PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

Of course but they get polls Right, close to the Election they predicted Warnock to lose in the regular election and had Trump leading by 1 in MI and WI, because unemployment was going down to 7.5 percent abd if unemployment was at 7 percent instead of 9 Trump would have won



Just like you and Millineal moderate and progressive moderate predicted GA wrong and you said Peters was gonna lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

Lol no he's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna to win the primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna win the primary and GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/blake_allen13/status/1488192770653237254?s=21

Press X for doubt, especially that Kenyatta number seems suspicious? We need at least validation from other polls.

However, if Fetterman is only barely up in an internal, it seems like he lost a great deal of momentum in recent weeks. I wonder whether some Democratic primary voters prefer Lamb because they think he's more electable, similar to chosing Biden during the 2020 primaries.

Montgomery County is gonna be split between Lamb and Kenyatta, allowing Fetterman to win Pittsburgh he is the Favorite, some people look at polls too much

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna win, the anti Fetterman candidates l needs to drop out and that is Kenyatta, we have Barnes and Cheri Beasley whom are gonna win, Rs can't smear Beasley as ultra liberal she is a judgeo

It's a whole new ballgame in NC with our new SCOTUS PICK it was Lean R, I rate it as Lean D now but Cook rates it as Tossup as well as WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Connor Lamb doesn't sux he is only 3 pts behind Fetterman he or Fetterman are gonna be the Nominee, just as I say with OH, NC, FL to my R colleges it's not over till Election night anything can happen just like no one thought that Hillary was going to lose WI, PA, and MI and Obama in 2008/12 was not supposed to sweep OH, FL NC and Biden was on the ballot then

We didn't win, in 2020 wave insurance seats because Trump was the incumbent, Biden is the INCUMBENT now and Civiq Approval are HOGWASH, as Pittsburgh Steel already said, with 3.9 percent unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Kenyatta isn't gonna win, Fetterman has this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If this was a Prez yr where we can risk Kenyatta with higher turnout then it could of been the Nominee, it's risky to nominate Kenyatta, bit not in WI Barnes has a higher profile Obama endorsed Barnes for Lt governor and Obama endorsed Ossoff, Warnock and Abrams where is Obama endorsement of Kenyatta

I am not sure about the Lamb numbers I think it's close between Fetterman and Lamb, and Lamb wins if Kenyatta dropped out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman will get Blk Support with Josh Shapiro he was leading Oz 44/42 and he isn't Sinema he is against the Filibuster it won't matter because Tim Ryan supports ending the Filibuster and that race since Gibbons will be nominated isn't over in OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna win anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D with Fetterman anyways with Josh Shapiro on the ballot, Rs think that just because the Environment the state is gonna split it's votes between Senate and Gov, that is silly and Barnes on every issue has the same exact belief as Cory Booker and Raphael Warnock and Johnson is an Insurrectionists, the Rs want to believe that too is Safe R, silliness

Both Toomey and Johnson won with only 20o K votes WI and PA are Lean Takeovers Fetterman was leading 44)42 and Barnes was tied 47)47

How is winning by 20o K votes not 2M like Grassley safe R

If Toomey thought the seat was safe R he would have run but Bloomberg spent millions on his race with McGinty because Toomey support gun control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With OZ not being the frontrunner, it's safe to say Fetterman is gonna win, the other RS can't get D votes

Cook and Sabato need to color PA as a D Pickup, I would rate WI as a D Pickup but since it's an inc they're not gonna do that until October


Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer are gonna win Barnes is fav due to Evers having a 51 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

The Polk on this race had it 44/42 Fetterman Oz is not all that strong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OZ is the same as Tim Ryan whom is narrowly behind in OH they both won't overcome the partisan nature of their state Oz will lose 50/46 the only poll we had was 44)42 Fetterman over OZ and Ryan down 50/46 to Josh MANDEL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Lol  Fetterman was up 44/42 on Ox you are a DOOMER, we are gonna win WI, PA, and MI and NV and CO and AZ, due to what climate change brought in by global warming due to high Has prices

Fetterman isn't losing with Shapiro and Evers has a 51 PERCENT APPROVAL in the Marquette Law School poll Barnes will win, it's a 3043 map anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Boo hoo. It's either us or McCormick/Oz.

