Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The point I was making is that D's won the PVI by 3.1 and Biden is at 53% Approvals that fits in what will be a neutral cycle D's netting a 53/47 Senate and WI, PA, NH, GA and NC or OH goes D.  OH is a bellweather and it will be close to natl average

But, Biden isn't at 60% approvals due to Covid, everyone knows 1400 checks should of been 2K or 2600 and the only jobs that came back so far aren't White collar jobs but factory and airline jobs slave labor unless you work in reservations or flight attendant and they want you to be a female mostly

If the Economy is back in 500 days it will be a landslide

Govt guarentee or Green jobs would take care of the jobs that no one wants

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll he is at 35% and GA is a Runoff state, in a neutral cycle D's would win WI, PA and NH and lose GA due to a Runoff, the chances of WARNOCK getting 50.1 is very low and even if Abrams run she won't get 50.1 percent either to avoid a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Pandemic, Biden isn't gonna have runaway approvals and the chances of a  Supermajority Senate is dim due to the Pandemic, the most Senators Dems at this point is not 56 but probably 53 WI, PA, NH, GA and probably NC or OH. OH, NC are wave insurance in case D's lose GA in a Runoff, no one knows what happens in a Runoff

As I have been saying all along a D3.1 Election is probable they won the PVI last time by that much and hold the Trifecta, not a D plus 8 Election where Ds win IA, FL, OH and NC

They haven't even polled none of those states except WI, and NH, and AZ is a pure Tossup, Kelly is the fav but he is Vulnerable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last poll had it R Nominee 47 WARNOCK 45 I am not arguing about a win in GA, WARNOCK or Abrams have to get 50.1 to avoid the Runoff,
anything can happen in a the Runoffs. The ratings of GA, AZ or NH as safe D are wrong they are Tossups

AZ is gonna be close too until we find a Gubernatorial nominee, Kelly is far from safe, and then there is NH, Hassan voted against minimium wage

Every poll has Sununu ahead, but it's a Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's true that we have never seen a measured pbower2A Approvall map they have all been rosey scenarios

We should expect a neutral Environment until this Covid is over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I were Ds are would be worried about all three NH, AZ and GA, Immigration reform is not the answer to refugees crossing our boarder ever since 2007 Immigration reform has been the highlight for both parties

What happens if we pass Immigration reform and amnesty and PR Statehood and Covid and boarder crisis are still out of control

That's why Rs can still win the H TX is betting new H Districts and they are gonna be R Gerrymandering

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao Florida. I actually want Florida and Texas to switch positions in the states coalition for both parties. The Republicans can have Florida if Texas becomes a serious battleground.

You really think TX is a battleground and the only person that beats Abbott is McCounghey

TX is betting 4 new seats and they probably gonna be R gerrymandering, and FL is netting 2 and DeSantis is gonna be R gerrymandering as long as Covid sticks around

Don't forget in 2010/2014 D's in the S were wiped out, we are approaching a midterm with Covid and a refugee crisis and S is netting Seats I'm Redistricting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone knows that the Trump party is now the Insurrectionists party anyways, and Trump, Cruz and Hawley are still out there with no accountability

But Obama was at 60/40 Approvals a yr before the 2010 Tea party Revolt

Midterms are determined by GENERIC BALLOT, NOT BY PREZ APPROVALS AND DS LOST THE S IN 2010/2014/ MIDTERMS, BUT OBAMA WON REELECTION IN 2012, the S is where Biden is having a hard time with not the N where 278 blue wall


If Rs win the H it would be in TX and FL where there is an R Gerrymandering

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we looking so hard at Approvals, as I said before Obama was at 60/40 the yr before the 2010 Tea Party Revolt, but Obama won Reelection based on the 278 blue wall, the S is slowly drifting R as long as Covid and border crisis remain a problem. Same with Biden he will win not for the S but the 278 blue wall.  AZ can easily go back R and GA too, Kelly is weak but still a slight fav

Do you guys really think it's gonna be a D plus 8 Election, no it's not, the zone of probability it D plus 3.1 like last time enough to hold the Trifecta and AZ, NH and GA are Vulnerable and D's in TX and FL  in the H are Vulnerable too

Unless Covid is Eradicated, it's gonna be a close Election next Fall. You see the state by state polling isn't matching with a 60 percent Approvals, there are jobs but they are slave labor factory jobs

The Midterms are based on Generic ballot numbers not Prez Approvals and Biden won't be at 57 percent next fall

By the way 1400 wasn't enough stimulus,  it should of been 2K or 2600

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of Today with DC Statehood it would be a 53/48 Senate WI, PA and NH goes D and GA goes to a runoff and narrowly Hold the H

Gov resurrect the blue wall win AZ and MD lose KS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I saw the Generic ballot it says 47/42 D it's looking good for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has the same exact Approvals that he had entering office as I said before it's a 51/49 Senate with D's going to a Runoff in GA and winning WI, PA and NH and the H will hinge on FL and TX Redistricting.

