WI - D4P/MoveOn (D): Ron Johnson at -13 net favourability but less unpopular than Trump

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A bad poll, but better to have it than not, right? Just take it with a bucketful of salt.

The work done for this particular sponsor seems to be similarly hackish to their MO poll. However, the first set of questions asks for favourability numbers with no qualifiers and thus has much more value as the push questions are all afterwards.

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2021/1/dfp-moveon-wisconsin-johnson-polling.pdf

January 10-12
583 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Trump favourability: 40 favourable/59 unfavourable/1 don't know (-19)
Biden favourability: 50/48/2 (+3)
Ron Johnson favourability: 35/48/17 (-13)

[Xing]

Senator Unfavorable Opinion of Ron Johnson (D-WI) is inevitable!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't Lean R

[DaleCooper]

I don't want to be too reactionary following the polling errors of 2020, but I am comfortable saying that I will never trust any polling consensus regarding federal elections in Wisconsin again. Polls indicated in Wisconsin Presidential and Senate elections in 2016 that the races were Likely D at worst and 2020 President in Wisconsin was bordering on Safe D according to almost all polls.

Johnson could be down by an average of 10 points the night before Election Day in 2022 and I still wouldn't be confident at all regarding his defeat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't want to be too reactionary following the polling errors of 2020, but I am comfortable saying that I will never trust any polling consensus regarding federal elections in Wisconsin again. Polls indicated in Wisconsin Presidential and Senate elections in 2016 that the races were Likely D at worst and 2020 President in Wisconsin was bordering on Safe D according to almost all polls.

Johnson could be down by an average of 10 points the night before Election Day in 2022 and I still wouldn't be confident at all regarding his defeat.

Ron Johnson ran off Clinton email scandal in 2016 and Scott Walker was Gov, that's the difference

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't want to be too reactionary following the polling errors of 2020, but I am comfortable saying that I will never trust any polling consensus regarding federal elections in Wisconsin again. Polls indicated in Wisconsin Presidential and Senate elections in 2016 that the races were Likely D at worst and 2020 President in Wisconsin was bordering on Safe D according to almost all polls.

Johnson could be down by an average of 10 points the night before Election Day in 2022 and I still wouldn't be confident at all regarding his defeat.

Marquette wasn't too far off in terms of margin, although they overestimated the Libertarians.