIDEN WON 50/45 WITH A 304 MAP

The question is GA and OH, and NC than FL can Ryan or Beasley win they're much stronger than Demings running with no incumbent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol DeSantis isn't winning by double digits Trump won it by 3 pts if it's a 304 map Abbott is winning by six and DeSantis by 3 these polls are underestimating Minority votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BrianElections/status/1470086281975582721

Would it really matter if Crist and Fried got more money? They don't know how to use it

Bloomberg poured in $100 Million into cringey TV ads, that didn't help a thing... if they used it for voter registration drives instead, maybe, but thinking that is a few standard deviations of IQ too much for Florida Democrats to realistically do.

In addition to President Bloomberg, Senators Jaime Harrison and Beto O'Rourke can confirm how important cash is.

Obviously this race is Safe Republican, and would still be with ten times as much for both Democratic candidates.

This race isn't Safe R it's six points it's called wave insurance after Labor aDay we will know if Biden Approvals will turn around, DeSantis came back from six pts down with a Mnth left Biden lost it by 3 pts and it's now six, why are you so onto the Rubio/DeSantis bandwagon and Abbott isn't up 15 Biden lost TX by Six

The polls are inflated for Rs right now due to Biden Approvals if these Approvals hold up of course it's an R wave..
It Leans R but Biden lost FL bye 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one said this is gonna flip but if we get a blue wave going with Beto boyish looks we can win either TX or FL along with OH or NC because Latinx and BLK voters and Female voters are swing voters not Evangelical


IPSOS Has Biden at 48%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Latinx

They're not winning with that messaging either so...

You never know what wave might develop at Labor Day 2022/ it wasn't a D plus 9 election until October 2018/ and Obama in 2008/12 was supposed to win 300 EC votes FL was the last state to flirt with McCain and Romney in 2008/12 this is the same Biden that was on the ballot in 2008/12 as VEEP


Biden only lost FL by 51/47 and DeSantis isn't winning by 10, neither is Abbott winning by 10/15 it was six pts in 2020 too 52/46 and Beto only lost TX by 2 in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's can win this race but Biden has to clear 50% like he was in Sep like Newsom was they were both 57%

All of our Red State wave insurance seats our D's are 6 pts back and in a blue wave that's not much difference especially since DeSantis was six behind Gullium and came back and Ryan can win since OH split it's votes in 2o18

Beto is six pts not 15 due to fact in a 304 map scenario Biden lost TX by six and lost FL by 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah he won't win, because of Nord Strem 2 Pipeline in the Deep South that Cruz wants changed and Biden won't visit the Border he hasn't and won't he is in the pocket of immigration activists

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1472266564212871172

If she’s the nominee, I can’t wait to see the margins in north Florida. Those are gonna be embarrassing and a new low even for her.

Underestimate Charlie Crist if you want it's not over it's 10 mnths til the Election and Biden polls are going up, and Crist is gonna be the Nominee not Fried

DeSantis does have play on his boyish good looks but the Election is 10 mnths away and right now Biden is at 45/50 once he get to 50% it's game over blue wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried isn't gonna win the nomination

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not gonna lie, I actually hope Nikki Fried gets the nomination (even though I don't think she will). It'll make both the debates and the race as a whole even more entertaining and fun to watch.

Honestly same, since DeSantis will beat either by double digits.

In a 3o4 map scenario DeSantis won bye 3 it's a 394 map since our H and Gov delegates represents the 3o4)234 blue ME rule blue wall Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016 with HILLARY and Abbott wins by six not 15

Any blue wave with Voting Rights can defeat DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly Fried might have a unique advantage in north Florida.

North Florida is the most southern part of the state, and as any southerner knows, we love anything fried.

