I don't want to be too reactionary following the polling errors of 2020, but I am comfortable saying that I will never trust any polling consensus regarding federal elections in Wisconsin again. Polls indicated in Wisconsin Presidential and Senate elections in 2016 that the races were Likely D at worst and 2020 President in Wisconsin was bordering on Safe D according to almost all polls.
Johnson could be down by an average of 10 points the night before Election Day in 2022 and I still wouldn't be confident at all regarding his defeat.
Ron Johnson ran off Clinton email scandal in 2016 and Scott Walker was Gov, that's the difference