Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Along with AZ, OH was the only state to split voting in 2018, I expect DeWine to win, OH isn't gonna elect a female Whaley Gov, the next female Gov is Molly Kelly in NH.  Brown is all in for Ryan, because if Ryan loses, Brown can lose too, in 2024

But Tim Ryan, Joe Cunningham, can certainly win and Sand if he runs for Gov or Senator can win in IA.

Brown, Ryan, Sand, Cunningham all have WC appeal and so does Charlie Crist

In a D plus 5 Environment there will be split voting. It happens all the time with House races split voting for Govs and Senate, that's why we still have a member in IA and have Reynolds and Ernst's as Gov and Sen

NC split in 2020 between Gov Koop and Sen Tillis.

Trump created an Insurrectionists the R brand is very polarizing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah as wave insurence seats OH, NC and IA D's have not a zero chance but 1/3 chance because the Covid Recession is ending and the Economy is coming back

We can wind up with 230 seats in the H and 55 Senate seats when the Economy comes all the way back before Nov 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

,2024 Prez threads, Rs are going bananas over defeating Biden in 2024, everyone loves Joe because everyone got 2K cheques plus Unemployment benefits stimulus. There might another coming says Warren in Sept, particularly Economic Recovery

That was not right that Newsom gave 600, bonuses to only those that worked, Steyer WOULDNT have done that, gave it to everyone
No
Like I said before there is gonna be split vote between IA, MO, OH and NC we lead on Generic ballot anyways, there is frequent split voting between State Legislature and Gov


We won the PVI by.6 in 2008/2012 with Biden against McCain, that's how we are gonna keep H
Ryan/DeWine, Rubio/Crist and Scott/Cunningham

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

They were off because Trump improved before Election day, but went back down to a 40% Prez, after Insurrectionists
 If the Election happened in Jan like Rs lost GA, Trump would have lost in a landslide

We don't have a full blown Recovery yet, and Covid will be over by 2022 before Election day

Conservatives think the Election is today or tomorrow, it's not, it's 500 DAYS FROM NOW. Rs and D's received 2K and 300 on Unemployment and Warren says we are gonna get more in Sept

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny how users get extended benefits and Stimulus cheques and they are naysay on D's chances.  All on CSPAN voters call in even in red states and say they are voting D in 2022 since they got stimulus.

Some users on this forum are getting 300 extra in unemployment and some of them are Rs, guess what if Warnock and Ossoff hadn't won their benefits would have been cut.

I watch CSPAN, not Fox news and they tell the truth on R voters, that's why Biden has a 60% Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obvious D's need to win OH, IA, NC and FL, that's how we are gonna keep the H, if D's only focus on WI, PA, NH and GA as I said before, they can lose the H

It's a 538 Election , not a 279 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 538 not 279 Election because our H races are in 538 EC votes and split voting happens all the time between state Legislature races and Gov and it can happen in 2022 between Ryan/DeWibe, Rubio/Crist and Jewel Kelly and Cheri Beasley in MO and NC

We must Elect Afro Americans as Senators and it's a VBM Election not same day voting, I don't care how many drop boxes Rs delete, you can drop you mail ballot at Post office

We need to break Filibuster and pass Reparations just like Reagan passed Per Capita for Japanese and Native Americans

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DLC put a user Prediction in the Congressional thread, and it's basically the same as Cook and Sabato, no way WI stays R with Evers and Nelson leading in the polls, that's why DLC is speaking out against 60% Approvals

I am optimistic about a blue wave with Biden net positive 54/44 all the Pundits are wrongly predicting an R takeover of the H due to Redistricting, no way Insurrectionists R party whom won't firm a Commission due to protecting Trump, Cruz and Hawley which is much worse than Hunter take the H

I have been pessimistic about D's chances but we don't have our user Predictions yet, we can change our mind again and again and again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump held on because he was close to 50% before Insurrectionists, he became a 32% approvals Prez Again after Insurrectionists

