OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know the March poll had Vance 39/37 that isnt good the Rs need to  be leading by 10 in a midterm. Just like DeSanris is leading by only 3, disaster, Rs were leaving by double digits in 2010/2014 D's during Red wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately,. For Ryan this race is Safe R after Biden is at 44%, like all the others wave insurance seats including NC and FL


Crist up 5347 and Fried yeah right


WI is the tipping pt and always have been as well as PA

But, if Covid is over in 2024/ Brown had a much stronger chance than Ryan

Nan Whaley is a disaster of a nominee for Gov and will lose in a landslide

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The hype over Beasley, From no, Demings and Ryan was way overblown, D's were only gonna win these seats had Ds got 1700 checks and shots in arms and Covid Eradicated


Crist losing to DeSantis verifies that the 304 blue wall is alive and well not 413 or 375 map due to fact Biden won the 304 blue wall but lost FL lost FL by three

DeSantis was never gonna lose with Rubio, but he did almost lose with Scott


We can all stop dreaming of a massive wave, it's not happening


Crist up 53/37 on DeSantis is laughable now with that poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This can be Ds Pickup opportunity can make up for a loss in GA should Warnock loses in a Runoff, Tim Ryan shouldn't be underestimated

But Demings and Beasley chances look bleak, Rubio and DeSantis got a bump from Surfside and Beasley said she endorsed Filibuster

If Jeff Jackson wins the nomination, it's a different story in NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump 2016 got more votes than Biden 2020.

Democrats have absolutely zero shot here, which sucks since Tim Ryan is great. Josh Mandel is going to be an awful Senator.

What, Sherrod Brown flipped the state in 2018/ against Renacci after Trump won in 2016/ Tim Ryan is tied in a poll

I will continue to donate and when I get my user Predictions I will put OH in the D column as well as NC and FL

If Beshear won in R KY and Laura Kelly won in0R KS we have a shot in zoH when Brown after Trump won OH won the state in 2016

That's your Prediction, not mine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People should stop saying OH is unwinnable, OH sn't IA, IA gas 3% Afro Americans and Grassley isn't winning by 20/10pts and the state split it votes between M DeWine and Brown in 2018/ and Ryan is tied and DeWine is winning by 10 again

State has 12% Afro American

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden Approvals are the same and his agenda which is blocked by Rs don't go anywhere, of course Mandel or Vance will win by 15, but we have 14 mnths and D's will get his agenda passed thru Reconciliation if they Have to

Govt cannot default, if it does all the payments that Govt missed including checks for Govt shutdown have to be paid back after Govt shutdown anyways like 300 child tax credits, SSA payments and Govt checks, the Govt don't want to get into paying back payments more than a month anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandel is 4 pts ahead of Tim Ryan but Ryan is our 53rd seat, and Barnes, Ryan and Fetterman already endorsed DC Statehood not Beasley or Jackson and Demings and Grayson did endorse DC Statehood too

50 is PA, 51 is WI, 52 GA runoff, 53 OH, 54 NC and 55 is FL

56(57 are IA and MO Kunce has a better chance than Fink

Don't underestimate Josh Mandel or Tim Ryan but I have donated to ryan

Order of seats falling

Negative seats

48 AZ Kelly Leans D
49 NH Hassan Leans D
50 PA Fetterman Leans D
51 WI Mandela Barnes Leans D
Probably Lose the H
52 GA Warnock Runoff Tossup
53 OH open seat Tossup
DC STATEHOOD Ryan, Barnes and Fetterman have endorsed it bypass, probably win H Blue dogs Tester, Manchin, Sinema
54 NC open seat Tossup.
55 FL open st Tossup
56 IA Grassley Safe R
57 MO open st Safe R but can be competetive, the GOP party has just DIED IF THEY LOSE IA AND MO

Biden Approvals f his Agenda is Passed won't be at 45, percent on Election night if it stands now Biden would narrowly lose the H and we would pick up WI and Pa and lose GA in a Runoff

Nate Silver blue wall 304

Biden is at 50(48 LV and 53(47 RV exactly where he was on Election night

Party performance lands exactly where Prez performance and Biden is at 50(48 enough for Rs to win H and D's win S

But if Biden can achieve Success and Land at 53(47 where his RV he can win H and 55 seats in Senate

S019 thinks Johnson and Sununu will win but DeSantis and Rubio ha, that's a good one

DeSantis and Rubio are way more popular than Ron Johnson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol OH isn't gonna vote to Left of WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 38% in NC but OH is a wave insurance state in case we lose GA and so is FL, Beasley hurt herself badly when she backed the Filibuster

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/democratic-rep-tim-ryan-plan-120001263.html

He is 4 pts down to Josh Mandel but he is from Youngstown and if we want Brown to win in 2024/ Ryan better win

This is MT Sen race in 2020 but with one twist Josh Mandel isn't Daines whom is Bipartisan he already lost to Sherrod Brown in 2012, this is D's 53rd seat after GA runoff

No, Sununu or Laxalt won't win and Ryan will win it's gonna follow like Nate Silver says the blue Wall

I have already donated to Ryan

If Jackson instead of Beasley gets nominated, Beasley tripped all over herself on Filibuster, that will be competetive too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he endorsed Brown he defeated Josh Mandel in 2012 he is another retread, this race isn't Safe R, like Rs want it to be the Gov race is safe R with Man Whaley the Rs want it to be so that they dont want Ds to get 53 seats plus H fir DC Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Typical reaction bye an R, Biden just said that he will eliminate the Filibuster on VR Reform after his spending package passed and you will hear alot from Kunce, Ryan and Demings