We're tired of out-of-touch politicians deciding who the best nominee is. We're especially tired of voting for Democrats that campaign like Democrats, grift and leech off our ideas, and vote like Republicans. We're also tired of the increasingly sportsified approach Democrats have taken to elections. Cool, you won an election. What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

This is an unhealthy attitude to have. It is Democratic voters who have the same good intentions as you that decide who the nominee is.

There is a reason why Snowlabrador isn't just a DOOMER he thinks Rs will win he has a red avatar like Progressive Moderate or Millennial Moderate we don't know if they are the same user but it's clear they interact with each Other Millineal Moderate has a KA red avatar and says that Rs are gonna sweep the blue wall, but Progressive Moderate is more measured


We all know each other comments by now and Millineal Moderate and Snowlabrador have red Ma avatars and they may or may not be same user but interact with the same person on the forum Progressive Moderate

It's a 303/235 map you know why with D GOTV EFFORT BIDEN 45 APPROVALS WONT BE THAT ON EDAY ITS GONNA BE 50/47

45 is very close to 50 forget 39 percent number, Obama had 39 percent in QU polls in 2010 due to not 4 percent unemployment it was 11 percent  unemployment it's a University poll it it predicted Biden to win OH on EDay and that was wrong OH PREDICTIVE said AZ goes D OH R, OH lost it's BELLWETHER STATUS anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Continues to blow my mind how Fetterman was far and away the front runner and he managed to squander it by refusing to do the most basic things that come with running for office. Debates, networking, going to Philly to meet with the voting base that you need more than anything else…it’s a shame. I’ve become more and more content (and even comfortable) with the idea of voting for Lamb in the general, but I do have concerns about how he will pivot rhetorically. I would hope he could stick to his message about unions and filibuster reform and voting rights (while embracing legal weed) but I fear he will revert back to the moderate talking points that got him elected to Congress in the first place.

In any case, I may just vote for Kenyatta in the primary even if he has no chance at this point.

Morgan Harper has zero chamce, but D's aren't gonna win OH, unless a Mason Dixon, University of Cincinnati or Columbus Dispatch poll shows D's leading, you guys have Bob Casey Jr a pro life D's how can you call Fetterman out, Kenyatta had a chance to run for Gov, he waited and ran for Senate when no one was in the race for Gov, it was always Fetterman or Lamb because of Bob Casey Jr, he still could of ran for Gov even if Shapiro was the Fav

The reason why Kenyatta isn't the National fav unlike Warnock or Barnes he is LGBT and D's although the support gay issues don't want to support Keynetta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing that users should remember 15 Latino/15 Blk/20 Female vote make D VOTE  Fetterman is gonna get the lion share of the Minority vote

Alot of users forget the minority vote

They are now saying Melanie Trump is getting all in for OZ this isn't gonna be an easy race nor is WI, we just have to sure up our Govs the Senate races in OH, NC and WI can go either way but PA ITS CAN go D BIDEN IS FROM PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

He's Gay, that's why the D's don't really around him, Obama endorsed Warnock and Barnes when Barnes wsmas Lt Gov, thats why and BLK LGBT don't have the same power as white LGBT because why Hollywood don't support Blk gay politicians but Whites like Clay Aiken whom Hollywood donate money to

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are very likely to reelect Warnock and Barnes will be sitting in tye Senate anyways, Keynetta is not as popular as Barnes and Warnock

Rs don't realize that Barnes was endorsed by Obama for Lt Gov if you go on Facebook, Obama is right there endorsing Barnes and of course Obama endorsed Warnock and Abrams


RS just look at Johnson and think Solid Red State but Evers in Marquette law school poll has it Evers 51 percent Approvals, why because Johnson praised insurrection

Bur, no one has stood behind Keynetta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No wonder why they're not releasing polls it's a tight race in PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see a whole bunch of state by state polls there are conflicting polls , the best way to do it is release all of them but they're not doing it, why is Fetterman 3 pts behind McCormick and 9 pts ahead of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman appeals to working class like Casey Jr does that's why Lamb is losing Fetterman won Pittsburgh as LT Gov onna crowded primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing to note in all these R trending polls it's not 2010 ANYMORE we have plenty of voters to vote for D's in 2010)14 we had a shortage of voters that's why it was 33)23 M and since 2016 it's been 65/62 M, Rs aren't assured of anything yet