D's need to Expand the Senate map beyond Wzi, PA, GA and NH, and we can in 500 days to win more seats in Congress

If Trump had an Economy like this he would be expanding the Senate map and H map and Portman, Blunt WOULDNT have retired
Beasley, Ryan are gaining steam and Jackson on Act blue in Donations and I will donate to them not the 278 candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden already said the Deep hole isn't gonna be solved in 100 days, yesterday by 2022/ and certainly by 2024 it will be solved, users on this forum are so quick to jump on the R bandwagon, but if Trump had these polls he would be expanding the R Congressional map too, 60% and Rs would probably wound win up with 241 seats if the shoe was on the other foot.

But, it's not and expanding the D map is in our favor not Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Change again back to 306 FREIWAL
WI, GA, PA, NH goes D for Senate 52/48 and a Tossup for H

All the R states IA, AR, SC, TN, MT, MS are cancelling Federal Stimulus payments of 300 WHY SHOULD The UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS GET 300 MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE, those states are voting SOLID R IN 2022

We must ask ourselves, Where are the polls, the reason why they haven't been polling nothing is happening except the States that tilted D the last time

Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 60%

AZ, NH and GA D's should be nervous about

Manchin needs to lose in 2024 he is gonna cost D's the H in 2022,

Right track wrong track numbers 54/44 please itd probably even or below 46/54

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In my dream map scenario, if Biden is in fact at 59 percent Approvals

D's will win 241 seats in the H, win FL, OH, MO or KY, NC as well as 303 base states in the Senate that good us 56/44 and DC and PR Statehood WOULD give us 60/44 enough to withstand Rs objections to Reparations for Afro Americans

Of course it's depending on ERADICATING COVID in 500 days of course😆😆😆

But, D's can't afford to give up on IA, OH, NC or FL since we need to expand the battleground to keep the H

The Liz Cheney is gonna backfire, Cheney is gonna criticize Rs until she is voted out next yy

Biden is far ahead of 46 percent TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden now has a higher approval rating than Bill Clinton had at this point in his presidency.

D's are behind by 10 pts in FL and they lost FL by 3, if you do the calculation then D's aren't gonna get very far in red state territory.

In addition the S is throwing people off extended Unemployment benefits for not taking suitable work

It's still 500 days from now, but as we can tell it's a Neutral Environment

A 52/48 we don't know what type of wave we are gonna get in the H and even if we get 52 seats it may not be enough, Tester has too expressed opposition to Filibuster reform, D's need 53 seats

But, it's still early and we might get OH or NC as a wave insurence seats due to McCarthy and holding out on the Jan 6th Commission and a bare Majority in the H with Speaker Jefferies

Ryan and BEASLEY can still win in this Environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Clinton lost because Rs had a Progressive Agenda for Balanced budgets and term limits Trump and Bush W blew up the deficit because we had two Recessions

McCarthy only offers the same failed Trump policies, no Insurrectionists Commission, more oil drilling and tax cuts for the rich that got Boehner voted out in

Mike DeWine, McCain, Coleman, Judd Gregg, Vonivich were all mavericks that supported bold agendas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She hasn't really done much of anything as Veep, she is supposed to handle the boarder crisis but she hasn't done it yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The user post job Harris is doing but where are the Approvals of McCarthy and Mcconnell and Trump whom wants to take Congress 32%.

,The wave is gonna come from the Senate and Gov mansions, not the H and every INCUMBENT Govs got 51% D's don't have to win the S except for Latino districts in Red states, but Rs have to win the N in order to get the Prez and all our INCUMBENTs are at 50%


Veeps and Speakers are historically have bad numbers, but Harris far superior than missing Pence, just like Cheney whom only was visible during Iraq war

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Edwards, Mondale, KERRY, Obama, Biden, Mayor Daley and Rahm Emanuel were connected to David Axelrod Law Firm

That's why Obama was considering Edwards before sex scandal became full blown in 2008.

