Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Economy is gonna get much stronger in 2022 and a 303 map is the base for this Election, but unfortunately for D's, WI, PA, NH, AZ and GA don't have the EC strength that OH, IA, FL and NC does.

If D's want to hold the House in an improving Economy they must competete in OH, IA, NC and FL, and 52 seats is still relying on Tester, Sinema and Manchin to break Filibuster.

So, the expanded 375 map without TX is the best interest even if they fail

But, as of today, it's a 303 map , but polls show weakness in OH due to a blk county Mahoning County changing party stripes from R to D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Being a nurse has replaced Doctor or Teaching jobs for females and more males are going to Law school and becoming Bankruptcy/Debt Consolidation lawyers there is hope for this Economy but yeah, Factory work is mainly the job that is hiring in this Covid Recession and it's very difficult to work in a factory because everything is based on speed and timing even breaks and lunches and you have to keep up with a quota

Security is a bad profession too, it's an on call job and sometimes you have to travel very far even with a car it's bad. It's full time or part time

Don't forget you have to wear a mask while working at all times

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still no polls in IA, OH, FL or NC, and Abby FINKEAUAR just announced that she is running, we must ask ourselves why no polls because we are probably gonna have a 303 map in a Recession, Rs narrowly fav to win H, 278 Govs and D's win a 51/48 Senate map, with GA as a Runoff, since RGovs are snatching Unemployment away as fast as they can

I am not on Unemployment but let's remember it's a savings account that states use to balance their budgets it's not free money.

If there isn't any savings account you can't balance the budget especially with 300 going extra that we never gave out to Unemployed. Obama gave 50.00

That's why it's adjudicated when you are laid off, if DGovs were installed they would give money back to Unemployment, the R Govs know what they are doing in addition to voter suppression

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has done a good job, Biden cannot fix the Covid crisis but he can get everyone vaccinated. We are in a new normal


You know Covid and Wildfires are caused by Fracking and oil drilling since Ronald Reagan fracking the Environment has gone down and this the result of it, no rain on the WC due to no Hurricanes anymore in Mexico all the thunderstorms migrate to Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Japan and Hawaii

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not saying that we will get 56 seats but Rubio is only 5 pts ahead of Grayson, if the Rs don't pass voting rights in Fall, Burr, Toomey, Portman, Daines, Ernst, Rubio and Romney, Collins and Murkowski, the Rs in OH, IA, NC and FL in Sen not Gov race where our H races are, will lose anyways along with WI, PA, NH and GA

Ron Johnson is DONE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Rs get throttled in Midterms all the Rs lose except DeSantis and Abbott after they blocked the Commission

No more thinking we can't win wave insurence seats, everything is up in the air in H and S wise

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election. 

You do know Biden Approvals haven't changed much since the Election 53/39% that means a 303 not 375 or 415 EC map, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that D's should or shouldn't expand the Map, but they should expect a 303 map on Election 2022 and Manchin should get rid of Filibuster and pass voting rights and DC Statehood, but we are still in a Pandemic type Recession, we can't expect a boom Economy and have an extremely large Electoral victory.

Manchin not getting rid of Filibuster is making things worst not better and once the gerrymandering begins we are locked out for a decade in H

That's exactly what Beto have been saying all along

QU polls showing 9 pt Generic ballot leads must be taken with a grain of salt they use RV instead of LV until the Election season, it's probably plus 2.5 D, in that scenario D's replicate especially in Senate a 52/48 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election.  

This does seem to be a pattern, among most voters of color actually. I just think it's too early to somehow think this will be inevitable on top of the polling industry not yet earning trust back.

Still, even with all that, I don't think we should anticipate any Democratic nominee or President to ever do as well as Obama did with most voters of color. Let's keep our expectations grounded.

The Economy is improving all the time, we don't know what to expect in 2022/2024, Biden will win a landslide in 2024/ Covid will be over by 2024/ not 2022 as we hoped

But, Manchin needs the break the Filibuster to allow HR 1 DC Statehood and Commission passed a Trifecta isn't guarenteed in 2022

Biden can win a 375 not a 415 Election in 2024 if the Covid virus is Eradicated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

An incumbent President can lose support even with an improving economy. Obama gained nothing on 2008 despite the absence of gaffes and scandals... and whacking the worst terrorist in American history. Maybe Mitt Romney was the strongest challenger ever against an above-average President. Maybe people who voted for Obama in a panic about an economic meltdown found that once that danger was past they could go back to their old political ways.

Our INCUMBENTs in 2024 OH, VA, MT, WVA, PA, WI, MN, ME, WI, AZ,  and NV look much strong than the open R seats in 2022 in MO, OH and NC
 
Under 30 crowd don't vote that much in Midterms anyways

Sherrod Brown has a better chance at winning than Ryan although we have only 1 poll from OH in 2022 showing a tied race, and Tester hasn't lost a single race in MT, because the best recruit Rs had was Daines and Gianforte is Gov and doesn't plan to challenge Tester

As for Manchin he is likely to lose an R being Redistricted out but we have Rick Scott in FL more vulnerable than Rubio as wave insurance

That's why if we lose the H narrowly in 2022/ we can win it back with stronger turnout in 2024., But if Hunter Biden is investigated that changes to 2026

It all depends on how many seats Rs net.gaun 0/15 we will win it back possibly in 2024/ but if it's 15 or more 2026

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must be all aware of RV v LV screen when we are looking at General Election matchups when we see IPSOS showing double digits leads for Biden over DeSantis and Trump

Same with Generic ballot how is the D's up 9 on Generic ballot and it was tied a few weeks ago and Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 60% Approvals that shows you right there his Polls are matching his Approvals that he had on Election day 51/46%