D's aren't winning FL when Biden is tracking 45/50;like Trump is it's a 304 map scenario

Tracking polls are similarly to 2020 but Trump is swapped with Biden

DeSantis will beat whomever at least by 3 like Trump won the state bye and TX Abbott will win by at least six like Trump won the state bye

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have never had two duplicate maps two cycles in a row and the prediction is based on end results not what's going on now, FL, OH, NC are wave insurance Mason Dixon or MXDX polls are close to the election and we have to wait for those because it's a D Midterm not an R midterm

But, clearly Josh Mandel is a weak link

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance and would be our 27 the Gov seat after MD, MA, AZ and KS Anyways but Crist as former Gov is the one to beat him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 4/6 pts is a landslide then SISOLAK and CCM are totally out of it too, it's not DeSantis camelback from six pts down against Gillium in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist can win this😌😌😌

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called a recession which we had under Bush W that's why McCain and Romney lost and Obama got elected when Crist was in office but Biden isn't at 40 percent anymore and his polls are gradually rising because the same can be said about Biden unlike Trump whom had a 7.5 Unemployment rate as opposed to Biden whom had a 4.3 percent Unemployment rate


It's called wave insurance but I can dream and it's not over until Election night but we aren't gonna lose 50 seats and Rs aren't getting 35 Govs like the compiled map in days those are silly R hack maps and I am not one of those people

We can make our user Predictions until the Day of the Election anyway we want an it doesn't have to be accurate those R hack maps arent


I am from California we always predict Blue waves

You have even Solid making an R hackmap

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watching Crist and Fried campaign, I really don't see how this is going anywhere, tbh. Their entire campaign theme seems "DeathSantis is bad" and "I beat DeSantis" with no real message beyond that. For sure this is an uphill battle no matter what, but their messaging really sucks. Who advises them? Seriously?

Honestly, I feel like DeSantis was always going to be kind of hard to run against. His main selling point is that he kept Florida open while states like California and New York had to deal with onerous restrictions.

Running in favor of more restrictions is going to be an absolutely toxic position to take, especially given the widespread availability of the vaccine.

DeSantis is not an antivaxxer, and it's not his fault if people die because they were irresponsible and chose to not get vaccinated.

Since when is 4/6 pt lead a safe lead with 10 mnths left and that is what Crist and Demings are down bye, it's not Safe and you should not think so either..
.
SISOLAK and CCM are down 4)6 pts and with Biden improvement I'm polls from 40 percent with Reid bump we should win NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 doesn't realize the Election isn't until October and Biden won't be at 39/55 and not a single poll has Mark Kelly down

It's wave insurance but I am not gonna believe Biden is still at 39/55 unless IPSOS SAYS SO ON October 31st he is at 52)48 in IPSOS, that just came out if an incumbent reaches 50 percent he wins reelection we don't need FL but it's good we get thee knock out blow it's the first battleground state up next to NC

If Rs have there way we shouldn't run any wave insurance candidates but they can beat us in our blue wall Hogwash we have the right to run candidates in all 50 States

NV is Likely D but Laxalt has a 1/3 chance just like Demings does

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Border has been a sticking pt in Biden polls he is net positive but the Border in TX he is 30/65 and NV, AZ, TX and FL are Border states going to the right because Biden has stopped building the Wall


CO is the only border state due to alot of Muslims and Cali that still support Biden and NM

Immigrants on Fox News are seen on camera with drugs walking in the parts of border that has no 🧱🧱🧱

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is Crist running if he does not have any policies to run on?

Is he another Terry McAuliffe type retread?

Florida Dems should go with Fried, she is a fresh face.

Crist ran already in 2014 and could not beat Rick Scott of all people.

Davis, Sink, Crist, are all retreads

Lol he was leading DeSANTIS 53/47 when Biden had a 57 before the Debt Ceiling fight in the end of September

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

Lol TX isn't flipping with inept Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

You know full well the only race we're not contesting is IA, MO and TX Ras Smith dropped out and Beto and kunce can't win, DS ARE STILL CONTESTING OH, NC, FL ITS CALLED WAVE INSURANCE


I like Cranley and Tim Ryan for Sen/Gov

Crist will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

You know full well the only race we're not contesting is IA, MO and TX Ras Smith dropped out and Beto and kunce can't win, DS ARE STILL CONTESTING OH, NC, FL ITS CALLED WAVE INSURANCE


I like Cranley and Tim Ryan for Sen/Gov

Crist will win

Just because they’re contesting it doesn’t mean they’ll win

All we get is trash Biden 43 percent Approvals 10 mnths before an election no state by state numbers and IPSOS AND ZOGBY CONTRIDICT THOSE AND HAVE BIDEN AT 50 once Biden gets to 50 anything can happen, ITS STILL 10 MNTHS BEFORE AN ELECTION AND POLLS UNDERESTIMATE MINORITY AND FEMALE VOTES

I am not making anymore predictions based on Approvals not state by state numbers