NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are meaningless until 2022 anyways, we have a full yr til polls in key states matter

We don't even have polls PA, KS Gov, NC Sen OH Sen all they polled was NH, WI and GA, MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, f***. New Hampshire Democrats need to start tying him to McConnell stat! Otherwise we better hope that we can flip Pennsylvania and defend everything successfully. I'm not so optimistic that all can be accomplished.

WI is on the verge of flipping as well Nelson has lead in two consecutive polls

As of right now it's a 51/48 Senate with GA going to a Runoff

Which will set us up if we keep the H a 52/48 and see if Tester have the backbone to push thru Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see Rs cracking the blue wall in the Senate, the polls on the Natl Level show D's holding the blue wall, Jeanne Shaheen in 2008/ was able to beat John Sununu, the family isn't unbeatable and that was only a D plus 5 Environment

This race hinges alot on our Gubernatorial nominee and Molly Kelly whom almost came back and won in 2018 might run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

I am Endorsing Crist because he is the only candidate that can beat DeSantis, that's why Val Deming's dropped out of Gov race but it's 500 days from an Election anyways

Afro Americans also liked Scott much better than DeSantis since DeSantis is so close to TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

I am Endorsing Crist because he is the only candidate that can beat DeSantis, that's why Val Deming's dropped out of Gov race but it's 500 days from an Election anyways

Afro Americans also liked Scott much better than DeSantis since DeSantis is so close to TRUMP

You said you donated to Bullock and Joe Kennedy III and they both lost, not closely but miserably. And no one unseats a Governor with over 50 % approval rating (more precisely 55 % for De Santis).

But, if you look closely at the polls in FL, Gillium had a lead on DeSantis a mnth before the Election, I don't recall how much it was, but it was like 3-5 pts and he lost.

If Gweyn Graham ran, we would have Gov Graham, and I haven't donated to Crist I donated to Tim Ryan and Jeff Jackson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato assumes that it's a 303 map and D's can't make plays in an improving Economy in 500 not 180 day just like all the other Pundits it's not over for the D's especially in H and they lead on Generic ballot by 10 points


I take everything even the Doomers on this site that predict a Mccarthy slide in H with a grain of salt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

You really believe polls that Hassan and CCM are down 8/10 pts no, Ayotte was leading Hassan until Election day and Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK vwas down to Laxalt

C'mon, it's not Likely R, NH isn't ME

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME has voted for Collins and Olympia Snowe more often than Ayotte and John Sununu, Jeanne Shaheen replace a Sununu since 2008 in Sen, it's Ben 10 yrs since a SUNUNU served in Sen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Sununu almost lost to Molly Kelly, he hasn't been scrutinized yet and neither has DeSantis, they will, it's not even voting time yet and some believe Sununu and Laxalt has the race locked in, No he doesn't


Cook and Sabato still has it Lean D ratings it's not Lean D or Lean R it's a Tossup

The one race he almost lost was against a female he crushed Dem men, he will lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 365 days til the Election, D's are not out of it by any means

But SUNUNU isnt leading by. 9 pts and neither is Laxalt and they are below 50%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu or Laxalt aren't winning by nine pts anyways, I know users are trying to write this state off, but this isn't 2016 anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Sununu isn't nominated it's Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Sununu leads in one poll by nine pts and most of the polls were all within the margin of error, he hasn't been scrutinized yet by Hassan, let's wait until the campaign begins, he's not a shoe in

Another poll had him only leading by one pt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

Maggie Hassan ain’t winning reelection. Even if 2022 was a Trump midterm, both she and Catherine Cortez Masto would have been obliterated by Chris Sununu and Adam Laxalt.

Sununu and Laxalt aren't up 10, it was inflated all the other polls had it much closer

They haven't been releasing polls either, they showed one nine pt lead poll for both and the Rs run with it, a mnth ago

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Civiqs Biden Approval by State:

National: 41/51 (-10)

AZ: 39/54 (-15)
GA: 37/55 (-18)
PA: 40/52 (-12)
NV: 42/50 (-8)
NH: 45/48 (-3)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Obviously these are inflated (in favor of Republicans) and ought to be treated with caution (like every other poll), but this should give the people who think that NH is by far the easiest flip for the GOP or the difference between a R-controlled and a D-controlled Senate at least some pause. Hassan might be a "weak incumbent" and Sununu a "strong candidate," but that only gets you so far in a Biden +7 state which leans strongly to the left in federal races. Even with Sununu running, I’d rather bet on AZ than NH as the easiest pick-up opportunity for the GOP, and GA/NV flipping before NH is not at all out of the question either. Irrespective of this 50-state poll, I’ve never really understood why the conventional wisdom is so bullish on Republicans in NH and bearish on their chances in NV/AZ/PA.

I’m also in complete agreement with OC (!) - it’s fairly likely that that Sununu +8 poll was indeed an outlier, and he’s right that Ayotte was consistently polling better than Johnson/Toomey in the months leading up to the 2016 election. This was also one of the few states where polling did not underestimate R strength at the federal level in 2020 (even while doing so virtually everywhere else, including in states where it traditionally underestimated Democrats, e.g. NV/AZ/TX).

NH is just an extremely difficult state for the GOP, and blue state partisanship will make this race very tough even with everything else going in the party's favor.

Hassan is a great closer she was trailing Ayotte because Sununu won the 2016 and she came back and won just remember that and Rosen was trailing Heller and so was SISOLAK with Laxalt

It's 14 mnths before rte Election..Biden is at 50/48 Approvals in the Fox news poll and Rs haven't lead outside of NH and NV I. A single Blue wall state

The last polls in AZ, GA, PA and WI show that D's were leading and Rs are down 5 pts in VA and got crushed in Cali Recall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol in the last poll Sununu was at 49% he is Doug Christie before the Scandal, at 49% he can be beaten and every poll aside from plus nine poll has it within margin of error

It's a competetive race, but it's not the Gov race where Sununu was blowing out all the candidates 60/40

Just like OH isn't a sure bet for Rs either Tim Ryan is leading Vance and Down 4 to Mandel, OH, NH, NV, GA and AZ are gonna go down to wire

Beasley hurt herself by endorsing Filibuster and DeSantis is very popular in FL since he handled Surfside well, he still gets a bump with Rubio for handling the crisis well
.Cuban Embargo on FL helps Rubio

The reason why DeSantis almost lost in 2018/ he ran with Scott not RUBIO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mattrose is onna keep talking about Sununu and Laxalt all day, move on

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R if Sununu runs, Lean-Likely D if he doesn't.

You believe WI is a Tilt R state too lol, Ayotte was leading Hassan and Hassan won on Election night, NH is like that, it's not over til it's over

Tammy Baldwin won a landslide in 2018 by 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu making his decision in the next few weeks.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Sununu-to-make-decision-on-Senate-run-in-next-two-weeks-On-the-trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-43158917

He's gonna lose, he is only up 3, he overcame NH ANGRY WOMEN because he had a cushion on Molly Kelly in 2018/ like 20 when it closed to 7 Sununu was up 9 now he is only up 3/ not enough to beat Hassan

Hassn was trailing  Ayotte and won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter electorally. Lean R if Sununu runs.
[/quote
No basis for this, Chris SUNUNU lead has been cut to 3 pts instead of nine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How is it Tilt R and Hassan is 3 pts behind not nine PTS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu isn't beating Hassan only up by 3 because he needed a cushion to beat Molly's Kelly he won by 7, if Hassan is down by 3 she is gonna win

Ayotte lead Hassan until the final weekend and Hassan won