That's how we were fooled in 2020 when they showed Biden up 17 in WI or Biden up 14% in a QU poll. RV not LV

That's why they're not showing any polls in IA, OH, NC and FL Senate races because D's are behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom endangered of losing the recall it's tied 45/45% I might vote to recall Newsom

I told you Generic ballot plus 9 in a Pandemic is nonsense

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A wave is coming in 2022, that's why Rs are getting nervous and passing voter Suppression Laws we are gonna keep the blue wall, and keep the Senate, but with a wave Rs cannot take the H and it's crucial for Rs to take the H to get closer to 2024 to get Ron DeSantis as Prez, if he survives a Crist challenge, I was emailed a poll showing Grayson only 5 pts behind Rubio, I thought the Gov and Senate races were over apparently not

Rs are -9 on QU Generic ballot

We need 53 seats plus the H secure DC Statehood and Filibuster reform that includes 2/3 from IA OH, NC and FL since GA is gonna go to a Runoff anyways, we cannot enter 2023 with not enough votes in Sen again to not push Filibuster reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are too overconfident about 2022 you see what happened in NM1 yesterday, there can be a wave that's why I say, the Election is in 500 days not 180 day from now, a wave can definitely happen with Rs down 9 on Generic Ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be a jobs report coming out at the End of May and it's not gonna look good for Biden it will verify some job growth but not nearly enough and it's gonna verify Bidens mediocre Approvals, 51/49%

Yahoo news and MSNBC reports, but R states already got to d of 300

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron DeSantis has a 60 percent Approvals so it really doesn't matter about FL and he is likely to Redistricted 5 D's out of office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Newsom doesn't get 50% on the recall, it's Gov Cox and Newsom is at 45% in the Recall

So all these rosey maps may not even matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Biden Approvals have gone down, he has only passed Covid relief nothing else, you gotta have accomplishments, not just good Approvals

38% in OK

Biden isn't 59% Prez anymore

It's a long way to the recall but it's Gov Cox if Newsom doesn't get 50% and it's tied 45%, Cali gov is endangered of flipping R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

78 percent has Rs winning the H
78 percent has D's winning the S
And D's are favored in Govs Election of keeping at least 278 but this now we don't know about Cali Recall

Newsom is giving out a lottery for people to get Covid vaccines, it may help or may not Newsom has to get 50% to avoid a Recall or it's Gov Cox

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before its a 303 map, NC, FL and TX are leaning R and we might not win GA, NC Leans R unless there is a poll showing Ds ahead in NC

Newsom is endangered of losing because he is at 45 percent and he has to make it to 51 percent to avoid the recall and Orange Suburbs have very rich people and can vote R

But, if we lose the recall Gov Cox can't do too much with an D Supermajority Legislature and Villigosa or Steyer WOULD run against him in 2022 and win the seat back

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Biden got 32% in OK in 2020, 38% approval seems...fine?

Considering that approval numbers are the best proxy for the next election until we have at the least the contest between Joe Biden and Gen. Eric Republican,  that is really good news. The usual ceiling that I recognize for an incumbent is 100-DIS, which means that President Biden could never get more than 47% of the vote in Oklahoma.

This is consistent with President Biden getting 54-56% of the popular vote. The biggest swings would be in states in which Biden most got trounced.  

Biden is not getting 54/56 percent of the popular vote in a 304 Election map it was 51/46 and the Ds are gonna replicate the 303 blue wall in the Senate in 2022 and will do the same in 2024

303 was 51/46 is consistent with a 303 map we are likely to win 1 OH, NC, FL are R IA not all of them in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't gonna be a landslide with Biden at 51/49 Approvals the same as his Approvals as he had on Election day 51/46 percent

A mini landslide which is AZ, WI, GA, PA, NH Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was 59 percent approvals in April, what happened? I am not moved by these RV polls instead of LV polls just like same Q Up in a RV poll in 2020 had Biden plus 14 during the height of George Floyd protests and then the 30 and under crowd didn't vote and instead of 415 map we get t a 303 map

I heard Biden whom didn't win his Nomination on his own needed Obama help is asking for Obama help to get more people enrolled in Obamacare

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a RV poll not a LV poll, we must be weary because they still won't give up OH, IA, NC or FL SEN polls but I was emailed Alan Grayson was 5 pts behind Rubio and Ryan and Jackson are blue dogs and IA have 2 female office holders already and Fink can be the 3rd, I can see us losing NH if Sununu runs and picking up IA, but until they start showing us OH, IA, NC and FL polls, it's still a 303 map but Baker will lose because he has been in office too long already and only 3 pts ahead of Maura Healey, Healey or Downing will beat him, Muhammad said Baker is gonna win, no he wont

OH, IA, NC and FL, remember will secure the H, which we are an underdog in, because HR 1 won't pass but Senate we can win without the H


As of now we are underdogs in H, Favs in S 3o3 map and Favs to win 278 Gov map but that can change in 500 days, we will know if Newsom survives recall, he is tied at 45 not 20 pts ahead because he gave Stimulus money not to everyone but only to those with EITC Steyer would have given it to everyone, we all pay sales taxes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maggie Hassan is gonna win, as soon as Molly Kelly or some other D announces to run for Gov, that will help Hassan, Shaheen was in similar situations in 2008 against John Sununu and Scott Brown and 2014 was an R plus 5 Environment.Hassan helped Shaheen to pull out a narrow Victory over Brown in 2014, too

Hassan isn't out of it but clearly pbower2A Approvalls map is too rosey and Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 60 since it's a RV not LV sample and Biden was at 59 percent after SOTU, since he got a bump, NC is R Leaning not D fav and so is Iowa

But, WARNOCK may or may not win a Runoff