PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are gonna get very tight around the 304 blue wall but it's best for D's to rally around Tim Ryan, Fetterman, Barnes, CCM, Kelly, Hassan, Warnock and Jackson

Cut our losses FL and Beasley are done for DeSabtis is too strong and Beasley hurt herself over Filibuster, the break Jackson needed.
FL isn't gonna flip no ways, it's home base to TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

St is likely D with Fetterman the only chance that Rs have is if Kenyatta got the Nomination he is a Socialist not Lamb or Fetterman, but I would endorse him if he got it because he is a male like Obama not a female like Beasly or Demings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is the Democratic version of anything. He’s just John Fetterman.

What

He is definitely blue Collar just like Bob Casey Jr, and so is Josh Shapiro, and Mandela Barnes or Tom Nelson are definitely blue collar

Those are Lean D TO, despite what Rs think, it's most likely a 51 or 52 D Senate depends on GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/abuse-allegations-against-sean-parnell-010502103.html


Jon Fetterman is gonna be the next Senator of PA and so is Mandela Barnes, Barnes is no more Socialistic than Warnock or Cory Booker that's already in Senate

Fetterman was up nine pts and Rs aren't defeating Kelly, Brnovich was down 43/39 and he is no way linked to Cindy McCain whom was best buds with Ducey and got him out of race with Kelly


Rs have flawed candidates in OH and NC SEN WE HAVENT SEEN POLLS ON, THEY ARE FAVS due to 304 blue Wall, BUT NOT SLAM DUNK LIKE RUBIO OR GRIENTANS

Kelly is adourn by the McCains and Ducey not Brnovich

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Neutral 304 Environment but Biden has until Aug 22 to pull his Approvals up but for now it's a Neutral Environment

It's been a Neutral Environment since Election 2020 but we have strong candidates for OH, NC, Cunningham barely lost on sex scandal and Mandel is a flawed candidate

It's gonna be in a blue wave 54/46 Sen Rubio isn't losing and Fink is down 18 pts

D's on act blue are not infersizing but Beasley, and Tim Ryan, Fetterman and Barnes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jon Fetterman 8snt losing but Kenetta will

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup--->Tilt R. (Unless they actually nominate Dr. Oz. That might send it all the way to Lean/Likely D.)

The only poll we had on this race was Fetterman plus nine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need polls from non LATINO stayed they've stopped polling non LATINO states

Fetterman probably wins but we can't he sure

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

B-tier candidate. As long as he runs a competent campaign the seat is his.

Do you honestly believe with Josh Shapiro running that Fetterman is gonna lose, Shapiro raising so much money in PA
No one watches Dr OZ he isn't Dr Phil caliber candidate

Rs are in denial about Fetterman and Shapiro the type of money they raised and Dr OZ  doesn't appeal to females like Dr Phil plse the seat is his there's no polling

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Oz campaigns as a Trumpist America First candidate like Walker, I will support him. Not if he's a weak neocon McConnell cuck who just wants tax cuts.

.
Lol he's not Dr Phil, he will Lose with Shapiro running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PascrellforNJ/status/1465771237574156289?t=Y3us-CIchsvqS5UCx...

New Jersey's Progressive Fighter. Honestly, I think New Jersey Democrats should shut up.

Lol Fetterman has Josh Shapiro running and both of them have raised lots of money it's a Lean D TO along with WI, PA, EI and MI are purple states they are red states


He isnt Dr Phil, I never watched his shoe and never will, but watch Dr Phil they're connected with Oprah  on OWN NETWORK but Oprah is a D and doesn't support his R candidacy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver has Fetterman and Shapiro winning 54/46 on You Tube and he has WI flipping too so I don't buy this Dr OZ, he shouldn't be Underestimated though

I know those on You tube are pretend matchups but Nate Silver owns politics and he knows

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://doctoroz.com/issues/

Oz is gonna have a difficult time winning with Josh Shapiro on the ballot it Tilts D

 A Neutral Environment PA by Cook leans D 4 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz isn't just running against Fetterman he also has the Juggernaut Josh Shapiro' on the ballot it's a tossup race but PA, WI and MI are purple states not red states

