IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we won in 2008/12 on a PVI 5.0 based on Joe the Plumber IA and OH

The saving grace for Trump on Election day was there wasnt an Insurrectionists, Rs just blocked the Commission, we haven't had a natl Election post Insurrectionists and the Primary fight is gonna Divide the Rs in OH and cause Whaley to win the D's aren't gonna win SD and MO, DeSantis and Abbott will win, in a landslide it won't be a shutout as we didn't shut Rs out in 2008(/12 or 18

But.....if Quinton Lucas gets in he will be competetive, I will donate to him if he runs in MO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Through a very reliable source and friend of mine who’s involved in several IAGOP campaigns at the state and local level, I have obtained access to Chuck Grassley's internal polling. Please do NOT share this with anyone, this is confidential.

Senate:

Finkenauer (D) 52
Grassley (R, inc.) 36

Finkenauer (D) 54
Hinson (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 53
Feenstra (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 52
Reynolds (R) 38

Sand (D) 49
Grassley (R, inc.) 41

Axne (D) 48
Grassley (R, inc.) 42

Greenfield (D) 45
Grassley (R, inc.) 43


Governor:

D primary:

Mauhlbauer 48
Sand 40

GE:

Mauhlbauer (D) 50
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41

Sand (D) 49
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41


In the House races, Feenstra is ahead in IA-04 (it’s a lot closer than expected, though, and he is trailing in some counties), Mariannette Miller-Meeks is down by double digits in IA-2 (her favorability numbers are disastrous and have taken even more of a hit after Rita Hart's challenge in the House), Hinson is trailing a generic D by a high single-digit margin in IA-1 (this is the district where Finkenauer's presence at & Trump's absence from the top of the ticket are having the most detrimental effect on R prospects), and Axne is in no danger whatsoever in IA-3, leading by a wider margin than Feenstra (the extent to which D trends in the Des Moines metro have accelerated under Biden is impossible to overstate; that part of the state is essentially going the way of Metro Atlanta).

My friend also says that it’s an open secret in IAGOP circles that Feenstra is pretty overrated by national punditry/out-of-state observers and that he’s known to be a lackadaisical campaigner who’s in serious danger of blowing a winnable race for the party, which is why there’s been pressure on him to step down.

I am so happy that MT Treasurer sees the light and Obstructing Commission is not in the best interest of the party

We can win IA, OH and NC the only state I am not sure about is FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

. Sen mao

Dem map as of today




It's gonna stay this way pretty much thru Summer 2022 or until there is a 🌊🌊🌊 wave D plus 2.5 Election
Gov map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She won't win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurence we have Maulberg already and Smith, so if she doesn't run at least the Gov race will be competetive, I will donate to Smith, we need that IA2 seat to build on House Majority
We don't need IA Senate, OH, NC, FL and AK are gonna be close AK has UBI benefits and Murkowski voted against the 2T stimulus after she helped AK get UBI benefits off the oil revenues

Gross can win this time since he isn't running against Sullivan he is running against two females Kelly and Murkowski

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

. Sen mao

Dem map as of today




It's gonna stay this way pretty much thru Summer 2022 or until there is a 🌊🌊🌊 wave D plus 2.5 Election
Gov map

Safe R like always, Biden Approvals are 52/48%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley isn't guarenteed anything, we won IA before and can win it again, Users think OH, IA, NC and FL are AL and TN we won IA with Chet Culver in 2008/2012 and won 3 Congressional races in 2018


MI, WI, PA, VA,GA, CO, NH, VA and NV are D based battlegrounds
OH, IA, NC, FL and TX are R based battlegrounds but can change party hands at anytime

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Will Democrats win a Senate election in Iowa? Eventually, yes. But with or without Grassley, it's not happening in 2022.

You Believe that, Cause I don't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that we are gonna win IA or not, but everyone thinks it's the 304 freiwall gonna live in eternity, no two Election cycles have we had duplicate maps and IA isn't AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't bet on the Blue Wave Flukes ever gaining prominent careers back (unfortunately), The Fink no exception.

Likely GOP

me

Lol a blue wave doesn't happen til 2022/ not 2021, well have to wait til we see the polls, so far there are none

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm feeling Grassley 56.5, Fink 41.5 if Grassley runs again, Generic R 52.5, Fink 45.5 if not.

Yeah and a poll just released and told you this, NO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm feeling Grassley 56.5, Fink 41.5 if Grassley runs again, Generic R 52.5, Fink 45.5 if not.

Yeah and a poll just released and told you this, NO

I tried confirmation biasing my way into deluded optimism last fall OC, it didn't end well. Iowa's a red state that we're going to lose barring a massive ****-up on the republican's part.