If I had to guess Rs +10 in House and D's net 2 in the Senate reverse of 2018 but anything can happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remingtor Trump 53/Biden 38 in MO

Yeah MO Senate is Safe R, all the open seats except for PA are Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden 53/39% Approvals are the same exact Approvals he got on Election day I don't see the S voting D, it's a 52/48 Senate unless Covid is Eradicated that's why we got a 15 or Trump lead in MO, the S is safe R as of now

But, Biden doesn't need the S to get Reelected, just like Obama didn't, MO just cofirmed what we already know all open Senate seats other than PA are Lean R

We haven't changed since that 306 map after Election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Tim Ryan announcement D's can certainly win OH and IA this time with Sand, I am invested in Ryan, but NC will go R with Socialisic Cheri Beasley if she wins nomination instead of Jackson

This isn't just about Biden, the R party have seen long term damage from their Jan 6th, Insurrectionists, Females and Minorities outnumber WC males

Mccarthy still thinks he can win H if the Generic ballot is ,47/42 D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, we know all these urgencies to get Statehood and Crt packing done is gone out the window with Biden Crt packing plan, Bennett, CCM, Kelly, Durbin, Hassan just dismantled the Commission on Crt packing by saying no to it

PR is already a Commonwealth, this is the same Crt that gave Biden the Prez and Breyer isn't retiring

PR probably doesn't get Statehood it was part of the Crt Packing plan, and DC Statehood doesn't have 50 votes now

We can all relax now, that's why Schumer is coy about getting rid of Filibuster, he doesn't know about DC Statehood, and Rs would retaliate and block judges and Cabinet thru unanimous consent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Insurrectionists, on Jan 6th damaged the R party, it's not all about Biden who is a DLC Dem that issued 1400 checks and there is need for more stimulus, it should of been 2K or 2600

That's why Manchin is gonna cut his 2.3T package to 800B but a likely scenario is a D 3=1Election not an 8 pt D PVI Election keeping the H and 53/47 Senators, WI, PA, NH, GA, OH

Biden 53/39% is the same exact Approvals he got on Election night

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bidens approvals are about the same as on Election day we will get a PVI 3.1 D Election, not a 5.0 and certainly not an 8.0 D, Approval ratings in various states are misleading due to split voting. pVI 3.1 is enough to hold H, though

D's can win H seats on TX and FL , NC but not win statewide, as well as OH, Gov and H races go R while Senate race just like in 2018 goes D
Beasley or Val Deming's won't win, but Sand in IA and Ryan in OH can

That's why R overconfidence is misleading, but if Covid is improved substantially, it will be a 5 or 8 pt Election in 500 fays

WI, PA, NH are Lean D Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New CNN poll actually has Harris's approval higher than Biden's!

Biden job approval: 53/43 (+10)
Harris VP job approval: 53/38 (+15)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/04/28/rel3bbiden100days.pdf

This Approvals is the same exact number Biden got on Election night 53/39

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless we see an Eradication of Covid, the EC map will replicate what it did last time Senate map WI, PA, NH and GA.

OH, IA, TX, NC and FL remain R states at least at Senate and Gov level, D's can win Latino Districts to keep H in D hands in those states, that's we got a 15 pt MO poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Insurrectionists Trump should not be back as Prez, Rs still want him back, naturally he wants to be back on TV but he won't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

QU hasn't polled anything but Biden Approvals, they haven't polled NJ Gov race, yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm sure polls that completely shat on measuring Trump  by getting none of the low propensity Rs magically got it corrected now

Looks

*D+16 sample*

Ah

Trump was near 50 percent on Election night before the Insurrectionists, Females have turned on Rs since Jan 6th, which Rs aren't taking responsibility over


Trump and Mccarthy and Mcconnell are at 25 to 32 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's interesting, that Sir Mohommad posts these 60 percent Approvals and he doesn't believe in blue waves, he believes Rs are gonna sweep FL, OH and FL statewide races, I have debated with him many times

Rs don't have a monopoly on IA, OH, FL or NC, we were n them in 2008/12 and Brown won in 2018 Senate race, just like Rs never had a monopoly on GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to worry about DeSantis he is losing by 17 pts to Biden, he is a ROOKIE