That's why Nate Silver gives the slightest of edges to Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RS praised Rittenhouse, so the Right can't talk about Fetterman, Sir Woodbury was putting up Rittenhouse not guilty verdicts all over USG this won't matter that much


Old School said Rittenhouse verdict was right

Obviously, Biden Approvals will go up, if he stays the same we will have a red wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last poll he ad it 42/42 it's still a tall order with OZ due to Josh Shapiro the only way Rs are assured this seat if Oprah Winfrey endorsed OZ, she is done with politics and she is a D disgusted at the way Rs treated Hillary

Obviously, the jogger story hurts Fetterman but Sir Woodbury and Old School were writing Rittenhouse Not guilty threads on USG
 Rs don't have clean hands on cases either

Blks uses the Public Defense system for wrongly being lynched for bring accused of whistle at white females, they were sent to Chain Gangs before 1963 when Public Defender's law was fully enforced Rittenhouse used the Public Defender's law to scapegoat a murder

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We needs polls from non Latino states OH, WI, NC and PA, so far they poll AZ, TX and FL DeSantis and Rubio aren't losing anyways and Abbott neither but they poll them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sucks for John Fetterman that his legacy will be "the guy who lost to Dr. Oz"

Let's wait til a poll

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pollsters-warning-democrats-problem-125336973.html


A D pollster don't take polls as rosy for D's anymore we have a problem


Biden is at 45/51 percent and CCM is losing


I am not Donating to Ds anymore I am paying for tests at school and they refuse to give another stimulus check, they are being outraised by Rs, but I jumped on you too  quickly on Ryan, he is gonna lose, Vance is gonna be the next Senator OH

Manchin and Sinema are silly not to pass VR if we lose in 22, they both lose in 24 she only beat Martha McSally

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

But the reason why conservative base voters took to Trump, Larry Elder, Tim Scott, John James etc. was because they had one of 2 qualities: 1) they were actual supporters of staunch conservatives values, or 2) promised to appoint GOP judges/policies (in the case of Trump).

I watched the video and Oz doesn't seem to be portraying himself as a true-blue conservative Trump guy: his video seems far more suited for a general election message than a primary. And he's a wild card: it's unclear exactly what he believes in (which goes both ways). There are going to be people running against him in the primary, all to his right.

If Oz is the only moderate in the GOP primary, I'd say he's likelier to win. Most overrate the extremism of GOP primary voters, they typically choose the moderate option over the others, except in deep-red congressional districts. For every crazy that actually gets nominated, there's many generic Rs.

McCain was nominated in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016. Each of them was the least stringently conservative major candidate in their primaries. If Oz runs as a moderate with Trump's endorsement, he'll be able to run a general election campaign from the beginning.

Oz isn't just running against Fetterman he is running against Shapiro whom is hugely popular that s why Casey and Wolf won they were a tag  team in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is leading 44/20/15 Fetterman is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news!

Very glad to see our lovely establishment voters coalescing around a real Democrat. Don't let Lambchin's siren song fool you!

Lol Fetterman leads 44/20)15 Fetterman is still the Fav

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've heard people say that the crucial Philadelphia suburbs, where most white suburban women live, would rather elect Oz than Fetterman, because Fetterman looks "too dirty, WWC, scary"

Oz will probably flip places like MontCo and Delaware Counties...

Lol Fetterman won the Lt  Gov Primary by winning Pittsburgh with Josh Shapiro he will win and if Hogan enters in MD he will be defeat too with Tom Perez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Lamb or Fetterman will beat Oz it's a 304/234 ME 2 rule map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is still favored in this race were gonna win MI, PA and WI, CO, NV, AZ, GA and NH Govs and Senate races ANYWAYS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tfw everyone is fighting over Fetterman vs Lamb and you just want Malcolm Kenyatta to win

This is unironically how Kenyatta will win the primary

Lol Fetterman was leading 44/20 because all the anti Fetterman candidates are splitting up Montgomery County and he wins with Pittsburgh