Rs are gonna lose their advantage in gerrymandering if VR passes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a very high profile race and there isn't much polling done on this race and they say as internals in OH, NC and FL aren't very good, it's Lean R anyways, Brown has endorsed Whaley and Ryan but in a Neutral Environment it isn't gonna do much good

But, D's best chance are in MO with Sifton and Tim Ryan not Beasley and Demings, they remind voters if Harris whom can't control the Border

Harris is a drag on IA, she did very poorly in IA in the primary and cost Biden IA in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race Tilts R bit along with Blue Collar Scott Sifton and Tim Ryan is more likely to win than Afro American Socialist and Nan E has a better chance than Crist, Brown knows what he is doing by endorsement of Whaley and Ryan😎😎😎

MO and OH are Show me states and Bellwether too like PA and NM and have significant Afri Americans

Demings have to deal with Rubio

NH is the pivot race too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is in the wrong board and you are being presumptuous, Tim Ryan will get alot of Blk support on Election day the last poll had Ryan tied with Vance and Down 4 and on his website, he is tied 38 with Generic R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Idk why but my gut feeling is that Vance is gonna end up winning by a pretty wide margin. I think him and Mandel are both clearly fakers but Vance has the more convincing shtick at the end of the day.

The last poll had Mandel only up by 4 DONT COUNT CHOCKENS, , DEwine is gonna win bye 10 not Mandel

Don't count chickens the very  best case scenario is Dems winning 54/46 only if Jackson runs against KcCrory along with Ryan not Beasley or Demings whom remind voter of Kamala Harris.

Don't count chickens 🐔🐔🐔 before they hatch a yr before an election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, I am just waiting for Mandel to attack Vance for having a brown wife.

High-risk, low reward.

First, consider that a lot of the groyper types are more ambivalent about this kind of interracial marriage than any other. The thought process goes: Asian woman -> closer to "trad" culture -> less feminism.

Secondly, if hardcore mudslinging like that doesn't backfire, it proves all kinds of dogwhistles can work. Then Vance can just respond with blatant antisemitism, which probably has more staying power.

Also, Mandel is already in the driver’s seat.  He doesn’t gain anything from making such an attack.

Mandel isn't in the Driver's seat he is tied to leading by 4 pts against Ryan and if  BBB Iden Approvals get anywhere ne as r 50% Mandel is done, we won't know until Aug 2022 what Biden Approvals are after 2 bills and Debt Ceiling are raised

Do many people don't want to make bold Predictions for 2022/ but Mandel is in the driver's seat for the primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1466512403269521409

It sucks that Tim Ryan's gonna lose by like 8+ points, he's really great.

We haven't seen one poll, and Bidens Approvaks won't be this low come Nov 22 it's called wave insurance and along with Beasley stand a better chance than Demings or Beto whom have challenges due to border issue.

Cook has this Tilt R along with FL and NC a Tossup


Stop thinking polls this low are gonna last forever, Biden isn't that far from 50/45 he's at 46/51

If the Election were held today he would lose but it's not, Biden is underwater with 18/29 but they vote at the last minute, Newsom was underwater too with them, ITS CALLED RALLY AROUND THE FLAG


Nan W will lose by 8 pts last poll had Mandel and Vance tied on his website at 38

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1466512403269521409

It sucks that Tim Ryan's gonna lose by like 8+ points, he's really great.

What sucks even more is that Mandel, who's basically just a right-wing Twitter troll at this point, is going to win easily.

Stop the naysay Snowlabrador it's Dec 31 not Oct 22, Biden Approvals are on the incline not decline D's chances will improve
.
There hasn't been 1ppll showing Mandel up 8 pts last poll had him up 4 but DeWine is up 8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance and Ds are conceding OH, FL and NC, he isn't cutoff by Act blue but it's a 304 map and AZ, and GA are more important to salvage than OH, NC and FL unless Biden polls comeback this is R

Kelly and Warnock are gonna have tough races, do you guys see that NV poll, if NV is Tilt R, OH is safe R and Cook and Sabato still have it in R column

Trump is putting all his eggs on AZ with Brnovich and Kelly is only up 1 but I doubt that if CCM is 3 behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It blows my mind that this unhinged lunatic will be a United States Senator in the not-too-distant future.

Lol it's ,10 mnths til the Election we have a chance in OH, FL and N
What did James Carville say about GA, there were Doomers like MT Treasure whom said weren't gonna win GA, he incorrectly picked Perdue and Loeffler

We had a 1/3 chance in GA before the Runoffs and we were underdogs I am still donating to Tim Ryan and Karl Rove and Mcconnell both said Mandel and Ryan is top race

As Progressive Moderate said we have a 1/3 chance in OH , NC and FL just like MT Treasurer believes Johnson and Oz have a chance and it's a 1/3 chance for Rs against Barnes and Fetterman and Fetterman is leading against Oz 44/42 percent and Tom Nelson lead 48/44 against Johnson and it was tied in a Clarity poll, lol Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll

I love how MT Treasurer gives his analyst about how D GA is and he said Perdue and Loeffler we're gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Karl Rove and Mcconnell listed  OH as a top race we can very well have SPL VOTING

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Safe R now along with NC and FL, Ryan may run for Prez though in the Future that's his future now, he wanted to be Prez I don't see him taking a Cabinet post but who knows

I would support him Harris isn't the future Prez anymore it's Buttigieg or Eric Adams or who knows Ryan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I strike my previous statement I think JD Vance and Mandel are the weakest and hope we win PA, WI and OH Senate races and NC