Gephardt would have won VA or CO in 2004 because 911 and the Bin Laden tape ruined Kerry Edwards chances of becoming Prez

OH was lost due to SSM, but CO and VA didn't have SSM or Kerry could of won IA, NV and NM that would have gotten Kerry to 270

This is why Kerry is in Biden Cabinet and was in Obamas cabinet

That's why Bayh wasn't picked as Obama's Veep

Hillary could of picked Tom Perez he could have debated Pence much better than Kaine

But, Harris is far superior than Cheney or Pence, Katrina and 2006 wouldn't have been bad if Colin Powell was the Veep or Condi Rice instead of Cheney, since they would have went and saved Blacks in New Orleans

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A wave can happen, Minorities are often underpolled, AZ has Kelly ahead by 10, Rs thought he was vulnerable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1392568612779700224

Kamala Harris for President in 2024 or 2028 is not going to end well. She is loathed in the Rust Belt just as much as Hillary was.

What?  Hillary was loathed in Rust belt because WC females didn't like the Adultery that Bill Clinton did with her as well as BENGHAZI

She will pick Beshear and he will help her in Rust belt

Kaine was picked and D's already had VA locked down

You can't compare Harris to Hillary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris is up 12 on DeSantis, that proves this poll is bogus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Surprised to see someone from Georgia saying that.

A January runoff election with unrepresentative turnout patterns in a deeply polarized (and thus easier-to-model) state that is not only zooming to the left but also a place where Democrats benefit from unusually D-friendly migration patterns and 'low-propensity' D voter participation/activation does not negate the consistent patterns observed on a national level in every November election since 2014. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that many of these polls are quite clearly inflating Biden's approval numbers.

Our House races are in 50 states not 279 states a wave doesn't happen a yr before Election day

Remember that D's weren't on track to win 33 seats in 2017, they were only on track to win 10/15 the same in 2009 Boehner was on track to win a handful of seats.

Biden isn't a 46 percent Prez that we saw in a Trump Midterm

But Dems need to expand the battleground beyond WI, PA, NH and GA


To have a shot, and split voting can happen in 2018 DeWine and Brown won in 202o Koop and Tillis won


Beasley, Jackson and Ryan have been raising them Ms of money on Act blue

OH Senate was well within margin of error and D's have a shot in NC and IA,  Summer of 2033 is when we should look for a blue wave, Generic ballot is D 5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is still a 46 percent Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

Subtracting ten means Biden lost PA by three.  He won by one, so it’s more like subtract six.

I think it's possible the polling errors are more of a Trump phenomena than Biden approvals or even the GOP as whole. Polls in the 2018 midterms were largely correct. Biden is definitely a popular POTUS so far.

We have a Senate race in 2022 and 2024 we didn't have one in 2020, we will win PA by 7 next time with Bob Casey Jr and Fetterman up we aren't gonna win PA by such a narrow margin next time

But, Trump never been above 50, GA still has him as a 46 Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why does Mohommad not believe in blue waves, he thinks everything is gonna be close, and he was the one that posted 60 percent approvals for Biden, D's believe in blue waves not close Elections.  Except for 2016 and 2020, we have had blue waves 1992, 96, 2006, 2018, and hopefully 2022, D's lead on Generic ballot by 5.  Guess what in 2008/12 we won OH, iA, NC, FL and we won PVI by 0.6.

We didn't win 33 H seats in Summer of 2017 we won them in Summer of 2018 with ads, McCarthy and the Rs are back tracking on Insurrectionists and removing Liz Cheney isn't gonna help them with swing female voters, non Cuban Latinos, Arabs and Blks outside of WY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a misconception about 2018, that D's all of a sudden got up one day and had 33 H seats in the bag, polls a yr before an Election are meaningless when it come to blue waves. If we had 33 H seats in bag we would have won 50 H seats like in 2008 when we were at 230 already