We're not gonna sweep every race, the only swing state that looks bad for D's is FL with that poll showing Rubio and DeSantis up 20,  OH, MO Jay Nixon IA, AK, NC in a blue tsunami can turn except for OH Gov which is safe R, OH hasn't Elected a female Gov or Senator and Nan Whaley isn't strong enough to beat Jim Renacci but Ryan is like Fetterman that is strong enough to win, along with Brown and Manchin haven't lost a single GE race, anything can happen in 500 days

We are gonna pass the 3.5 T Stimulus and Raise the Debt thru Reconciliation and the Jan 6 th Commission, benefits Ds

It's a 304 map but things change in 500 days

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We obviously need more than 52 seats to create a wave in the H and Iowa have 4 Congressional districts and Tester is just as flaky on the Filibuster as Sinema and Manchin, I wouldn't leave DC statehood up to him it should be decided by the Senate caucus if we get 53 seats which includes IA, OH, MO or AK or NC 53 knocks out Sinema, Manchin and Sinema on deciding statehood or Crt packing or VR Reform

Outside of guarenteed pickups of WI and PA in a 304 Sen map scenario

MSNBC he said VR should be bipartisan not partisan saying that Filibuster must remain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map don't you see the NH poll, Hassan is statistically tied in NH, Biden is tracking in Rassy 50/48 similarity to  his Pres Election result of 51/46%

It's really a 278 but AZ and GA are now part of freiwall

Generic ballot is tied

2016 is only right in this sense that unless we see Mason Dixon polls in OH, FL, IA and NC they Lean R, just like unless you see a PPP showing D's losing in the Rust belt it Leans D

They both don't poll until it gets to LV we are still one yr out before we get to LV screen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol users are so impatient with polls, there aren't any polling from the red wall states and the Election is 500 days from now anyways.

The Rs want you to believe the Election is over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since memes are apparently the absolute worst part of our current political zeitgeist, I’ll just say that Finkenauer will probably lose by 12-15%, and will almost certainly do worse than Demmings. Wow, such an interesting race with so much to say about it.

Yeah and just like Brown beat Renacci by six points and Cordray came within 3 pts in 2018 and Trump win OH by 8 pts and Portman won by 20 in 2016, let's wait for the real polls Xing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's gonna drive the Statewide Elections is how Ras Smith an Afro American candidate for Gov does against Reynolds, Reynolds have been in office like Baker since 2014, and ran as LT Gov since 2010, it's obviousluly like in MA Gov gonna be some fatigue, and I visited Iowa as an IL, it's not a solid R state and neither is OH, it's a WC state, meaning Ds can complete

Reynolds barely survived in 2018 and only won by 3 against Hubbard and Grassley in 2016 ran against Patty Judge in 2016, a nobody that was Culver's Veep

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fink has no chance and once D's get a credible Give candidate maybe Molly Kelly and Sununu makes up his mind about Sen, we should won both races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Until we start getting polls from these wave insurance seats IA, OH, NC, and we already have FL Ds are 20 pts down it's a 291 Senate and WI and PA are Lean Takeovers and GA is pure Tossup

NH Hassan is down by only 1 Cook has Lean D anyways

Whaley is a disaster for D Nomination for Gov in OH and Pat McCrory is the fav for NC Senate, and D's are gonna barely scrape by in MI, PA and WI Gov this a 291map and KS, MA, and NH GOVS are pure Tossups and MD is Lean Takeaways

Biden is at 50/45 now approvals the same Exact Approvals he was on Election night 51/46% and GA Runoffs a Tossup, that isn't a 375 or 413 map it's max 304 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The DNC should listen to him. They should dump boatloads of money into IA while neglecting winnable races in PA/NH/GA.

How is this guy a political/electoral analyst?

We should listen to you and we are targeting WI as well, lol, the Election is in 500 days

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R for now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

No if Charlie Crist is leading in FL, Fink and Ras Smith can win, underestimate Ras Smith and Fink whom are dangerous, pbower2A already said watch out for the wave, but Rs only go to his Approvals to point out that Biden is at 46% but Biden wherever he is, is far outpacing Trump in 2018 because Trump got impeached during 2018/2019 cycles that's why we won KY Gov and KS

We don't have polls from OH, IA or NC, wait until we start getting polls and don't underestimate Tim Ryan he can beat Josh Mandel whom is leading R Nomination for Senate

But obviously, DeWine is gonna easily win the Gov race, Sherrod Brown along with Manchin and Tim Ryan have never lost a GE before, Brown plans on campaigning for Ryan, Mandel did so poorly against Sherrod Brown in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R for now

Safe R forever.

Fink has a great gathering on Twitter watch she win this race, it's called wave insurance

What if Beasley, Fink and Ryan wins, the GOP party isn't a strong party right now, the only Elections they did well are 2010/2014 2016 Trump lost the PVI

Users especially D's overrate the TRUMP PARTY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why we need Prediction maps we can argue over and over again whom is gonna win and wave insurence, Fink isn't gonna lose by double digits the most Ryan, Beasley Demings and Fink are down bye are 5/8 well within range to win jest yr in a blue waves

This is what Prediction maps are supposed to do but Dave hasn't given us a timetable on prediction map
The 2020 ones weren't even scored

2021 ones are due, cause of the Cali special next month, no Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R....Iowa is more likely to flip than Missouri

True, but both are still safe R.

No they're not wait for a poll, you know Ryan, Fink, Demings, and Beasley are no more than 5/8 points back, this Delta Varient is likely to be over come Nov 2022 thus a blue wave

Sherrod Brown won while Mike DeWine won, and Manchin won as well, Ryan has never lost a GE before and Fink can certainly win in a blue wave, that's why it's called a wave, upsets can happen

If Trump had the sake Approvals as Biden had, he would have swept Call ngress, instead he was being impeached for Ukraine and Russia